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Sensex, Nifty charts (Sep 20, 2019): short covering causes euphoric upward breakouts

22 hours ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity during the first four trading days of the week, but were net buyers on Fri. (Sep. 20). Their total net selling was worth Rs 33.7 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on all five days of the week. Their total net buying was worth Rs 48.2 Billion, as per provisional figures.After three disappointing 'booster' packages, the Finance Minister hit the ball out of the park by announcing a significant cut in corporate taxes on Fri. Sep 20. Sensex and Nifty soared - trapping unwary short sellers - and business leaders sang 'Hallelujah'. The GST council announced reduction in rates for hotels, outdoor caterers, precious/semi-precious stones but hiked rates for caffeinated drinks and railway wagons. No major relief was provided to auto and cement sectors.BSE Sensex index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Sensex fell steadily on the back of sustained FII selling, and dropped to test support from the lower edge of the 'suppo..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Sep 18, 2019)

4 days ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on all three trading days this week. Their total net selling was worth Rs 25.2 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on all three trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 11.7 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's WPI-based inflation was 1.08% in Aug '19 - the same as in Jul '19 but much lower than 4.62% in Aug '18. Rise in inflation of food items was balanced by deflation in fuel and power.The Finance Ministry is considering a fourth 'booster' dose to revive a sliding economy, after the first three 'booster' doses failed to generate any significant revival in 'animal spirits'. For the past seven weeks, the daily bar chart pattern of Nifty has been consolidating sideways with a slight downward bias, touching progressively lower tops. The 'death cross' (marked by grey oval) of the 50 day EMA below the 200 day EMA at the beginning of the month had technically confirmed a bear market. Bulls are fighting ha..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Sep 13, 2019): continue to consolidate sideways

7 days ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
During another holiday-shortened trading week, FIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon. and Fri. (Sep. 9 and 13), but were net buyers on Wed. and Thu. (Sep. 11 and 12). Their total net buying was worth Rs 4.6 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on Thu., but were net buyers on the other three trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 19.0 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's merchant exports slipped by 6.1% to US $26.13 Billion in Aug '19. Imports dropped by 13.4% to US $39.58 Billion. The trade deficit of $13.45 Billion narrowed from $17.92 Billion in Aug '18, but widened marginally from $13.43 Billion in Jul '19.In Jul '19, India's Index of Industrial Production (IIP) rose to 4.3% from a downwardly revised 1.2% in Jun '19, but was lower than 6.5% in Jul '18. CPI-based consumer inflation in Aug '19 rose to a 10 month high of 3.2% (due to higher vegetable prices) against 3.1% in Jul '19.BSE Sensex index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Sensex..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Sep 06, 2019): consolidating inside support zones

14 days ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
During a holiday-shortened trading week, FIIs were net sellers of equity on all four days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 52.7 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on all four trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 44.6 Billion, as per provisional figures.The market started a pullback rally from Wed. Sep 4 expecting announcement of a third set of measures for boosting India's sagging economy. Instead, the Finance Minister promised to consider more measures after consultations.After strong rallies, prices of gold and silver corrected sharply during Thu. and Fri. (Sep 5 and 6). With global stock markets on recovery paths, some more near-term downside in precious metals is possible.BSE Sensex index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Sensex dropped sharply and lost 770 points on Tue. Sep 3 due to heavy selling by FIIs after the long week end. There was some recovery during the rest of the week, but the index closed below its three EMAs inside the..
                 

Nifty chart: a long-term outlook

18 days ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
After Monday's holiday, FIIs were net sellers of equity on both trading days this week. Their total net selling was worth Rs 37.5 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on both trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 25.6 Billion, as per provisional figures.The IHS Markit India Manufacturing PMI slipped to a 15 month low of 51.4 in Aug '19 from 52.5 in Jul '19, but remained above 50 indicating growth. The Services PMI also declined to 52.4 in Aug '19 from 53.8 in Jul '19. The Composite (Manufacturing + Services) PMI moved down to 52.6 in Aug '19 from 53.9 in Jul '19.GST collection in Aug '19 slipped to Rs 98.2 Billion from Rs 1.02 Trillion in Jul '19, but was 4.5% higher than Rs 93.9 Billion collected in Aug '18.The weekly line chart of Nifty has breached two up trend lines drawn from the Feb '16 low (also called Fan Lines - marked FL1 and FL2). This is a sign that the long-term up trend is getting weak, but is not yet over.As per Corrective Fan Principle, downward breach of..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Aug 30, 2019): bears use technical bounces to sell

21 days ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
For the month of Aug '19, FIIs were net sellers of equity worth Rs 148.3 Billion. It was their fourth straight month of net selling. DIIs more than matched them. They were net buyers of equity worth Rs 209.3 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's GDP growth slumped to 5% during Apr-Jun '19 - lowest growth in 6 years; much lower than 8% growth during Apr-Jun '18, and even lower than 5.8% growth during Jan-Mar '19.India's fiscal deficit during Apr-Jul '19 stood at Rs 5.47 Trillion, which is nearly 78% of the full year (FY 2019-20) deficit target of Rs 7.03 Trillion. Revenue collection is weak due to the economic slowdown. BSE Sensex index chart patternThe following comments were made in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex: "All four indicators are showing positive divergences...by rising higher while the index dropped lower. That is a clear signal that precedes a technical bounce."Finance Minister's first 'booster package' was announced on Fri. A..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Aug 21, 2019)

one month ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon. and Wed. (Aug 19 and 21) but net buyers on Tue. this week. Their total net selling was worth Rs 7.0 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on all three trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 10.4 Billion, as per provisional figures.According to the RBI Governor, moderation in CPI inflation including food, fuel and contraction in merchandise imports is actually reflecting a slowdown in domestic demand. This raises hopes that RBI may cut interest rates more rapidly.SEBI has decided to simplify and rationalise the existing regulatory framework for FIIs by easing operational constraints and compliance requirements. FIIs will now be recategorised into two classes instead of three.The daily bar chart pattern of Nifty has broken out below a bearish 'rising wedge' pattern and is poised to fall further. Note that the index had fallen below bearish 'rising wedge' and 'flag' patterns in July '19.The falling middle Bollinger Band (20 day SMA, mar..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Aug 07, 2019)

one month ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on all three trading days this week. Their total net selling was worth Rs 45.1 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on all three trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 46.9 Billion, as per provisional figures.IHS Markit India's Services PMI rose to a 1 year high of 53.8 in Jul '19 from 49.6 in Jun '19. A figure above 50 indicates expansion. The Composite PMI (Manufacturing + Services) rose to an 8 month high of 53.9 in Jul '19 from 50.8 in Jun '19.RBI cut the repo rate by 35 bps (0.35%) to 5.4% today, and kept the door open for lowering rates further but flagged worries over economic growth prospects. It was the fourth straight cut in repo rate since Feb '19.An interesting pattern according to Corrective Fan Principle is developing on the long-term weekly bar chart pattern of Nifty. Note the effects of the two trend lines - TL1 and TL2 - which are also called fan lines.TL1 has been drawn through the lows touched in Feb '16 and Dec '16. This..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Jul 26, 2019): bulls brush aside feeble bear resistance

one month ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500 seems to have brushed aside feeble bear resistance. The index bounced up after receiving support from its rising 20 day EMA and touched a new high of 3028 on Fri. Jul 26.The index gained 49 points (1.6%) on a weekly closing basis, and is trading above its three rising EMAs in a bull market. However, bears are refusing to give up. Volumes were heaviest on Thu. Jul 25 - the only down day during the week. A sign that 'smart money' is getting out?Daily technical indicators are in bullish zones but showing weak upward momentum. MACD is moving sideways below its falling signal line. RSI is moving sideways above its 50% level. Slow stochastic has re-entered its overbought zone. All three indicators are showing negative divergences by failing to touch new highs with the index. Some correction or consolidation may follow.On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index closed well above its three ris..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Jul 24, 2019)

2 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs have stepped-up their selling. Their total net selling of equity during all three trading days this week was worth Rs 59.2 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on all three days. Their total net buying more than matched FII selling, and was worth Rs 65.9 Billion, as per provisional figures.Vehicle sales have continued to plummet for the past several months, as per Auto Component Manufacturers Association (ACMA) President. The current 15-20% production cut has led to a crisis-like situation, and about 1 Million employees may be laid off if the down trend continues.The IMF lowered India's GDP growth estimate by 30 bps (0.3%) to 7% in 2019 and 7.2% in 2020 due to weaker-than-expected outlook for domestic demand. Despite the downward revision, India's growth rate will be the highest in the world. Note the following remarks in last week's technical update on the daily chart pattern of Nifty: "After touching a lifetime high of 12103 on Jun 3, Nifty has formed a bearish pat..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Jul 19, 2019): hostile bears force bulls to retreat

2 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs are rushing to the exit door. They were net sellers of equity on all five trading days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 30.3 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on all five days, but couldn't match FII selling. Their total net buying was worth Rs 25.0 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's Current Account balance deficit grew to US $68 Billion in FY 2018-19 from $49 Billion in FY 2017-18 as per IMF. Overall international reserves stood at $411.9 Billion on Mar 31 '19, down by $12.5 Billion from Mar 31 '18.According to IHS Markit India Business Outlook, business sentiment fell to its lowest level since Jun '16, as companies worried about a slowing economy, water shortage and government policies. BSE Sensex index chart patternThe following comments appeared in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex: "The index appears to be forming a small, bearish 'flag' pattern that often forms midway during a sharp corr..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Jul 12, 2019): bears try their best to stop charging bulls

2 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternAn expected pullback towards the support level of 2954 on the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500 touched an intra-day low of 2963 on Tue. Jun 9. Bulls decided to 'buy the dip'. The index formed a 'reversal day' bar (lower low, higher close), which triggered a quick rally past the 3000 level to a new high of 3014 on Fri. Jul 12. The index gained 23 points (0.8%) on a weekly closing basis.Daily technical indicators are looking overbought. MACD is rising above its signal line inside its overbought zone. RSI has entered its overbought zone. Slow stochastic is climbing inside its overbought zone, but showing negative divergence by failing to touch a new high with the index. Some consolidation or correction is possible. All three EMAs are rising, and the index is trading well above them in a bull market. On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index closed well above its three rising weekly EMAs in a long-term bu..
                 

Gold and Silver charts: consolidating after upward breakouts

2 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
Gold chart patternThe following comments appeared in the previous post on the daily bar chart pattern of Gold: "...the rally has been a bit too steep. Some profit booking is likely to emerge soon."After a sharp upward breakout with good volume support above a 'Cup and Handle' pattern, gold's price twice tested the 1440 level - forming a small 'double top' reversal pattern.A pullback towards the rising 20 day EMA and some sideways consolidation followed. Gold's price is trading above its three rising EMAs in a bull market.  Daily technical indicators are correcting overbought conditions. MACD has crossed below its signal line inside its overbought zone. RSI has fallen from its overbought zone. Slow stochastic formed a 'double top' pattern before dropping from its overbought zone.The US Dollar index dropped to a low of 95.36 on Jun 25, triggering the sharp rally in Gold's price. Since then, the Dollar Index has recovered smartly past 97 - keeping a..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Jul 03, 2019)

2 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on Mon. Jul 1, but were net sellers on Tue. and Wed. (Jul 2 and 3). Their total net selling was worth Rs 4.7 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon., but were net buyers on Tue. and Wed. Their total net buying was worth Rs 3.8 Billion, as per provisional figures.Almost all auto makers in India recorded YoY decline in sales in Jun '19 owing to weak consumer sentiments. Maruti, Toyota, Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland, Honda showed double-digit declines. Hyundai, Bajaj Auto, TVS Motor showed single digit declines. M&M car sales grew 4%, but CV sales declined 15%.Nikkei India's manufacturing PMI fell to 52.1 in Jun '19 from 52.7 in May '19 due to slower order growth leading to slower output and employment growth. A number above 50 indicates expansion.GST collection in Jun '19 dipped to Rs 999.4 Billion from Rs 1 Trillion in May '19 and 1.13 Trillion in Apr '19. The government needs to collect more than Rs 1 Trillion every month to meet its fiscal targ..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Jun 28, 2019): bears trying to keep bulls in check

2 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity during the first three days, but turned net sellers on the last two days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 9.6 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on Wed. (Jun 26), but net buyers on the other four days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 16.9 Billion, as per provisional figures.For the month of Jun '19, FIIs were net sellers of equity worth Rs 6.9 Billion. It was their  second straight month of net selling after being net buyers during Jan-Apr '19. DIIs were net buyers of equity worth Rs 36.4 Billion during Jun '19. It was their second straight month of net buying after being net sellers during Feb-Apr '19.India's fiscal deficit during Apr-May '19 stood at Rs 3.66 Trillion, which touched 52% of the budget estimate for FY 2019-20. The deficit was at 55.3% of the budget estimate for FY 2018-19 during Apr-May '18.Current account deficit (CAD) during Jan-Mar '19 narrowed sharply to US $4.6 Billion from $17.7 Billion during Oct-Dec '18..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Jun 21, 2019): bulls regaining control?

3 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternThe following comment appeared in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500: "Some more consolidation is possible before the index attempts to scale a new high."The sideways consolidation continued on Mon. Jun 17. Next day, the index formed an upward 'gap' that triggered a dash towards the previous (May 1) top of 2954. On Thu. Jun 20, the index touched a new high of 2958, but closed exactly at its previous top of 2954.On Fri. Jun 21, the index touched another new high of 2964 with a volume surge, but closed lower at 2950 - forming a small 'reversal day' bar (higher high, lower close). A 'reversal day' bar at a market top can trigger a correction.Failure to close convincingly above its previous top leaves the door open for the formation of a 'double top' reversal pattern - which will get confirmed only if the index falls below 2729 (the low touched on Jun 3).Daily technical indicators are in bullish zones, but only MACD ..
                 

WTI and Brent Crude Oil charts: consolidating near support zones

3 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
WTI Crude Oil chartThe following comment appeared in the previous post on the daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil: "The imminent 'death cross' of the 50 day EMA below the 200 day EMA will technically confirm a bear market."The 'death cross' (marked by grey oval) has ended the brief foray of oil's price into bull territory during Apr-May '19. The support zone between 50-52 has provided temporary solace to bulls.Daily technical indicators are looking bearish and oversold. MACD is moving sideways below its signal line in oversold zone. RSI has emerged weakly from its oversold zone. Slow stochastic has dropped back inside its oversold zone. All three EMAs are falling, and oil's price is trading below them in a bear market. Bears are likely to continue with their 'sell on rise' strategy.On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price has closed well below its three weekly EMAs in long-term bear territory. Weekly technical indicators are in b..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Jun 12, 2019)

3 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on Mon. and Tue. (Jun 10 and 11), but were net sellers today. Their total net selling was worth Rs 7.4 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on Tue., but were net buyers on Mon. and today. Their total net buying was worth Rs 2.9 Billion, as per provisional figures.Reigniting the debate on the accuracy of India's GDP growth numbers, the former Chief Economic Advisor, Arvind Subramanian mentioned in a research paper that analyses data on 17 different economic indicators that India's real GDP growth was only 3.5-5.5% during FY 2012-2017.The Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council has refuted the claims made by the former CEA in his research paper. However, the jobless economic growth on the ground may be confirming - rather than refuting - Mr Subramanian's findings.The daily bar chart pattern of Nifty had touched a new high of 12103 on Jun 3. The index corrected sharply and tested support from its rising 20 day EMA on Jun 7. It has been consolidating s..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Jun 07, 2019): pause after touching new highs

3 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
During a holiday-shortened trading week, FIIs were net buyers of equity on Mon. Jun 3, but net sellers on Tue., Thu. and Fri. (Jun 4, 6, and 7). Their total net buying exceeded Rs 7.2 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on Fri. Jun 7, but net sellers on the other three days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 12.9 Billion, as per provisional figures.Nikkei India's Manufacturing PMI increased to 52.7 in May '19 from 8-months low figure of 51.8 in Apr '19 - remaining above 50 (indicating growth) for the 22nd month in a row. However, Nikkei India's Services PMI slipped to 50.2 in May '19 from 51 in Apr '19 - its slowest growth in a year. The Composite PMI (Manufacturing + Services) was 51.7 in May '19 - the same as in Apr '19.Passenger vehicle sales in India declined 21.6% YoY in May '19 due to high finance costs and economic uncertainty. Monthly sales for Maruti, Tata Motors, Honda, Toyota declined between 7.5% to 38%. M&M sales were marginall..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (May 31, 2019): consolidating near lifetime highs

3 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
During May 2019, FIIs were net sellers of equity till Fri. May 17, but net buyers from Mon. May 20 onwards. Their total net selling exceeded Rs 21.3 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity till Fri. May 17, but net sellers from Mon. May 20 onwards. Their total net buying was worth Rs 53.2 Billion, as per provisional figures.During FY2018-19, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in India declined for the first time in 6 years - from a record US $44.85 Billion in FY2017-18 to $44.37 Billion (1.1% lower). In FY2012-13, FDI had contracted 36% to US $22.42 Billion from $35.12 Billion in FY2011-12.As per the Central Statistics Office (CSO), India's GDP growth slipped to a 5 yr low of 5.8% during Jan-Mar '19 (Q4). During FY2018-19, GDP growth fell to 6.8% from 7.2% in FY2017-18.BSE Sensex index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Sensex consolidated sideways with a slight upward bias during the first four trading days of the week, before rising to test its May 23 top on..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (May 24, 2019): bears trying to exert control

3 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternThe following comment was made in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500: "The index remains in a down trend (marked by purple trend line) that started after the index touched a lifetime high of 2954 on May 1."The index traded below the (purple) down trend line through the week. It made an attempt to move above its 50 day EMA on Tue. and Wed. (May 21 and 22), but dropped down to close below it - losing 1.2% on a weekly closing basis.On Thu. May 23, the index tested support from the 2800 level for the second time since Mon. May 13, and bounced up a bit - keeping bullish hopes alive. As long as the index trades above its 200 day EMA, bulls need not worry too much.Daily technical indicators are in bearish zones, and showing downward momentum. MACD is falling below its signal line. RSI has dropped down again after facing resistance from its 50% level. Slow stochastic had bounced up from the edge of its oversold zone, but..
                 

WTI and Brent Crude Oil charts: consolidating near support-resistance zones

4 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
WTI Crude Oil chartThe daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil consolidated sideways with a slight upward bias during the past two weeks. Oil's price closed above its three EMAs in bull territory, but failed to close above the 'support-resistance zone' (between 62 and 64).Note that trading volumes during recent down days have exceeded volumes on up days. That is a sign that bears are active and following a 'sell on rise' strategy.Daily technical indicators are looking bullish. MACD is about to cross above its falling signal line in neutral zone. RSI has moved above its 50% level. Slow stochastic is rising above its 50% level. Oil's price may rise further due to escalating US-Iran tensions and concerns about US-China trade war.On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price bounced up after receiving strong support from its converging weekly EMAs, and closed in long-term bull territory. Weekly technical indicators are in bullish zones, ..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (May 15, 2019)

4 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on all three trading days this week. Their total net selling was worth Rs 42.1 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on all three trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 39.7 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's CPI based retail inflation inched up to 2.92% in Apr '19 against 2.86% in Mar '19, but remained well within RBI's target level of 4%.However, WPI based wholesale inflation slipped to 3.07% in Apr '19 against 3.18% in Mar '19 due to lower cost of fuel and manufactured items, even as food prices rose higher.The following comments appeared in last week's technical update on the daily bar chart pattern of Nifty: "On the downside, there is an unfilled upward 'gap' of 46 points (formed on Mar 12). Expect Nifty to find some support at the 'gap' zone." On Mon. May 13, the index fell more than 130 points - completely filling the 'gap' by closing below it. Short covering after 9 days of correction led to a pullba..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (May 10, 2019): downward breakouts from 'diamond' reversal patterns

4 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on all five trading days. Their total net selling exceeded Rs 41.9 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on all five trading days, but couldn't match the pace of FII selling. Their total net buying was worth Rs 28.8 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's IIP contracted to -0.1% in Mar '19 from 0.1% growth in Feb '19. It was the lowest IIP number in 21 months. IIP in Mar '18 was 5.3%. On annual basis, IIP slowed to a 3 year low of 3.6% in FY 2018-19 against 4.4% in FY 2017-18 and 4.6% in FY 2016-17.According to CRISIL, operating margins of domestic cotton yarn spinners may shrink by 1-1.5% in FY 2019-20 due to lower cotton output, rising cotton prices and moderating demand.  BSE Sensex index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Sensex shows a sharp downward breakout from a 'diamond' reversal pattern, due to heavy selling by FIIs. Though the index has dropped below its 20 day and 50 day EMAs, it is trading above its 200 day EMA in a..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (May 03, 2019): bulls brush aside bear resistance

4 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternThe following comments appeared in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500: "Some hesitation and profit booking can be expected near a previous top. Whether that would lead to a breach of the twin support from the rising 20 day EMA and the lower edge of the 'wedge' remains to be seen."On Wed. May 1, the index touched a new lifetime high of 2954 but formed a 'reversal day' bar (higher high, lower close) and closed at the lower edge of the 'wedge' - below its previous top of 2941.Bears took advantage. Their selling triggered a breakout and a close below the 'wedge' on Thu. May 2. Note that the index closed above its 20 day EMA despite an intra-day fall below it; i.e. technically, support from the 20 day EMA held firm.Bulls engineered a sharp pullback on Fri. May 3, ensuring that the index closed inside the 'rising wedge' with a 6 points weekly gain. However, Friday's lower volumes may enthuse bears to try another downward breakou..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Apr 26, 2019): bulls on top, but bears still offering resistance

4 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternThe following remark was made in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500: "For the past seven weeks, the index is trading within a 'rising wedge' pattern, from which a downward breakout is likely."There was no breakout in the week gone by, as the index kept rising along the upper edge of the 'wedge'. The rally stopped just a point short of the lifetime high of 2941 touched on Sep 21 '18.Some hesitation and profit booking can be expected near a previous top. Whether that would lead to a breach of the twin support from the rising 20 day EMA and the lower edge of the 'wedge' remains to be seen.Can the index form a 'double top' reversal pattern? Seems unlikely, but the possibility can't be ruled out.Daily technical indicators are looking bullish and overbought, but not showing much upward momentum. MACD is moving sideways after merging with its signal line. RSI has re-entered its overbought zone after a brief slip below i..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Apr 18, 2019): bulls in charge, but bears refusing to give up

5 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternThe following comments were made in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500: "A new high is now within handshaking distance. But bears are still not ready to throw in the towel."The index consolidated sideways within a 26 points range - touching an intra-day high of 2918 on Wed. Apr 17, but forming a 'reversal day' bar. The index closed just 2 points lower on a weekly basis.For the past seven weeks, the index is trading within a 'rising wedge' pattern, from which a downward breakout is likely. Daily technical indicators are in bullish zones but showing slight downward momentum. MACD has slipped below its signal line. RSI again faced resistance from the edge of its overbought zone. Slow stochastic is correcting inside its overbought zone. All three EMAs are rising and the index is trading above them in a bull market. However, negative divergences visible on all three indicators - which failed to rise to ..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Apr 12, 2019): bulls trying to wrest control

5 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500 consolidated sideways within a 27 points range during the first four trading days, but formed an upward 'gap' to close above the 2900 level on Fri. Apr 12.It was the first close above 2900 in more than 6 months. A new high is now within handshaking distance. But bears are still not ready to throw in the towel.Trading pattern during the past 6 weeks has formed a bearish 'rising wedge' from which a downward breakout is likely. A correction will improve the technical 'health' of the chart - enabling the index to rise to a new high.Daily technical indicators are looking bullish and overbought. MACD is moving sideways above its signal line. RSI is making another attempt to enter its overbought zone. Slow stochastic is well inside its overbought zone. All three EMAs are rising and the index is trading well above them in a bull market. However, negative divergences visible on all three indicator..
                 

Gold and Silver charts: consolidating after touching lower tops

5 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
Gold chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Gold has formed a large 'cup and handle' continuation pattern. The pattern is more clearly visible on the 50 day EMA. An upward breakout can be expected after the 'handle' formation is complete.Note that a fall below 1260 - which is at the mid-point of the 'cup' - will negate the 'cup and handle' pattern. Gold's price is trading above its rising 200 day EMA in a bull market.Daily technical indicators are looking neutral to bearish. MACD is moving sideways below its signal line in bearish zone. RSI is facing resistance from its 50% level. Slow stochastic has emerged from its oversold zone.After a sharp rise above 97.70 on Mar 7, followed by a sharp fall to 95.20 on Mar 20, the US Dollar index recovered to 97.10 on Apr 2. It has been consolidating between 97 and 96.50 since then. Gold's price has been consolidating as well.On longer term weekly chart (not shown), gold’s price closed above its three weekly EMAs in long-term b..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Apr 03, 2019)

5 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on the first two trading days this week, but booked profits today. Their total net buying was worth Rs 4 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on all three days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 15.5 Billion, as per provisional figures.Nikkei India's Manufacturing PMI eased to a 6-months low of 52.6 in Mar '19 from 54.3 in Feb '19, due to slower increase in new orders, production and employment. (A figure above 50 indicates growth.)Auto sales in Mar '19 were mixed. However, for FY 2018-19 sales growth was decent. In passenger vehicles, M&M grew 2%; Maruti, Toyota, Honda grew between 2 & 8%; Tata Motors grew 12% (its highest in 6 years). In CVs, Eicher, Ashok Leyland, M&M, Tata Motors grew between 10 & 17%.Bullish ViewNote the following comments from last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of Nifty: "It should be just a matter of time before the index rises to touch a new high. However,..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Mar 29, 2019): poised to touch new highs?

5 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on the first four trading days, but were net sellers on Fri. Mar 29. Their total net buying was worth Rs 61.4 Billion during the week. DIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon., Tue. and Thu. (Mar 25, 26 and 28) but net buyers on the other two days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 4.3 Billion, as per provisional figures.For the month of Mar '19, FIIs were net buyers of equity worth a massive Rs 323.7 Billion - their highest net buying in a month since Mar '17; DIIs were net sellers of equity worth Rs 139.3 Billion - their highest net selling in a month since Mar '16.India's Current Account Deficit (CAD), at US $16.9 Billion during Q3 (Oct-Dec '18), widened to 2.5% of GDP from 2.1% a year ago due to a higher trade deficit. India's fiscal deficit (gap between expenditure and revenue) from Apr '18 to Feb '19 was Rs 8.51 Trillion - 134.2% of the budgeted amount of Rs 6.34 Trillion for FY 2018-19.BSE Sensex index char..
                 

Gold and Silver charts: weak recovery after sharp falls

6 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
Gold chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Gold bounced up from the lower Bollinger Band and crossed above its 50 day EMA, but faced strong resistance from the middle Bollinger Band (20 day SMA, marked by green dotted line).Gold's price is consolidating near the 1300 level, and managed to close well above its 200 day EMA in bull territory. Daily technical indicators are looking neutral to bearish. MACD is moving sideways below its signal line in bearish zone. RSI is facing resistance from its 50% level. Slow stochastic remains in bearish zone after recovering from oversold condition.After a sharp rise above 97.50 on Mar 7, the US Dollar index has dropped below 96.50. That helped gold's price to rally from its Mar 7 low of 1281.On longer term weekly chart (not shown), gold’s price closed above its three weekly EMAs in long-term bull territory for the 12th week in a row. Weekly technical indicators are showing downward to sideways momentum in bull..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Mar 13, 2019)

6 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were on a buying spree on all three trading days this week. Their total net buying in equity was worth a massive Rs 90.1 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on all three trading days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 44.5 Billion, as per provisional figures.The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) slowed to 1.7% in Jan '19 from 2.6% in Dec '18 due to deceleration in manufacturing, capital goods, consumer, non-durables and electricity sectors.  Retail (CPI) inflation rose to 2.57% in Feb '19 from 1.97% in Jan '19 due to higher food prices (except vegetables). Lower IIP and higher CPI may force RBI to cut interest rates in its Apr '19 policy meeting.The daily bar chart pattern of Nifty has shot up like a rocket - fuelled by renewed FII buying. Announcement of dates of general elections, and likely return of NDA for a second term (as per recent polls) has given a big boost to bullish sentiment.Note that the index has closed a..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Mar 08, 2019): testing important resistance levels

6 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on all four trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 41.2 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on Tue. (Mar 5), but net sellers on the last three trading days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 16.9 Billion, as per provisional figures.Government's indirect tax revenues will be under pressure during FY 2018-19 as there could be a further fall in GST revenue. Direct tax numbers are likely to be around the revised target. The fiscal deficit figure of 3.4% will be met as there will be some savings on expenditure.Inflows into equity mutual funds (including ELSS) declined 17% in Feb '19 to Rs 51.2 Billion from Rs 61.6 Billion in Jan '19. The decline is almost 60% from Oct '18 inflow of Rs 126.2 Billion. However, SIP inflows have remained steady.BSE Sensex index chart patternThe following comments appeared in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex: "Sensex closed above its three EMAs in bull territo..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Mar 01, 2019): pullback rallies fail to overcome overhead resistances

6 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternThe following comments were made in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500: "Some more consolidation can be expected before the index makes an attempt to cross above the resistance zone."The index entered the resistance zone (between 2800 and 2825) On Mon. Feb 25 and touched an intra-day high of 2813, but dropped to close below 2800. Three days of consolidation with a downward bias followed, with the index touching an intra-day low of 2775 on Wed. Feb 27.An upward bounce on Fri. Mar 1 - possibly because POTUS postponed increasing tariffs on Chinese goods - took the index to a close inside the resistance zone after 4 months, with a weekly gain of 0.4%.Bears have managed to prevent the 'golden cross' of the 50 day EMA above the 200 day EMA for one more week by strongly defending the resistance zone. Daily technical indicators are looking overbought. MACD has slipped below its signal line (which appears to be ..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Feb 27, 2019)

6 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were were net buyers of equity on all three trading days this week. Their total net buying was worth Rs 42.3 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon. and Tue. (Feb 25 and 26), but net buyers today. Their total net selling was worth Rs 24 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's fiscal deficit (i.e. gap between the government's expenditure and revenue) touched Rs 7.7 Trillion during the Apr '18 - Jan '19 period, exceeding the full year revised target of Rs 6.34 Trillion by more than 21% due to lower revenue collections.A Reuter's survey of economists forecast that India's GDP growth slipped to 6.9% (annually) during the Oct-Dec '18 quarter. If the forecast proves accurate, it will be the slowest economic growth in five quarters.Despite strong buying by FIIs, the daily bar chart pattern of Nifty has failed to make much upward progress. The index faced two days of resistance from its 50 day EMA last week, but bounced up above all three EM..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Feb 20, 2019)

7 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon. and Tue. (Feb 18 and 19), but net buyers today. Their total net selling was worth Rs 13.4 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on all three trading days this week. Their total net buying was worth Rs 36.1 Billion, as per provisional figures.Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in India contracted by 7% to US $33.49 Billion during the Apr-Dec '18 period, compared to US $35.94 Billion during Apr-Dec '17. The decline may put pressure on balance of payments and value of Rupee.The government has approved a Rs 482 Billion recapitalisation for 12 Public Sector Banks to strengthen their balance sheets and help them to better negotiate RBI's Prompt Corrective Action (PCA) framework.The following remark was made in last week's technical update on the daily bar chart pattern of Nifty: "Looks like Nifty may be headed below its 200 day EMA towards the lower Bollinger Band."Six straight days of lower closes - due mainly to FII ..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Feb 15, 2019): bears attack after false breakouts above Fibonacci resistance zones

7 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs turned bears, and were net sellers of equity on all five trading days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 24.8 Billion. DIIs were also net sellers of equity on Mon. and Tue. (Feb 11 and 12) but turned net buyers on Wed., Thu. and Fri. Their total net buying was worth Rs 24.4 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's WPI-based inflation in Jan '19 touched a 10 months low of 2.76% - down from 3.8% in Dec '18 and 3.02% in Jan '18. Lower inflation in fuel and manufactured products led to the fall.Trade deficit in Jan '19 widened to US $14.73 Billion from $13.08 Billion in Dec '18, but was lower than $15.7 Billion in Jan '18. Exports rose by 3.74% while imports grew a meagre 0.01%.BSE Sensex index chart patternFollowing a failed upward breakout above the Fibonacci resistance zone (between 36140 and 36810), the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex closed lower for six trading days in a row as FIIs turned net sellers of equity. The index..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Feb 08, 2019): pullback rallies face strong resistances

7 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500 crossed above the Fibonacci resistance zone between 2640 and 2710 (marked by grey rectangle - refer last week's post) on Mon. Feb 4, and continued its climb along the upper Bollinger Band the next day.Strong resistance from the 200 day SMA halted further progress of the rally. The index dropped back inside the resistance zone - closing flat for the week.As long as the index remains above its 20 day SMA (middle band - marked by green dotted line), bulls will endeavour to charge past the 200 day SMA.Daily technical indicators are correcting overbought conditions, but remain in bullsih zones. MACD and RSI are moving down after facing resistances from the edges of their respective overbought zones. Slow stochastic is about to drop from its overbought zone.  Some more correction or consolidation around current level is likely. On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index closed abov..
                 

Gold and Silver charts: upward breakouts from 'cup and handle' patterns face resistances

7 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
Gold chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Gold has broken out upwards from a large 'cup and handle' consolidation pattern. What had looked like a downward breakout from a 'symmetrical triangle' pattern (refer previous post) turned out to be the formation of the 'handle' on a longer time frame.Gold's price dropped below its 20 day EMA, but bounced up after receiving support at the 1275 level - completing the 'handle' formation. A sharp rally to 1330 was followed by a bit of profit booking.All three EMAs are rising, and gold's price is trading above them in a bull market. The 'golden cross' of the 50 day EMA above the 200 day EMA last month had technically confirmed a return to bull territory.Daily technical indicators are in the process of correcting overbought conditions. MACD is rising above its signal line inside overbought zone. RSI has slipped down from its overbought zone. Slow stochastic is ready to do likewise.MACD and Slow stochastic are showing negative diverg..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Jan 30, 2019)

7 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on Mon. and Wed. (Jan 28 and 30) but net sellers on Tue. Their total net selling was worth only Rs 6.7 Million. DIIs were net buyers of equity on all three trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 6.7 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's economic activity showed signs of slowing down in Dec '18, reflecting a pullback in new orders and belying hopes of a quick turnaround suggested by Nov '18 data.According to ICRA, as many as 898 corporate insolvency cases are awaiting resolution as of Dec '18, up from 768 cases as on Sep '18. Only 79 cases have yielded a resolution, while 302 cases have entered liquidation as of Dec '18.A false upward breakout from a 'diamond' pattern (refer last week's technical update) on the daily bar chart pattern of Nifty has effectively ended the counter-trend rally from its Oct '18 low. The index has resumed the next leg of its down move from its Aug '18 top. That sounds rather omi..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Jan 25, 2019): false upward breakouts from 'diamond' patterns

7 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on Fri. (Jan 25) but net sellers on the first four trading days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 5.6 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on Tue. and Fri., but net buyers during Mon., Wed. and Thu. (Jan 21, 23 and 24). Their total net buying was worth Rs 12.6 Billion, as per provisional figures.India Inc's profit-to-GDP ratio (for Nifty 500 index companies) dropped to a 15 years low of 2.8% in FY '18 from 5.5% in FY '08, as per a study by Motilal Oswal. For all companies (including unlisted ones), profit-to-GDP ratio declined from 7.8% to 3% in the same period.India's exports to China increased from US $6.37 Billion during Jun-Nov '17 to US $8.46 Billion during Jun-Nov '18 - benefitting from the ongoing tariff war between USA and China. BSE Sensex index chart patternThe following comment was made in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex: "By failing to press home their adv..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Jan 18, 2019): pullback rallies showing renewed vigour

8 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternAfter a day's correction on Mon. Jan 14, the daily bar chart pattern of SPX 500 brushed past bear resistance at 2600, and soared above its 50 day EMA to close at 2670 with a 2.9% weekly gain.Looming overhead is a resistance zone (marked by light gray oval), where the sliding 200 day EMA, the upper Bollinger Band and the (purple) down trend line have converged. Bears can be expected to put up a stronger resistance when trading starts on Tue. Jan 22 (after the long weekend). Daily technical indicators are looking bullish. MACD is rising above its signal line in bullish zone. RSI is moving up above its 50% level. Slow stochastic is moving sideways inside its overbought zone, and can trigger a correction.On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index closed well above its 200 week EMA and just above 20 week EMA in long-term bull territory, but remains below its falling 50 week EMA. Weekly technical indicators a..
                 

WTI and Brent Crude Oil charts: pullback rallies stall at 50 day EMAs

8 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
WTI Crude Oil chartThe following remark was made in the previous post on the daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil: "Some price consolidation can be expected, as bulls may try to defend the long-term support/resistance level of 42."Bulls did put up a strong defence at the long-term 'support/resistance' level of 42 - aided by  positive divergences visible on MACD and RSI (which touched higher lows). Oil's price had touched an intra-day low of 42.36 on Dec 24 and closed at 42.53. On the next trading day (Dec 26), oil's price recovered from an intra-day low of 42.52 to close at 46.22.After a brief sideways consolidation, oil's price easily climbed above its 20 day EMA and rose to test resistance from its 50 day EMA. Bears used weakness in the Chinese economy as a trigger to start selling.Daily technical indicators are turning bearish. MACD is rising above its signal line in bearish zone, but its upward momentum is weakening. RSI is seeking support from its..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Jan 09, 2019)

8 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on Tue. (Jan 8), but net buyers on Mon. & Wed. (Jan 7 & 9). Their total net buying was worth Rs 4.6 Billion. DIIs were net sellers on Mon. but net buyers on Tue. & Wed. Their total net buying was worth Rs 9.9 Billion, as per provisional figures.According to a World Bank report, global economic growth is projected to soften from a downwardly-revised 3% in 2018 to 2.9% in 2019 amid rising downside risks.The bull party may be coming to an end. Indian stocks are headed for another tough year as a shrinking global cash pool dims prospects of an improving economy and expected recovery in company earnings - according to BofAML. After closing below its three EMAs in bear territory on Thu. Jan 3, the daily bar chart pattern of Nifty formed a 'reversal day' bar (lower low, higher close) on Fri. Jan 4, which triggered four straight days of higher closes.The index has moved above its 20 day SMA (middle Bollinger Band - ..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Jan 04, 2019): another week of consolidation within rising wedge patterns

8 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on all 5 trading days during the week. Their total net selling was worth Rs 21.3 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on Wed. (Jan 2), but net buyers on the other four days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 5.1 Billion, as per provisional figures.The Nikkei India Services PMI slipped to 53.2 in Dec '18 from 53.7 in Nov '18 due to slower rise in new orders. (A number more than 50 indicates expansion.) The Composite PMI (Manufacturing + Services) moved down to 53.6 in Dec '18 from 54.5 in Nov '18. During Apr-Nov '18, the government's total net indirect tax collection (inclusive of CGST, IGST, and GST-Compensation Cess) has been Rs 6.13 Trillion, which is about 55% of the budget estimate for FY 2018-19 of Rs 11.16 Trillion.BSE Sensex index chart patternFor the past 12 weeks, the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex has been trading within a bearish 'rising wedge' pattern, from wh..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Dec 28, 2018): trading within bearish rising wedge patterns

8 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
In a holiday-shortened trading week, FIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon. & Fri. (Dec 24 & 28), but net buyers on Wed. & Thu. (Dec 26 & 27). Their total net buying was worth Rs 11.1 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on Mon. & Fri., but net sellers on Wed. & Thu. Their total net buying was worth Rs 5.85 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's fiscal deficit during Apr-Nov '18 touched Rs 7.16 Trillion, which is 114.8% of full year target. During Apr-Nov '17, fiscal deficit was 112% of full year target. No wonder RBI is being pressurised to part with a portion of its reserves to help trim the deficit.Reports that the government would inject Rs 286 Billion through recapitalisation bonds for 7 PSU banks to help them come out of RBI's PCA framework brought some bullish cheer to PSU bank stocks.BSE Sensex index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Sensex closed above its three EMA..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Dec 21, 2018): bears have total control

9 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500 shows how technical analysis signals can sometimes be self-fulfilling. The index made a strong 62% gain (~1131 points) during its 33 months long rally from the Feb 11 '16 low of 1810.10 to the Sep 21 '18 top of 2940.91.Almost half of those gains (532.36 points; 47%) got wiped out in just 3 months when the index touched an intra-day low of 2408.55 on Dec 21 '18. Note how the bottom seems to have fallen out of the index after the bearish 'death cross' (of the 50 day EMA below the 200 day EMA) on Dec 10th.Daily technical indicators are looking oversold. MACD is falling deep inside its oversold zone. RSI is also falling inside its oversold zone. Slow stochastic has dropped well inside its oversold zone. Bears have taken complete control of the chart.The 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the 33 months long rally (from Feb '16 low to Sep '18 top) is at 2375. Expect bulls to put up a fight to defend that leve..
                 

Gold and Silver charts: bulls showing courage and determination

9 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
Gold chart patternThe following remarks were made in the previous post on the daily bar chart pattern of Gold: "Some near-term upside is likely. Gold's price needs to move convincingly above its 200 day EMA and the 1280 level for bulls to regain control of the chart."Bulls have showed real courage and determination. Gold's price first crossed above the 'support/resistance zone' between 1230 & 1240 with decent volume support, and then moved above its 200 day EMA.Volumes petered off and gold's price slipped below its 200 day EMA, but bounced up after receiving support from its rising 20 day EMA. Gold's price has closed above its three EMAs in bull territory after 8 months, but bears have not yet relinquished control.Daily technical indicators are in bullish zones, but not showing any upward momentum. MACD is moving sideways above its rising signal line. RSI is above its 50% level. Slow stochastic has fallen down from its overbought zone.Expect gold's price to consolidate around curre..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Dec 12, 2018)

9 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on Mon. (Dec 10) but net sellers on Tue. & Wed. (Dec 11 & 12). Their total net selling was worth Rs 36.0 Billion. DIIs were net sellers on Mon. but net buyers on Tue. & Wed. Their total net buying was worth Rs 32.3 Billion, as per provisional figures.CPI inflation for Nov '18 has fallen to a 16 month low of 2.33% from 3.31% in Oct '18 - thanks to lower food and fuel prices.IIP for Oct '18 surged to an 11 months high of 8.1% from 4.5% in Sep '18 - boosted by infrastructure projects. During Apr-Oct '18, IIP grew 5.6% compared to 2.5% during Apr-Oct '17.The following remarks were made in last week's technical update on the daily bar chart pattern of Nifty: "Note that all three EMAs have converged together...A sharp move is likely to follow...Odds favour a down move."The expected down move started on Thu. Dec 6. The index opened trading with a 30 points downward 'gap' and dropped sharply below its three EMAs to close ..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Dec 07, 2018): bears wrest the initiative from bulls

9 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on Mon. & Thu. (Dec 3 & 6), but net sellers on the other three days of the week. Their total net selling was worth Rs 8.7 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on Fri. (Dec 7), but net sellers on the other four days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 22.7 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's Current Account Deficit (CAD) widened to US $19.1 Billion (2.9% of GDP) during Q2 (Sep '18) compared to US $6.9 Billion (1.1% of GDP) during Q2 (Sep '17) - mainly due to a large trade deficit. CAD was US $15.9 Billion (2.4% of GDP) during Q1 (Jun '18).Members of OPEC pledged to reduce their production by 800,000 barrels per day for 6 months beginning Jan '19. Russia and other non-OPEC producers have promised to slash production by 400,000 barrels per day. OPEC members Iran, Venezuela and Libya have been granted exemption from the production cuts. BSE Sensex index chart patternThe foll..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Nov 30, 2018): bulls trying to regain control

9 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternThe following remark was made in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500: "...Friday's curtailed trading formed a 'gravestone doji' candlestick pattern, which can lead to a pullback towards the plummeting 20 day EMA."The expected pullback turned into a sharp rally. The index closed above its three EMAs in bull territory on Fri. Nov 30. Bulls managed to prevent the 'death cross' (of the 50 day EMA below the 200 day EMA) for the time being.The next hurdle for bulls is the previous (Nov 7) index top of 2815. Bears can be expected to put up some resistance there - as they had done in Oct '18. Daily technical indicators are turning bullish. MACD is rising above its signal line in bearish zone. RSI has just crossed above its 50% level. Slow stochastic is rising towards its overbought zone. Some more near-term upside is likely. On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index closed just below its sliding 20..
                 

WTI and Brent Crude Oil charts: plunge headlong into bear markets

9 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
WTI Crude Oil chartDespite rumours of a production cut by Saudi Arabia, the daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil continued its steep correction from its Oct '18 top - touching a 52 week low of 50.10 on Nov 26, almost a 35% correction.The 'death cross' of the 50 day EMA below the 200 day EMA (marked by grey oval) has technically confirmed a bear market. Bears have been using a 'sell on rise' strategy to devastating effect.A production cut is expected when OPEC meets in Vienna next week amid worries over a US-China trade war, a supply glut and demand slowdown.Daily technical indicators are looking quite oversold. MACD is falling below its signal line deep inside its oversold zone. RSI has remained inside its oversold zone since the beginning of Nov '18. Slow stochastic has remained inside its oversold zone for almost six weeks. All technical bounces are facing selling pressure.On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price closed well below its three weekly EMAs in long-term be..
                 

Gold and Silver charts: bears remain on top

10 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
Gold chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Gold faced strong resistance from the 'Support/Resistance zone' between 1230 & 1240, and dropped sharply below its 20 day and 50 day EMAs.After touching an intra-day low of 1196 on Tue. Nov 13, gold's price has rallied above its 20 day and 50 day EMAs. Note the sliding volumes, hinting that the rally may soon run out of steam.Incidentally, gold's price is almost a mirror-image of the US Dollar index, which spiked to 97.50 on Nov 12 but dropped to 96 on Nov 19 - triggering the rally in gold's price. Daily technical indicators are looking neutral to bullish. MACD is trying to cross above its '0' line after falling briefly below it. RSI has just moved above its 50% level after falling below it. Slow stochastic has bounced up smartly from its oversold zone and has moved above its 50% level. Gold's price is trading below its sliding 200 day EMA in a bear market. Expect it to face resistance from the 'Support/Resistance zone' onc..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Nov 14, 2018)

10 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
In a reversal of roles, FIIs were net buyers of equity on Mon. & Wed. (Nov 12 & 14), but net sellers of equity on Tue. Nov 13. Their total net buying was worth Rs 6.1 Billion. DIIs were net sellers on Mon. & Wed., but net buyers on Tue. Their total net selling was worth Rs 10.1 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's CPI inflation eased to a 13 months low of 3.31% in Oct '18 on the back of lower food prices, from a downward-revised 3.7% in Sep '18. However, WPI inflation rose to a 4 months high of 5.28% in Oct '18 due to higher petrol and diesel prices, from 5.13% in Sep '18.India's IIP grew marginally at 4.5% in Sep '18 against 4.3% in Aug '18, indicating that there has not been any significant acceleration in factory output despite waning of the impact of demonetisation and GST.During the past 8 trading sessions, the daily bar chart pattern of Nifty has been consolidating sideways within a 210 points range - as FIIs turned net b..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Nov 09, 2018): fail to overcome resistances from long-term moving averages

10 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
Trading activity was muted in a holiday-curtailed trading week. FIIs were net sellers of equity on Tue. Nov 6, but net buyers on the other three days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 1.58 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on Tue. & Wed., but net sellers on Mon. & Fri. Nov 9. Their total net selling was worth Rs 8.1 Billion, as per provisional figures.Nikkei India's Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.1 in Oct '18 from 52.2 in Sep '18. Nikkei India's Services PMI rose to 52.2 in Oct '18 from 50.9 in Sep '18. The Composite (Manufacturing + Services) PMI rose to 53 in Oct '18 from 51.6 in Sep '18. (A number >50 indicates expansion.)The combined profits of about 940 listed companies are up just about 3% YoY, against 12.5% YoY in the June '18 quarter. Higher raw material and borrowing costs are two factors responsible for slower overall earnings growth of India Inc. during the Sep '18 quarter - despite a low base. BSE Sensex index chart ..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Nov 02, 2018): technical bounces from Fibonacci support zones face strong resistances

10 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
For the month of Oct 2018, FII were net sellers of equity worth a huge Rs 292 Billion. Their previous highest net selling in a month was back in Jan 2008 (Rs 294.5 Billion), which had triggered a 15 months long bear market. As per provisional figures, DIIs were net buyers of equity worth Rs 260.3 Billion, perhaps their highest net buying ever in a single month.Auto sales during Oct '18 were quite good. Bajaj Auto, TVS Motor, HeroMoto, Escorts, M&M, Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland, Ford showed double-digit YoY sales growth. However, sales of Maruti, Toyota and Royal Enfield were flat. There are signs of moderation in heavy-duty truck sales.GST collections crossed the Rs 1 Trillion mark in Sep '18, against Rs 944 Billion in Aug '18. The Finance Minister attributed the rise in collection to reduction in tax rates, higher compliance and negligible interference of tax officials.BSE Sensex index chart patternThe following comments appeared in last week's post on the daily bar c..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Oct 26, 2018): bears are taking control

10 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternThe following remark was made in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500: "Another likely breach of the 200 day EMA can lead to a fall towards the lower edge of the support zone."The fall below the 200 day EMA was steeper than expected. On Fri. Oct 26, the index touched an intra-day low of 2628 and closed 30 points below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 2689. The strong volumes indicate that the index may fall lower.The index is trading well below its three falling EMAs in bear territory. It seems that the entire 'Trump rally' - from the small 'double bottom' reversal pattern formed during Jan-Feb '16 to the 'double top' reversal pattern formed during Sep-Oct '18 - is facing correction, with a possible drop to the zone between 2400 and 2500.Daily technical indicators are looking bearish and oversold. MACD is falling deeper inside its oversold zone. RSI is about to re-enter its oversold zone. Slow stochastic&nb..
                 

Gold and Silver charts: bulls try to fight back, but bears still rule

11 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
Gold chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Gold consolidated sideways within a 'rectangle' pattern for almost 8 weeks before breaking out upwards with a strong volume surge on Oct 11. After a pullback to the top of the 'rectangle' the following day, gold's price rose to test resistance from the zone between 1240 and 1250. It has been consolidating sideways above its 20 day and 50 day EMAs, but remains below its falling 200 day EMA in a bear market.A dip in the US Dollar index to 94.50 possibly triggered the upward breakout. The Dollar index has since moved above 95.50, putting a lid on gold's price.Daily technical indicators are in bullish zones but not showing upward momentum. MACD is above its signal line but its up move has stalled. RSI is sliding down. Slow stochastic is about to drop from its overbought zone. Expect some more consolidation in the zone between 1220 and 1240.On longer term weekly chart (not shown), gold’s price crossed above its 20 week EMA intra-wee..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Oct 17, 2018)

11 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on Tue. Oct 16, but net buyers on the other two trading days this week. Their total net selling was worth Rs 9.6 Billion. DIIs were net buyers on Mon. & Tue. but net sellers on Wed. Oct 17. Their total net buying was worth Rs 10.1 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's WPI inflation rose to 5.13% in Sep '18 from 4.53% in Aug '18 and an upwardly revised 5.27% in Jul '18. Higher fuel price was the main culprit.Consumer goods companies are uncertain about the outlook for rural demand as below-normal monsoon rainfall in some states is set to hit income in rural areas.The daily bar chart pattern of Nifty has reverted back to the control of bears. The counter-trend rally from the lower Bollinger Band came to a screeching halt today.The index touched an intra-day high of 10710 but faced strong resistances from its 200 day EMA, its 20 day SMA (green dotted line) and the downward 'gap' formed on Oct 4. (The bearish and measuring signi..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Oct 12, 2018): find some support at Fibonacci retracement levels

11 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers on all five days of trading last week. Their total net selling was worth a Rs 83.3 Billion. DIIs were net buyers on all five trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 85.7 Billion, as per provisional figures.In Sep '18, India's CPI inflation inched up to 3.77% compared with a 3.69% increase in Aug '18 due to higher food and fuel prices. The figure was less than RBI's medium-term inflation target of 4%.The IIP number slipped to a 3 months low of 4.3% in Aug '18 from (downward revised) 6.5% in Jul '18 due to a sharp decline in mining sector output and poor offtake of capital goods. However, during Apr-Aug '18, IIP growth was 5.2% - up from 2.3% during Apr-Aug '17.BSE Sensex index chart patternNote the following comments from last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex: "...the index appears to be retracing the 13236 points rally from its Dec 26 '16 low (25754) to its Aug 29 '18 top (38990). The 38.2% and 50% Fibona..
                 

Gold and Silver charts: bears selling on every rise

11 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
Gold chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Gold has been consolidating sideways with a slight downward bias for the past seven weeks. The sliding 50 day EMA provided resistance, while the 1185 level provided support.Gold's price has been oscillating about its 20 day EMA, and is trading below its three EMAs in a bear market. Strong volumes on recent down days show that bears are in full control of the chart.Daily technical indicators are looking bearish and showing downward momentum. MACD is about to cross below its signal line in bearish zone. RSI and Slow stochastic are falling below their respective 50% levels. Expect the sideways consolidation to continue a bit longer.The US Dollar index has been rising for the past two weeks, keeping gold's price on a tight leash. On longer term weekly chart (not shown), gold’s price closed well below its three weekly EMAs in long-term bear territory. The 'death cross' of the 50 week EMA below the 200 week EMA has technically c..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Oct 03, 2018)

11 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on the two trading days (Mon. & Wed.) this week. Their total net selling was worth Rs 33.9 Billion. DIIs were net buyers on both days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 32.1 Billion, as per provisional figures.Nikkei India's Manufacturing PMI strengthened to 52.2 in Sep '18 from 51.7 in Aug '18. (A figure greater than 50 means expansion). GST collections rose to Rs 944 Billion in Sep '18 from Rs 937 Billion in Aug '18.Auto sales during Sep '18 were a mixed bag. Bajaj Auto, Hero Moto, TVS Motors, Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland showed good growth. Eicher Motors, Maruti, Escorts, M&M disappointed.Providing some respite for bulls, the daily bar chart pattern of Nifty found good downside support from the zone between 10800 and 10900, and closed above its 200 day EMA in bull territory.The 20 day EMA has crossed below the 50 day EMA - just as it did in Feb '18. A deeper correction below the 200 day EMA had followed then. The ..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Sep 21, 2018): corrective moves approach support zones

11 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on Thu. (Sep 27), but net sellers on the other four days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 37.1 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on Thu. but net buyers on the other four days. Their total net buying was worth a huge Rs 84.4 Billion, as per provisional figures.Demand for services and manufactured goods slowed in Aug. '18, while a cross-section of high-frequency indicators compiled by Bloomberg News suggest economic growth may moderate in the coming months from an 8%-plus pace in the Apr-Jun '18. A recent report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) stated that trade tariff tussle between USA and China is a symptom of a "deeper malaise". The report added that four BRICS nations, including India, are doing better because of their domestic demands.BSE Sensex index chart patternAfter the panic selling on Fri. Sep 21, the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex got some respite..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Sep 21, 2018): bulls shove aside bear resistance

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500 bounced up after receiving support from its 20 day SMA (blue dotted line) and rose to penetrate the upper Bollinger Band on Thu. Sep 20. On Fri., the index touched a new high of 2941 with a huge volume surge, but formed a small 'reversal day' bar (higher high, lower close). That can trigger a corrective move towards the lower Bollinger Band.Daily technical indicators are bullish and looking overbought. MACD has crossed above its signal line and is poised to re-enter overbought zone. RSI is facing resistance from the edge of its overbought zone. Slow stochastic is inside its overbought zone. All three indicators are showing negative divergences by touching lower tops.On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index closed above its three rising weekly EMAs in a long-term bull market. Weekly technical indicators are looking overbought. MACD is rising abo..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Sep 14, 2018): bears trying to spoil the bull party

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500 had touched a high of 2916.50 on Aug 29. In the process, the index had penetrated its upper Bollinger Band. As often happens after such an event, a corrective move followed.The index received good support from its 20 day SMA (marked by blue dotted line) and bounced up to close above the 2900 level in bull territory. A convincing move above the Aug 29 top will restore control to bulls. A failure to do so will encourage bears to go on the offensive.Daily technical indicators are looking bullish. MACD is about to cross above its signal line in bullish zone. RSI has bounced up after receiving support from its 50% level. Slow stochastic had dropped below its 50% level but has since moved above it.On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index closed above its three rising weekly EMAs in a long-term bull market. Weekly technical indicators are looking overbought. MACD is rising above i..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Sep 05, 2018)

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon. & Wed. (Sep 3 & 5) but net buyers on Tue. (Sep 4). Their total net selling was worth Rs 3.7 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon. & Tue. but net buyers on Wed. Their total net selling was worth Rs 3.9 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's manufacturing momentum slowed in Aug '18. Nikkei India's Manufacturing PMI eased to 51.7 from 52.3 in Jul '18 and 53.2 in Jun '18. Nikkei India's Services PMI fell to 51.5 in Aug '18 from 54.2 in Jul '18 owing to weakest growth in new orders in three months. The Composite PMI (Manufacturing+Services) fell to 51.9 from 54.1 in Jul '18.The following comments were made in last week's technical update on the daily bar chart pattern of Nifty: "For the past two months, the index has been trading within a steep upward-sloping channel. Such a steep rise - mainly led by a few large-cap stocks - is unsustainable for long."The sharp rally within an u..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Aug 31, 2018): in upward trading channels

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on Mon. & Thu. (Aug 27 & 30), but net sellers on the other three days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 5.8 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on Mon. Wed. & Fri. but net sellers on Tue. & Thu. Their total net buying was worth Rs 6.1 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's GDP growth during Q1 (Apr-Jun) of FY 2018-19 was an impressive 8.2% - above expectations of most economists - albeit due to a lower base effect. However, the fiscal deficit during Apr-Jul '18 touched Rs 5.4 Trillion, which is 86.5% of the budgeted target for FY 2018-19.Maruti sales in Aug '18 declined 3.6%. Hyundai (3.4%) and Ford (3.4%) showed moderate sales growth. Sales of M&M (14%), Toyota (17%) and Tata Motors (27%) showed strong double-digit growth.BSE Sensex index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Sensex touched a new high of 38990 on Aug 29, but formed a 'reversal day' bar (higher high, lower close) th..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Aug 24, 2018): bulls remain on top but bears refusing to give up

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternNote the following comment from last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500: "A convincing move above the Aug 7 top of 2863 should take the index to a new lifetime high after almost 7 months."On Tue. Aug 21, the index tested its Jan 26 top of 2873, but slipped down to close exactly at its Aug 7 top of 2863. Two days of sideways consolidation followed, with the index dropping below 2860.On Fri. Aug 24, the index touched a new lifetime high of 2876 after almost 7 months before closing just below 2875. Time for bulls to celebrate?Not yet. While the index was touching new highs during the past month, volumes have been sliding down. Also, all three technical indicators have been showing negative divergences by touching lower tops.All three EMAs are rising, and the index is trading above them in a bull market. However, technical headwinds may trigger some consolidation or correction. It is better to err on the side of caution when the index i..
                 

Gold and Silver charts: strong US Dollar index wreaks havoc on precious metal bulls

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
Gold chart patternAfter consolidating sideways for more than two weeks between 'Support/Resistance zone 2 (1237-1248)' and 'Support/Resistance zone 3 (1200-1210)', the daily bar chart pattern of Gold dropped to close below 1200 on Mon. Aug 13.A brief pullback above 1200 the next day faced more selling pressure from bears. On Thu. Aug 16, gold's price dropped below 1170 - thanks to a rising US Dollar index - losing more than 200 points from its Apr '18 top of 1370. A dip in the US Dollar index triggered a pullback towards 1200. Gold's price is trading well below its three daily EMAs in a bear market. Expect the falling 20 day EMA to provide resistance to gold's price - as it has done for more than 4 months.Daily technical indicators have corrected oversold conditions, but remain in bearish zones. MACD has received support from the edge of its oversold zone. RSI and Slow stochastic have emerged from their respective oversold zones.On longer term weekly chart (not shown), gold’s..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Aug 15, 2018)

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on the first two trading days this week. Their total net selling was worth Rs 13.5 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on Mon. and Tue. Their total net buying was worth Rs 6.1 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's CPI inflation slowed to 4.17% in Jul '18 compared to 4.9% in Jun '18. WPI inflation also slowed to 5.09% in Jul '18 against 5.77% in Jun '18. Cheaper fruit and vegetable prices helped to slow down inflation.India's trade deficit worsened to US $18 Billion in Jul '18. While exports rose 14.3% to US $25.8 Billion, imports rose 28.8% to US $43.8 Billion. For the Apr-Jul '18 period, trade deficit touched US $63 Billion.After touching a new high of 11495 on Aug 9. the daily bar chart pattern of Nifty had a brief correction that received good support from the (purple) up trend line drawn from the Jun 28 low.All three EMAs are rising, and the index is trading above them in a bull market. However, the rally ..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Aug 10, 2018): bulls have total control

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on Fri. Aug 10, but net buyers on the other four trading days last week. Their total net buying was worth Rs 9.9 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on Mon., Wed. and Fri. (Aug 6,8,10) but net sellers on Tue. and Thu. Their total net buying was worth Rs 3 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's IIP rose to a 5 months high of 7% in Jun '18 compared with an upwardly revised 3.9% in May '18 - helped largely by a lower base effect (IIP was -0.3% in Jun '17).SIAM announced sales of domestic passenger vehicles including cars, UVs and vans showed a YoY decline of 2.71% during Jul '18 - mainly due to lower UV sales. Two-wheeler sales showed YoY growth of about 10% in Jul '18.BSE Sensex index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Sensex touched a new high of 38076 on Thu. Aug 9, but profit booking led to a lower close on Fri. Aug 10. The index gained more than 300 points (0.8%) on a weekly closing basis.All three EMAs a..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Aug 03, 2018): bulls remain on top but bears refusing to give up

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternOn Jul 25, the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500 had partly filled the 13 points downward 'gap' formed on Jan 30. Bear resistance led to a brief correction. The index received twin support from its rising 20 day EMA, and the support/resistance zone between 2780 and 2800. Formation of a small 'double bottom' reversal pattern led to a technical bounce.The index closed at 2840 - just inside the 'gap' and above its three rising EMAs in a bull market. A convincing move (i.e. accompanied by strong volume support) above the 'gap' is required for the index to rise to new highs.Daily technical indicators are looking bullish. MACD is trying to cross above its signal line. RSI and Slow stochastic are showing upward momentum. Bears are likely to put up a fight to defend the 'gap', but may be on the verge of getting vanquished.On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index closed above its three rising weekly EMAs in a long-term ..
                 

WTI and Brent Crude Oil charts: bears trying to keep bulls under control

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
WTI Crude Oil chartAfter breaking out below a 'diamond' reversal pattern, the daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil has been consolidating sideways within a 'symmetrical triangle' pattern. The 50 day EMA is bisecting the 'triangle'.A 'triangle' is usually a continuation pattern. So, the likely breakout should be below the pattern. However, a 'triangle' is also an unreliable pattern. Since the pattern has formed above the rising 200 day EMA in a bull market, an upward breakout can't be ruled out.It may be prudent to wait for the breakout before initiating any buy/sell action.Daily MACD and RSI are in neutral zones, and not showing upward momentum. Stochastic is rising above its 50% level. (At the time of writing this post, oil's price has retreated a bit after facing resistance from the upper edge of the 'triangle'.)On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price received support from its 20 week EMA, and closed above its three weekly EMAs in long-term bull territory. Weekl..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Jul 25, 2018)

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity during the first two trading days this week, but net sellers today. Their total net selling was worth Rs 8.3 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on all three days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 7.4 Billion, as per provisional figures.Nifty had 'lost' 1220 points from its lifetime high of 11172 (touched on Jan 29 '18) to its low of 9952 (touched on Mar 23 '18). By touching a high of 11157 today, 1205 of the 'lost' 1220 points have been regained - but the index has taken more than twice the amount of time to do so.German agro-chemical major Bayer, International Finance Corporation, Netafim and Swiss Re Corporate Solutions launched the 'Better Life Farming' alliance to provide innovative solutions for smallholder farmers in developing economies to help them raise their incomes. The global alliance has now roped in local partners - Yara Fertilisers, DeHaat and Big Basket in India - to scale up its operations.&..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Jul 20, 2018): bull rallies pause after upward breakouts

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on three out of five trading days last week. Their total net selling was worth Rs 12.1 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on three out of five trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 13 Billion, as per provisional figures.The GST Council has given a monsoon bonanza to consumers by reducing tax rates on items like washing machines, refrigerators, vacuum cleaners, water coolers, water heaters, small TVs, electric irons, paints, varnish, handicraft items.Trade issues and higher US interest rate could create outward capital flow pressure for India, but risks this year are more moderate compared with 2013, according to S&P Global Ratings. BSE Sensex index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Sensex touched a new intra-day high of 36748 on Wed. Jul 18, but closed much lower - forming a 'reversal day' bar (higher high, lower close). The index traded within a 490 points range during the week, and lost ..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Jul 13, 2018): bulls wresting control but bears still resisting

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternThe following remarks were made in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500: "A convincing breakout above the 'triangle' and a move above the 2800 level will put bulls back on track to regain control of the chart. Bears will try to make their progress as difficult as possible."The index broke out above the down trend line of the large 'symmetrical triangle' on Mon. Jul 9, but without a significant increase in volumes that would have technically validated the breakout.Though the index rose higher on Tue. Jul 10, it failed to reach the 2800 level. A pullback to the down trend line on Wed. Jul 11 was followed by an upward bounce that just about managed to close above 2800.Daily technical indicators are in bullish zones. MACD is rising above its signal line. RSI and Slow stochastic are moving sideways. All three are showing negative divergences by failing to rise higher with the index.Some consolidation or correction is possible. The ind..
                 

Gold and Silver charts: bears tighten their hold

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
Gold chart patternThe following comments were made in the previous post on the daily bar chart pattern of Gold: "Daily technical indicators are looking oversold. But don't expect a strong fight back by bulls. Any attempt at a pullback will provide another selling opportunity."Bears used every rise to sell. Gold's price dropped to an intra-day low of 1237 on Jul 3, but formed a 'reversal day' bar (lower low, higher close) with good volume support.Oversold technical indicators triggered a pullback rally that is facing resistance from the falling 20 day EMA. A dip in the US Dollar index also helped bullish cause.Daily technical indicators have corrected oversold conditions, but remain in bearish zones. Expect resistance from 1280 if the rally continues further.On longer term weekly chart (not shown), gold’s price closed below its three weekly EMAs in long-term bear territory.  Weekly technical indicators are in bearish zones. MACD is falling below its signal ..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Jul 04, 2018)

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity during the first three trading days this week. Their total net selling was worth a huge Rs 25.3 Billion. DIIs were net buyers on all three days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 12.6 Billion, as per provisional figures.Indian auto sales showed double-digit YoY growth in Jun '18 - albeit on lower base in Jun '17 due to BS IV and GST implementation uncertainties. Maruti (36%), M&M (25%), Tata Motors (63%), Bajaj Auto (65%), Ashok Leyland (28%), Honda Cars (37%) were the leaders of the pack.Nikkei India's Manufacturing PMI improved to 53.1 in Jun '18 from 51.2 in May '18. The Services PMI climbed to 52.6 in Jun '18 from 49.6 in May '18. (The 50 mark separates growth from contraction.) The Composite (Mfg. + Services) PMI rose to 53.3 in Jun '18 from 50.4 in May '18. The following comments were made in last week's update on the daily bar chart pattern of Nifty: "Bears have forced open the door for an index fall below the 5..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Jun 29, 2018): bears refuse to cede any ground to bulls

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
For the month of Jun '18, FIIs were net sellers of equity worth Rs 102.50 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity worth Rs 141.50 Billion, as per provisional figures.Sensex gained barely 100 points (0.3%) on a monthly closing basis, while Nifty lost 22 points (0.2%) despite strong buying by DIIs.At US $529 Billion, India’s foreign currency debt at end-Mar '18 rose 2.4% over its level at end-Mar '17, primarily on account of an increase in commercial borrowings, short-term debt and NRI deposits, according to a release by RBI. India’s fiscal deficit has exceeded 55% of the Budget estimate in just first two months (April-May) of the current fiscal. But it is still lower than what was recorded in the same period last fiscal.BSE Sensex index chart patternThis was the concluding comment in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex: "As long as bears are able to defend the down trend line, the possibility of a fall towards (and even below..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Jun 22, 2018): bulls forced to retreat

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternThe following comments appeared in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500: "In case of further correction, 'GAP 2' should provide strong support." The index consolidated sideways within a 32 points range (between 2743 and 2775) and dropped below its 20 day EMA to seek support from 'GAP 2' on Tue. Jun 19 and Thu. Jun 21.Note that the index formed a small 'rounding top' reversal pattern, which is more clearly visible on MACD and RSI indicators. While MACD has crossed below its signal line in bullish zone, RSI is seeking support from its 50% level.Slow stochastic has dived below its 50% level, and may be hinting at a further fall in the index towards its 50 day EMA. As long as 2680 is not breached, the past 3 months' bullish pattern of 'higher tops, higher bottoms' will remain intact.On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index closed above its three rising weekly EMAs in a long-term bull marke..
                 

WTI and Brent Crude Oil charts: bears trying to gain control

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
WTI Crude Oil chartThe following remarks were made in the previous post on the daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil: "Slow stochastic is well inside its oversold zone. A likely pullback towards the 'Support/Resistance zone' will provide bears another selling opportunity."The expected pullback almost turned into a rally, but formed a bearish 'rising wedge' pattern. Note the sliding volumes during the formation of the 'wedge' pattern, which gave a warning that the rally would not last.On Thu. Jun 14, oil's price rose above the 'support/resistance zone' intra-day, but faced strong resistances from the upper edge of the 'wedge' and the merged 20 day and 50 day EMAs.A sharp breakout below the 'rising wedge' on Fri. Jun 15 was followed by a pullback towards the 'wedge' and the 'support/resistance zone' on Mon. Jun 18. Bears may use the pullback to sell.Daily technical indicators have corrected oversold conditions, but remain in bearish zones. Oil's price is trading above its rising 200 d..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Jun 13, 2018)

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on all three trading days this week. Their total net selling was worth Rs 24 Billion. DIIs were net buyers on all three trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 28.8 Billion, as per provisional figures.CPI inflation rose to a 4 months high of 4.87% in May '18 as compared to 4.58% in Apr '18 and 2.18% in May '17. Higher food and fuel prices were the components stoking inflation.The IIP number increased a little to 4.9% in Apr '18 against a 5 months low of 4.4% in Mar '18. Mining and scientific instruments were positive contributors, while gold jewellery was a negative contributor.The daily bar chart pattern of Nifty shows that bulls are gradually overcoming all the challenges thrown at them by bears - by moving above the downward 'gap' of Feb 5 and testing resistance from the (purple) down trend line.The trigger may have been provided by last Friday's (Jun 8) trading, when the index dropped inside the 'gap' intr..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Jun 08, 2018): bulls try to charge but bears lurk in the shadows

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity worth Rs 13.7 Billion during the week. All their net buying occurred on Mon. Jun 4, when ESOP allottments at HDFC Bank brought down FII threshold limit, allowing them to add to their HDFC Bank holdings. They were net sellers during the rest of the week.DIIs were net buyers of equity worth Rs 21.3 Billion, as per provisional figures. They were net sellers on Mon. Jun 4, and net buyers during the rest of the week. Sensex and Nifty gained about 0.6% each on a weekly closing basis.Nikkei India Services PMI declined to 49.6 in May '18 from 51.4 in Apr '18. Service sector output dipped into contraction (below 50) for the first time in three months. The Composite PMI (Manufacturing + Services) slipped to 50.4 in May '18 from 51.9 in Apr '18.The Serious Fraud Investigation Office (SFIO) has drawn up a list of more than 113,000 shell companies as the government prepares for another onslaught on black money. The database compiled by SFIO has red-flagged more than 8..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Jun 01, 2018): bulls yet to come out of the woods

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternThe following comments were made in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500: "Slow stochastic has formed a 'double top' reversal pattern inside its overbought zone. Some more consolidation or correction is likely."After a long weekend, the index dropped to an intra-day low of 2677 on Tue. May 29, and closed below its 20 day and 50 day EMAs at 2690. Bulls used the opportunity to 'buy the dip'. The index rose above its 20 day and 50 day EMAs and closed with a weekly gain of about 0.5%. Daily technical indicators are in bullish zones. MACD has merged with its signal line, and is moving sideways. RSI and Slow stochastic briefly dropped below their respective 50% levels before recovering.Bulls may make another attempt to fill 'GAP 2' - either partly or completely. Their previous two attempts had failed. May be it will be 'third time lucky'? Even if it is, the upper edge of 'GAP 2' can provide tougher resistance.T..