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Sensex, Nifty charts (Jul 03, 2020): bulls on the verge of regaining control

yesterday  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
For the second straight month, FIIs and DIIs were both net buyers of equity, which explains the strong rallies on Sensex and Nifty charts. However, the net buying reduced considerably - to Rs 54.93 Billion (Jun '20) from Rs 139.14 Billion (May '20) for FIIs; and Rs 24.34 Billion (Jun '20) from Rs 122.93 Billion (May '20) for DIIs. India's Manufacturing PMI rose sharply to 47.2 in Jun '20 from 30.8 in May '20. Services PMI improved to 33.7 in Jun '20 from 12.6 in May '20. The Composite (Mfg. + Serv.) PMI rose to 37.8 in Jun '20 from 14.8 in May '20. All the numbers were below 50 - indicating contraction.Automobile sales were disappointing in Jun '20 on a YoY basis. Maruti, Hyundai, Toyota, M&M showed 50-60% sales decline. Two-wheeler sales declined 25-35%. CV segment remained under extreme stress. Only tractor sales showed growth.BSE Sensex index chart pattern The bulls are gradually regaining control of the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex. After complete..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Jun 26, 2020): 3 months long rallies losing momentum?

8 days ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on Thu. and Fri. (Jun 25 and 26) but were net buyers during the first three trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 5.56 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on Tue. and Fri. (Jun 23 and 26), but were net sellers during the three other days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 13.1 Billion, as per provisional figures.According to a report by S&P Global Ratings, India's economy is in deep trouble. Inability to contain the Covid 19 virus, an anaemic policy response, underlying vulnerabilities, particularly in the financial sector can lead to a contraction in GDP growth by 5% during FY 2020-21.   Despite some of the worst macroeconomic fundamentals in recent memory, millions of new investors with no previous trading history have been piling into Asian stock markets. It is time to remain circumspect.BSE Sensex index chart pattern The daily bar chart pattern of Sensex consolidated sideways with a slight upward bias, spending f..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Jun 19, 2020): facing resistances after sharp rallies

15 days ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on Thu. and Fri. (Jun 18 and 19) but were net sellers during the first three trading days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 33.2 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on Fri. (Jun 19), but were net buyers during the first four days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 26.6 Billion, as per provisional figures. After failing to protect India from Chinese incursion in Ladakh, the government has resorted to its overused jingoistic playbook. PSUs and private companies are being asked to ban or cancel orders for Chinese products and services. Since China's exports to India comprise only about 2% of its total exports, the jingoism is obviously targetted at the domestic audience. Many Indian companies - particularly in pharma and power sectors - are dependent on Chinese goods and services. Their competitiveness will suffer.BSE Sensex index chart pattern The following comments were made in last week's post on the daily bar chart pat..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Jun 12, 2020): correcting after profit booking by FIIs and DIIs

22 days ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on Mon. and Tue. (Jun 8 and 9) but they turned net sellers during the next three trading days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 17.32 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on Wed. and Fri. (Jun 10 and 12), but were net sellers on the other three days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 4.0 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's industrial production in Apr '20 shrank a record 55.4%, with manufacturing crashing 64.3%. Government did not release the IIP growth number. Government withheld the CPI inflation figure for May '20 due to lack of data owing to lockdown restrictions. However, retail food inflation rose 9.28% YoY.BSE Sensex index chart pattern Note the following comment in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex: "...technical headwinds may stall the rally soon." The 'headwinds' included the downward 'gap' formed on Mar 12th, the falling 200 day EMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 35920.The downw..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Jun 05, 2020): FII buying fuels rally

29 days ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on all five trading days. Their total buying was worth a huge Rs 139.27 Billion (which exceeded their net buying for the entire month of May '20). DIIs were net buyers of equity on Tue. and Fri. (Jun 2 and 5), but were net sellers on the other three days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 16.0 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's Manufacturing PMI rose to 30.8 in May '20 from 27.4 in Apr '20. The Services PMI rose to 12.6 in May '20 from a dismal 5.4 in Apr '20. The Composite (Mfg. + Serv.) PMI rose to 14.8 in May '20 from 7.2 in Apr '20. (All the numbers remained well below 50, which indicates contraction.) Passenger vehicle sales slumped 85% YoY in May '20. Maruti, Hyundai, Toyota, M&M reported more than 80% drop in their wholesale numbers. A silver lining was a 2% increase in M&M tractor sales.BSE Sensex index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Sensex rode on the back of strong FII buying to close above its 20 day and 50 da..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (May 29, 2020): shorts get squeezed

one month ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
For the month of May '20, FIIs were net buyers of equity worth Rs 139.14 Billion. (On May 7 alone, the GSK-HUL bulk deal led to their net buying worth Rs 190.6 Billion. Otherwise, they would have been net sellers for the month.) DIIs were net buyers of equity worth Rs 122.93 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's GDP growth during Q4 (Jan-Mar '20) was a dismal 3.1% despite only 7 days of lockdown in Mar '20. That dragged FY 2019-20 GDP growth down to a more than a decade low of 4.2%. GDP during Q1 (Apr-Jun '20) is likely to slip into negative zone.  For FY 2019-20, India's fiscal deficit widened to 4.59% of GDP, overshooting Govt.'s upwardly revised target of 3.8%. The actual deficit was Rs 9.35 Trillion, which was 22% higher than the revised target of Rs 7.66 Trillion.BSE Sensex index chart pattern The daily bar chart pattern of Sensex made a sharp up move in a holiday-shortened trading week that included monthly F&O expiry on Thu. May 28. Shorts got squeezed as both F..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (May 08, 2020): correcting after false breakouts above rising wedge patterns

one month ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on the first three days of the week but net buyers on the next two days. Their total net buying was worth a whopping Rs 185.9 Billion - due entirely to the GSK-HUL bulk deal on Thu. May 7. DIIs were net buyers of equity on Wed. and Thu. (May 6 and 7), but net sellers on the other three trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 9.18 Billion, as per provisional figures.Thanks to the countrywide virus lock-down, India's Manufacturing PMI fell to an all-time low of 27.4 in Apr '20 from 51.8 in Mar '20. (A number below 50 indicates contraction.) Services PMI plunged to an unprecedented low of 5.4 in Apr '20 from 49.3 in Mar '20. Composite (Manufacturing + Services) PMI plummeted to 7.2 in Apr '20 from 50.6 in Mar '20.As per Moody's, India's GDP growth will be nil during FY 2020-21 because of the deep shock triggered by the coronavirus outbreak. Downside risks to growth will increase if the lockdown is extended beyond May 17th.BSE Sensex index chart..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Apr 17, 2020): counter-trend rallies form bearish rising wedge patterns

2 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
In another holiday-shortened week, FIIs were net buyers of equity on Wed. (Apr 15), but net sellers on the other three trading days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 41.97 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on Thu. and Fri. (Apr 16 and 17), but net sellers on Mon. and Wed. (Apr 13 and 15). Their net selling was worth Rs 3.39 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's CPI-based inflation eased to 5.91% during Mar '20 from 6.58% during Feb '20 due to a sharp fall in food inflation. CPI was 2.86% in Mar '19.Merchandise exports in Mar '20 was worth US $21.41 Billion, down 34.57% from $32.72 Billion in Mar '19. Imports contracted 28.72% to $31.16 Billion. The trade deficit narrowed to $9.75 Billion - the lowest in 13 months.RBI reduced the reverse repo rate by 25 basis points (0.25%) and the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) for banks to 80% from 100% in a bid to inject more liquidity into the banking system. Without a proper fiscal stimulus from the government, such m..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Mar 27, 2020): short covering rallies after touching 3 year lows

3 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs eased up on their huge selling spree. They were net sellers of equity on the first four trading days, but were net buyers on Fri. Mar 27. Their total net selling was worth Rs 71.65 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on Thu. Mar 26, but were net buyers on the other four days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 43.08 Billion, as per provisional figures.RBI resorted to out-of-turn interest rate cuts in a desperate bid to stop the economy from sliding further. The Repo rate was cut by 75 bps (0.75%) to 4.4%, which is lower than its previous low of 4.74% in Apr '09. The Reverse Repo was cut by 90 bps (0.9%) to 4%. The CRR was cut by 100 bps (1%) to 3%, which is likely to inject Rs 1.4 Trillion into the banking system. The move is expected to encourage banks to lend more.BSE Sensex index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Sensex dropped to touch a new 3 year low of 25639 on Tue. Mar 24 before embarking on a sharp and swift short-covering rally. The index t..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Mar 06, 2020): getting ready to enter bear markets?

4 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on all five trading days of the week. Their total net selling was worth a huge Rs 107.20 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on all five days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 100.93 Billion, as per provisional figures. After touching an 8-year high of 55.3 in Jan '20, India's Manufacturing PMI slipped to 54.5 in Feb '20. (A figure above 50 indicates expansion.) However, India's Services PMI rose from 55.5 in Jan '20 to a 7-year high of 57.5 in Feb '20. The Composite (Manufacturing + Services) PMI rose from 56.3 in Jan '20 to 57.6 in Feb '20.As per CMIE, India's unemployment rate rose to 7.78% in Feb '20 - highest in 4 months - from 7.16% in Jan '20. In rural areas, unemployment rate increased to 7.37% in Feb '20 from 5.97% in Jan '20; in urban areas, it fell to 8.65% from 9.7%.BSE Sensex index chart patternNote the following comments from last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex:"... worrisome for bulls is the 336 ..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Feb 20, 2020): sideways consolidation continues

4 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
In a holiday-curtailed trading week, FIIs were net sellers of equity during the first three days, but net sellers on Thu. (Feb 20). Their total net buying was worth Rs 8.56 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon., Tue. and Thu. (Feb 17, 18 and 20), but net buyers on Wed. (Feb 19). Their total net selling was worth Rs 5.73 Billion, as per provisional figures.On a YoY basis in Jan '20, India's passenger vehicle, commercial vehicle and two-wheeler registrations contracted by 4.6%, 6.8% and 8.9% respectively. Registrations for three-wheelers and tractors grew by 9.2% and 5.1%.As per ASPA, India's counterfeit auto parts market was worth Rs 1 Trillion in 2019 -  adversely affecting the automobile industry. Selling spurious parts results in a tax revenue loss of Rs 22 Billion to the government.BSE Sensex index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Sensex oscillated about its 20 day and 50 day EMAs, while trading sideways within a range of 800 points during a truncated..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Feb 01, 2020): disappointing budget may trigger a deeper correction

5 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
For the month of Jan '20, FIIs were net sellers of equity worth Rs 53.6 Billion. They turned net sellers after three straight months of net buying. DIIs were net buyers of equity during Jan '20. Their total net buying was worth Rs 10.7 Billion, as per provisional figures.The union budget speech by the Finance Minister on Feb 1 was long on sound, sycophancy and needless repetition but short on actionable steps required to boost consumption for stimulating the economy. Investors showed their displeasure by voting with their feet.Low consumer sentiment continued to affect auto sales in Jan '20. Maruti showed a marginal growth in YoY sales, but Hyundai, M&M and Tata Motors showed negative growth.BSE Sensex index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Sensex had touched a lifetime high of 42274 on Jan 20th, but formed a large 'reversal day' bar (higher high, lower close). That had triggered a corrective move below its 20 day and 50 day EMAs.A disappointing budget led to a 1000..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Jan 10, 2020): pullback after breaching up trend lines

5 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity during the first four trading days of the week, but were net buyers on Fri. (Jan 10). Their total net selling was worth Rs 11.5 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon. and Fri., but were net buyers during the other three days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 12.0 Billion - as per provisional figures.Nikkei India's Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.7 in Dec '19 from 51.2 in Nov '19. The Services PMI rose to 53.3 in Dec '19 from 52.7 in Nov '19. (A figure above 50 indicates expansion.) The Composite PMI (Manufacturing + Services) stood at 53.7 - its highest level in 5 months.After contracting for three straight months, India's Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew 1.8% in Nov '19 against 0.2% in Nov '18 on the back of an improving manufacturing sector. However, during Apr-Nov '19 period, IIP growth has averaged just 0.6% against 5% during Apr-Nov '18.BSE Sensex index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Sensex fell sharply belo..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Dec 27, 2019): slip down a bit after touching lifetime highs

6 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
In a holiday-shortened trading week, FIIs were net sellers of equity on Tue. and Thu. (Dec 24 and 26) but net buyers on Mon. and Fri. (Dec 23 and 27). Their total net buying was worth Rs 9.3 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon. and Tue., but were net buyers on Thu. and Fri. Their total net selling was worth Rs 20.5 Billion - as per provisional figures.With tax and non-tax revenues lagging way behind targets, along with weaker private consumption and investments, RBI expects a threat to overall fiscal numbers - even as India's financial system remains resilient.Despite the economic slowdown and weak consumer sentiment across consumer goods, retail and other industry sectors, the Indian eCommerce industry grew 38% to US $76 Billion in 2019.BSE Sensex index chart patternAfter touching a lifetime high of 41810 on Dec 20, the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex slipped down to test support from its rising 20 day EMA, and bounced up to close just around 100 points (0.25%) lowe..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Dec 13, 2019): getting ready to touch new highs

6 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on Mon., Wed. and Fri. (Dec 9, 11 and 13) but were net sellers on the other two trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 1.3 Billion. DIIs were net buyers on all five trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 18.5 Billion - as per provisional figures.India's CPI-based retail inflation rose to a 40 months high of 5.54% in Nov '19 from 4.62% in Oct '19 due to higher food prices. CPI-based inflation was 2.33% in Nov '18. The combination of falling GDP growth and rising inflation and unemployment may lead to stagflation.For the second straight month, India's Index of Industrial Production (IIP) contracted. It was -3.8% YoY in Oct '19 - a slight improvement over -4.3% YoY in Sep '19. For the Apr-Oct '19 period, IIP was 0.5% against 5.7% during Apr-Oct '18.BSE Sensex index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Sensex formed a 'reversal day' bar (lower low, higher close) on Wed. Dec 11 that triggered a sharp bounce above its 20 day EMA by ..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Dec 04, 2019)

7 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs have turned net sellers of equity during the first three trading days this week. Their total net selling was worth Rs 36.4 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on all three trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 26.2 Billion, as per provisional figures.The IHS Markit India Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2 in Nov '19 from a two year low of 50.6 in Oct '19. A figure above 50 indicates expansion. India's GST collection rose to Rs 1.03 Trillion in Nov '19 against Rs 0.95 Trillion in Oct '19 and Rs 0.97 Trillion in Nov '18.Passenger vehicle sales continued to disappoint. 262,892 units were sold in Nov '19 against 284,048 units in Oct '19 and 263,455 units in Nov '18. New product launches helped reduce steep double-digit decline in sales before the festive season.For the past five weeks, the daily bar chart pattern of Nifty had been trading within a bearish 'rising wedge' pattern - from which a downward breakout occurred on Tue. Dec 3.The index found support at its 20 day EM..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Nov 20, 2019)

7 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon. and Tue. (Nov 18 and 19), but were net buyers on Wed. (Nov 20). Their total net selling was worth Rs 6.2 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on on all three trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 7.5 Billion, as per provisional figures.Economists at SBI, Capital Economics and Nomura have lowered their Q2 (Sep '19) GDP growth forecasts to figures between 4.2% and 4.7%. Q2 GDP data will be published on Nov 29.The government remains in denial. Jr Finance Minister stated in Parliament that there is no 5% GDP growth slowdown and the government has no intention of revising the fiscal deficit target.The daily bar chart pattern of Nifty has been consolidating sideways within a 'rectangle' pattern for the past three weeks. The index is still struggling to cross above the 12000 level in a convincing manner.A 'rectangle' usually acts as a 'continuation' pattern. Since the index is trading above its three rising EMAs in a bull market, the like..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Nov 06, 2019)

8 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon. Nov 4, but were net buyers during the next two trading days this week. Their total net buying was worth Rs 13.5 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on on all three trading days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 32.1 Billion, as per provisional figures.Nikkei India's Services PMI rose to 49.2 in Oct '19 from 48.7 in Sep '19, but remained below 50 (indicating contraction) for the second straight month. The Composite (Manufacturing + Services) PMI dropped to a 2 year low of 49.6 - pointing to further weakness in India's economy.Four major Indian drug makers - Cadila (Moraiya plant), Glenmark (Baddi plant), Lupin (Mandideep plus two other plants), Aurobindo (two Hyderabad plants) - have received warning letters from US FDA, showing a hardening stance towards lapses in quality control.The daily bar chart pattern of Nifty is trying to continue its rally towards a new high on the back of FII buying. However, selling by DIIs has k..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Oct 18, 2019): down trend lines breached; new highs on the cards?

8 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on all five trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 32.1 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon. and Thu. (Oct 14 and 17), but net buyers on the other three days of the week. Their total net buying was worth Rs 21.8 Billion, as per provisional figures.According to a Nielsen report, India's FMCG market clocked a value growth of 7.3% during Q2 (Sep '19) - down from 16.2% during Q2 (Sep '18) - as rural growth dropped below urban growth for the first time in 7 years.  The IMF has supported India's monetary policy stimulus and recent reduction in corporate income tax, which are expected to help revive investment. However, India should address continued fiscal consolidation and the NBFC issues.BSE Sensex index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Sensex got a sharp bullish boost as FIIs turned buyers during the week. The index breached the (blue) down trend line that has dominated the chart for the past four mo..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Oct 04, 2019): bears trying to regain control

9 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
In a holiday-shortened trading week, FIIs were net sellers of equity on all four days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 32.6 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on all four days of the week. Their total net buying was worth Rs 34.8 Billion, as per provisional figures.Nikkei India's Manufacturing PMI for Sep. '19 was stagnant at 51.4 - same as in Aug '19. (A figure above 50 indicates growth.) The Services PMI for Sep. '19 contracted to a 19 month low of 48.7, from 52.4 in Aug '19. The Composite PMI (Manufacturing + Services) dropped below the 50 mark for the first time since Feb '18.Major automobile makers - including Maruti, M&M, Hyundai, Tata Motors, Honda, Toyota - reported double digit declines in domestic passenger vehicle sales in Sep. '19. Onset of the festive season has failed to reverse the ongoing slump in the auto industry. BSE Sensex index chart patternThe 300 points upward 'gap' that formed on the daily bar chart pattern of Sen..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Sep 20, 2019): short covering causes euphoric upward breakouts

9 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity during the first four trading days of the week, but were net buyers on Fri. (Sep. 20). Their total net selling was worth Rs 33.7 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on all five days of the week. Their total net buying was worth Rs 48.2 Billion, as per provisional figures.After three disappointing 'booster' packages, the Finance Minister hit the ball out of the park by announcing a significant cut in corporate taxes on Fri. Sep 20. Sensex and Nifty soared - trapping unwary short sellers - and business leaders sang 'Hallelujah'. The GST council announced reduction in rates for hotels, outdoor caterers, precious/semi-precious stones but hiked rates for caffeinated drinks and railway wagons. No major relief was provided to auto and cement sectors.BSE Sensex index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Sensex fell steadily on the back of sustained FII selling, and dropped to test support from the lower edge of the 'suppo..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Sep 06, 2019): consolidating inside support zones

10 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
During a holiday-shortened trading week, FIIs were net sellers of equity on all four days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 52.7 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on all four trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 44.6 Billion, as per provisional figures.The market started a pullback rally from Wed. Sep 4 expecting announcement of a third set of measures for boosting India's sagging economy. Instead, the Finance Minister promised to consider more measures after consultations.After strong rallies, prices of gold and silver corrected sharply during Thu. and Fri. (Sep 5 and 6). With global stock markets on recovery paths, some more near-term downside in precious metals is possible.BSE Sensex index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Sensex dropped sharply and lost 770 points on Tue. Sep 3 due to heavy selling by FIIs after the long week end. There was some recovery during the rest of the week, but the index closed below its three EMAs inside the..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Aug 28, 2019)

10 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on all three trading days this week. Their total net selling was worth Rs 26.1 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on all three trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 27.9 Billion, as per provisional figures.RBI's transfer of Rs 1.76 Trillion surplus to the government has drawn wide-spread criticism from 'Harvard economists'. It is unfortunate that the first action of the 'hard work economists' to tackle the economic slowdown was to put their collective hands inside RBI's till. As per Moody's, the 'booster package' announced by the Finance Minister on Fri. Aug 23 may boost investor and business sentiments, but won't be able to prevent India's GDP growth to slip to 6.4% for FY 2019-20.The following remark was made in last week's technical update on the daily bar chart pattern of Nifty: "Nifty's previous (Aug 5) low of 10783 may get tested, and breached."The day after breaking out below a 'rising wedge' pattern, the index fell below its..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Aug 16, 2019): fight back by bulls fizzling out?

10 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
In a holiday-shortened trading week, FIIs were net sellers of equity on Tue. and Fri. (Aug 13 and 16), but were net buyers on Wed. Aug 14. Their total net selling was worth Rs 3.6 Billion. DIIs were net buyers on all three trading days of the week. Their total net buying was worth Rs 28.8 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's CPI based inflation eased marginally to 3.15% in Jul '19 from 3.18% in Jun '19 due to softening fuel prices. CPI inflation was 4.17% in Jul '18. WPI based inflation dropped to a multi-year low of 1.08% in Jul '19 from 2.02% in Jun '19. WPI inflation was 5.27% in Jul '18.India's merchandise exports grew 2.25% to US $26.3 Billion in Jul '19 against $25.75 Billion in Jul '18. Imports declined 10.4% to $39.76 Billion in Jul '19 against $44.39 Billion in Jul '18. Trade deficit narrowed to $13.46 Billion in Jul '19 from $18.64 Billion in Jul '18.BSE Sensex index chart patternWithin a larger 'broadening top' pattern, the daily bar chart pattern of Se..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Aug 02, 2019): bears have bulls on the ropes

11 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs continued their heavy net selling of equity during the week. Their total net selling was worth Rs 67.9 Billion. DIIs more than matched FII selling, but couldn't prevent sharp falls in Sensex and Nifty. Their total net buying was worth Rs 82.8 Billion, as per provisional figures.The automobile sector remained in slide mode during Jul '19. Sales tumbled across categories due to weak consumer sentiment. Passenger vehicle sales fell over 30% - worse than the 24.6% fall back in Nov '08.Gross GST collections during Jul '19 was Rs 1.02 Trillion - marginally up from Jun '19, and 5.8% higher than Jul '18 collection. Nikkei India's Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.5% in Jul '19 from 52.1% in Jun '19. A figure above 50% indicates expansion. Growth was driven by domestic demand, while growth in export orders slowed to its lowest level in 15 months.BSE Sensex index chart patternThe following comment appeared in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of&n..
                 

A Look at Long-term Nifty trends

11 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
                 

Gold and Silver charts: break out upwards from consolidation zones

11 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
Gold chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Gold shows three clearly identifiable consolidation patterns - a 'falling wedge', a 'rectangle' and a 'symmetrical triangle'. All three patterns formed after the 'golden cross' of the 50 day EMA above the 200 day EMA technically confirmed a bull market.After breaking out above the 'symmetrical triangle' on Wed. Jul 17, gold's price touched a 52 week high of 1454 on Thu. Jul 18. Note that all three technical indicators showed negative divergences by touching lower tops, which triggered a pullback to the top of the 'triangle'.Daily technical indicators are in bullish zones after correcting overbought conditions, but are not showing much upward momentum. MACD is moving sideways below its falling signal line. RSI is hovering just below its overbought zone. Slow stochastic has bounced up after slipping below its 50% level.The US Dollar index has been consolidating sideways between 96.40 and 97.20 since Jul 5. Gold's price consolidated sideway..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Jul 17, 2019)

11 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity during the first three trading days of the week. Their total net selling was worth Rs 6.8 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on all three days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 14.4 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's WPI-based inflation cooled to a 23 months low of 2.02% in Jun '19 from 2.45% in May '19 and 5.68% in Jun '18. Softening WPI has reinforced expectations of a further interest rate cut by RBI.India's merchandise exports fell 9.71% YoY to US $25.01 Billion in Jun '19. Imports declined 9.06% YoY to $40.29 Billion - a 4 months low. Trade deficit narrowed 8% for the month to $15.28 Billion. Falling imports reflect weakness in demand and activity.The following comment appeared in last week's technical update on the daily bar chart pattern of Nifty: "Slow stochastic has fallen sharply to enter its oversold zone, and can trigger a pullback towards the 50 day EMA." The index corrected and almost completely filled t..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Jul 12, 2019): look ready to correct some more

11 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs have stepped-up their selling. They were net sellers of equity on all five trading days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 28.5 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on all five days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 33.6 Billion, as per provisional figures.The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) slipped to 3.1% in May '19 against 3.8% in May '18. Power generation grew 7.4% against 4.2% a year ago. But mining and manufacturing growth reduced to 3.2% and 2.5% respectively, against 5.8% and 3.6% a year ago.India's CPI-based retail inflation rose to an 8 months high of 3.18% in Jun '19 from 3.05% in May '19, but stayed below RBI's medium-term target of 4%. Rise in food inflation was the mean reason for increase in CPI.BSE Sensex index chart patternNote the following comment from last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex: "Sensex may correct down to completely or partly fill the 'gap' formed on May 20 (marked GAP2 on chart)."On Mon. Jul 8, the i..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Jul 05, 2019): pause after touching new highs

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternThe following comment appeared in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of SPX 500: "It is just a matter of time before bulls overcome bear resistance at the 2954 level."A holiday-shortened trading week started well for bulls. On Mon. Jul 1, the index formed an upward 'gap' and broke out above the resistance level of 2954. However, the upward breakout was not accompanied by a significant increase in volumes - keeping the door open for a pullback.The index rose to touch a new high of 2996 on Jul 3, but faced profit booking and formed a bearish 'hanging man' candlestick on Fri. Jul 5 - closing slightly lower at 2990 with a 1.6% weekly gain.Daily technical indicators are looking bullish and overbought. MACD is above its rising signal line inside its overbought zone. RSI has slipped down after briefly entering its overbought zone. Slow stochastic has re-entered its overbought zone. Note that the technical..
                 

WTI and Brent Crude Oil charts: facing resistances after bouncing up from support zones

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
WTI Crude Oil chartThe daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil bounced up from the support zone (between 50-52) and rose smartly above its 20 day and 50 day EMAs before facing stiff resistance at the 200 day EMA.After two consecutive closes just above the 200 day EMA in bull territory on Jun 26 and 27, oil's price dropped down to seek support from its 50 day EMA on Jun 28. It bounced up to close just below its 200 day EMA on Jul 1.Daily technical indicators are looking neutral to bullish. MACD is above its rising signal line in neutral zone. RSI is moving sideways above its 50% level. Slow stochastic is sliding down inside its overbought zone. Falling volumes during the technical bounce may encourage bears to defend the 200 day EMA vigorously.On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price faced strong resistance from its 200 week EMA and dropped to close just above its 20 week EMA in long-term bear territory. Weekly technical ind..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Jun 26, 2019)

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on all three trading days this week. Their total net buying was worth about Rs 14.7 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on Wed., but were net buyers on Mon. and Tue. (Jun 24 and 25). Their total net buying was worth Rs 13.1 Billion, as per provisional figures.In May '19, India's finished steel exports (319,000 Tonnes) fell 28% compared to May '18. It was at the lowest level since Apr '16. Exports to EU dropped 55%. Exports to Nepal, Sri Lanka, Malaysia were also substantially lower. The 25% import tariff has effectively closed the US market.Currency notes in circulation stood at Rs 21.7 Trillion in end-May '19, showing an increase of more than 22% over the pre-demonetisation level of Rs 17.7 Trillion - according to a written reply in the Rajya Sabha by the Finance Minister. The following remark appeared in last week's technical update on the daily bar chart pattern of Nifty: "Slow stochastic has fallen inside its oversold zone, and can trig..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Jun 21, 2019): consolidating, but showing bearish reversal signs

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on Tue. (Jun 18), but net sellers on the other four days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 15.7 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on Wed. (Jun 19), but net buyers on the other four days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 30.2 Billion, as per provisional figures.USA has warned that it would be compelled to take some "additional action" against India over "unfair" trade practices as the two countries have made "no headway" on these issues.Sovereign Wealth funds and State Pension funds are piling into India, buying stakes in everything from airports to renewable energy, attracted by political stability, reforms and a growing middle class.BSE Sensex index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Sensex consolidated sideways during the week - getting good support from its 50 day EMA - but lost about 250 points (0.6%) on a weekly closing basis. The index is trading well above its rising 200 day EMA in a bull market.However, on the..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Jun 14, 2019): bears trying their best to spoil the bull party

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternThe following comments appeared in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500: "The week's rally was accompanied by sliding volumes. A pullback towards the down trend line is a possibility."The index touched an intra-day high of 2911 on Tue. Jun 11, but pulled back towards the (purple) down trend line, forming a 'reversal day' bar (higher high, lower close).A sideways consolidation in a range of 20 points (2875 - 2895) followed. The index closed above its three EMAs in a bull market, and eked out a 0.5% weekly gain.Daily technical indicators are in bullish zones, but not showing any upward momentum. MACD has crossed above its signal line to enter bullish zone. RSI is moving sideways above its 50% level. Slow stochastic is moving sideways inside its overbought zone. Some more consolidation is possible before the index attempts to scale a new high.On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index ..
                 

Gold and Silver charts: correcting after upward breakouts

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
Gold chart patternNote the following comments made in the previous post on the daily bar chart pattern of Gold: "Recent volume spikes on up days indicate buying interest...Gold's price may make another attempt to break out above the 'wedge'."This time, the breakout above the 'falling wedge' (which is also the 'handle' of a large 'cup and handle' pattern) was successful. Gold's price shot up like a rocket to test its previous (Feb '19) top of 1350, but profit booking dropped it to a close below 1330.Daily technical indicators are looking overbought. MACD has risen sharply to enter its overbought zone. RSI has fallen from its overbought zone. Slow stochastic is sliding down inside its overbought zone. Gold's price may consolidate or correct towards 1310-1320 zone before it can resume its up move.After touching a high of 98.26 on May 23 - its highest level in 2 years - the US Dollar index dropped to a low of 96.40 on Jun 7 before recovering to 96.70. The fall may have triggered ..
                 

WTI and Brent Crude Oil charts: back in bear markets

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
WTI Crude Oil chartThe daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil has lost its valiant struggle to move above the 'support-resistance zone' between 62-64. Bears took control of the chart - thanks to the escalating US-China trade war that may lead to a global economic slowdown.After brief support at the zone between 56-58, oil's price has plunged to seek support from the zone between 50-52.The 20 day EMA has crossed below the 200 day EMA. The imminent 'death cross' of the 50 day EMA below the 200 day EMA will technically confirm a bear market.Daily technical indicators are looking bearish and oversold. MACD is falling below its signal line in bearish zone. RSI and Slow stochastic are falling inside their respective oversold zones. A technical bounce in oil's price is a possibility. Bears are likely to use the opportunity to sell again.On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price has fallen sharply below its three weekly EMAs into long-term bear t..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (May 29, 2019)

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on Mon. (May 27), but were net sellers during the next two days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 4.1 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon. and Wed. (May 29), but were net buyers on Tue. Their total net selling was worth Rs 2.5 Billion, as per provisional figures.The 2nd NDA government has its task cut out as India is facing one of the worst job crisis in several decades. According to an analysis based on data from Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), nearly 5 million people lost their jobs during 2016-18.According to an ICRA report which analysed the Q4 results of 300 odd companies, weakness in consumer spending and lower commodity prices have led to a revenue growth of 10.7% during Jan-Mar '19 - a 6-quarter low. After forming a 165 points upward 'gap' on May 20, the daily bar chart pattern of Nifty rose to touch a lifetime high of 12041 on May 23 (the day election results were announced). But it formed a large 'reversal day' b..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (May 24, 2019): at lifetime highs

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on Wed. May 22, but net buyers on the other four days. Their total net buying exceeded Rs 53.3 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on all five trading days, but could not match the pace of FII buying. Their total net selling was worth Rs 25.8 Billion, as per provisional figures.A SEBI-constituted committee has proposed wide-ranging changes to Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) and FDI schemes to boost capital inflows - by improving 'ease of doing business' for large and well-regulated global entities.A Commerce Ministry strategy paper has suggested steps for reducing import dependence from, and pushing exports to China, and attracting foreign firms that are planning to shift manufacturing bases from China. BSE Sensex index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Sensex formed a 570 points upward 'gap' on Mon. May 20 after exit polls indicated a big victory for the NDA in the general elections.The index closed 350 points above the 39000..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (May 17, 2019): pullback after corrective moves

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternNote the following comment in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of SPX 500: "Friday's 'outside day' candlestick may be hinting at a continuation of the down trend that started after the index touched its lifetime high of 2954 on May 1."On Mon. May 13, the index dropped to test support from the 2800 level, and closed below its 50 day EMA. A technical bounce followed during the next three days. The index breached the 20 day EMA intra-day on Thu. May 16, but failed to close above it.Bears came to the fore on Fri. May 17. The index dropped below its 50 day EMA intra-day, but managed to close just above it. The index remains in a down trend (marked by purple trend line) that started after the index touched a lifetime high of 2954 on May 1.Daily technical indicators are in bearish zones. MACD is moving sideways below its falling signal line. RSI has dropped down after facing resistance from its 50% level. Sl..
                 

Gold and Silver charts: bulls staging a come back?

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
Gold chart patternThe following comment appeared in the previous post on the daily bar chart pattern of Gold: "The past 2 months' trading has formed the 'handle', which itself is looking like a 'falling wedge' from which the likely breakout is upwards."Note that gold's price twice dropped below its 200 day EMA into bear territory, but formed a small 'double bottom' reversal pattern. That triggered a technical bounce that has broken out above the 'falling wedge' (which is the 'handle' of a 'cup and handle') pattern.A strong volume surge accompanied the upward break out - validating it technically. Gold's price managed to close above the 1300 level, and well above its three EMAs in bull territory after a month. Daily technical indicators are looking bullish. MACD is rising above its signal line in bearish zone. RSI is climbing above its 50% level. Slow stochastic has entered its overbought zone, and can trigger a pullback towards the top of the 'wedge'.After touc..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (May 08, 2019)

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs have decided  to 'sell in May and go away'. They were net sellers of equity on all three trading days this week. Their total net selling was worth Rs 22.9 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on all three trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 11.4 Billion, as per provisional figures.Nikkei India's Services PMI dropped to a 7 months low of 51 in Apr '19 from 52 in Mar '19. A figure above 50 indicates expansion. The Composite PMI (Manufacturing + Services) fell to 51.7 in Apr '19 from 52.7 in Mar '19.Key data used for calculating India's GDP growth under the new method are faulty, as per NSSO, as 36% of the companies taken into account for the calculation are either untraceable or wrongly categorised. The daily bar chart pattern of Nifty shows a 'diamond' reversal pattern that has stopped the pre-election rally (from the Feb 19 low of 10586) on its tracks. Is this a sign that the stock market is worried about the outcome of ongoing g..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (May 03, 2019): forming 'diamond' reversal patterns?

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
In a trading week with two holidays, FIIs were net buyers of equity on Tue. and Thu. (Apr 30 and May 2), but net sellers on Fri. (May 3). Their total net buying was worth Rs 3.1 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on Tue. and Fri., but net sellers on Thu. Their total net selling was worth Rs 0.5 Billion, as per provisional figures.Passenger vehicle sales dropped 17% YoY in Apr '19 - the worst decline since Oct '11. All the major OEMs showed declines between 9% (M&M) to 42.5% (Nissan). Honda bucked the trend with growth of 23%.Nikkei India's Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.8 in Apr '19 from 52.6 in Mar '19 (a figure above 50 indicates expansion). It was the slowest pace of expansion in 8 months. BSE Sensex index chart patternFor the past 5 weeks, the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex has been consolidating sideways near the upper edge of a large upward-sloping trading channel.In the process, the index appears to have formed a 'diamond' p..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Apr 26, 2019): bears hanging on for dear life

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on Mon., Wed. and Thu. (Apr 22, 24 and 25), but net sellers on the other two days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 45.2 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on Tue. and Fri. (Apr 23 and 26) but net sellers on the other three days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 36.8 Billion, as per provisional figures.Five years after launch, the Jan Dhan Yojana scheme has achieved a total balance of nearly Rs 1 Trillion. The scheme got a boost from demonetisation in Nov '16, and gained rapid pace in the last 6 months - leading to scepticism on the possible link between elections and spurt in balances. A dark storm cloud (read: rising oil prices) has gathered over the Indian stock market. Prices in petrol pumps have not been revised upwards in proportion to the rise in international oil prices due to the ongoing election. After May 23, that cloud is going to burst upon Indian consumers.BSE Sensex index chart patter..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Apr 18, 2019): all over for the bears, bar the shouting

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
In a week with two holidays, FIIs were net buyers of equity on all three trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 27.9 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on Mon. and Tue. (Apr 15 and 16) but net sellers on Thu. Apr 18. Their total net buying was worth Rs 2.8 Billion, as per provisional figures.The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation rose for the second consecutive month to 3.18% in Mar '19, against 2.93% in Feb '19 and 2.74% in Mar '18 - due to higher vegetable prices and rise in the 'fuel and power' category.During FY 2018-19, India's exports and imports grew ~9% to US $331 Billion and US $507.4 Billion respectively. The trade deficit widened to $176.4 Billion against $162 Billion in FY 2017-18. However, for the month of Mar '19, the trade deficit narrowed to US $10.9 billion compared to US $13.5 Billion in Mar '18.  BSE Sensex index chart patternThe following comment was made in the previous post on the daily bar..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Apr 12, 2019): consolidating after touching new highs

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on all five trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 43.5 Billion during the week. DIIs were net buyers of equity on Wed. Apr 10 but net sellers on the other four days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 8.8 Billion, as per provisional figures.The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) in Feb '19 grew 0.1% - the slowest since a contraction of 0.3% in Jul '17 - due to 8.8% decline in capital goods and 0.3% decline in manufacturing. IIP was 1.4% in Jan '19 and 6.9% in Feb '18.India's Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation rose to 2.86% in Mar '19 from 2.57% in Feb '19, but remained comfortably within RBI's target of 4%. For FY 2018-19, CPI declined to 3.41% from 3.59% in FY 2017-18.BSE Sensex index chart patternAfter touching a new high of 39270 on Wed. Apr 3, the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex faced some expected profit booking, and pulled back towards its rising 20 day EMA.The index is consolidating ..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Apr 05, 2019): rising to new highs

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternThe following comments were made in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500: "A convincing move above 2875 will clear the path for the index to touch a new high. Bears may continue to yield ground grudgingly."After facing resistance near the 2875 level during the first four trading days, the index rose to close at 2893 on Fri. Apr 5 - gaining 2% on a weekly closing basis. It seems just a matter of time before the index rises to a new lifetime high.Daily technical indicators are looking bullish and overbought. MACD is rising above its signal line. RSI looks ready to enter its overbought zone. Slow stochastic is inside its overbought zone. All three EMAs are moving up, and the index is trading above them in a bull market. However, negative divergences visible on all three indicators - which failed to rise to new highs with the index - can trigger some correction or consolidation.On longer term weekly char..
                 

WTI and Brent Crude Oil charts: overhead resistances can stall the rallies for a while

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
WTI Crude Oil chartThe daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil has broken out above its 200 day EMA into bull territory. The possibility was mentioned in the previous post. The zone between 62 and 64 had acted as a support zone during Apr-Aug '18. It is likely to act as a resistance zone for a while.Daily technical indicators are looking bullish. MACD is trying to cross above its signal line in bullish zone. RSI is is poised to enter its overbought zone. Slow stochastic is inside its overbought zone. All three indicators are showing negative divergences by failing to rise higher with oil's price. Some consolidation or correction is possible before oil's price can overcome the resistance zone.On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price closed above its three weekly EMAs in long-term bull territory after 5 months. Weekly technical indicators are looking bullish. MACD is rising above its signal line towards neutral zone. RSI is moving above its..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Mar 27, 2019)

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on all three trading days this week. Their total net buying was worth Rs 26.3 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon. & Tue. (Mar 25 & 26) but net buyers today. Their total net selling was worth Rs 0.74 Billion, as per provisional figures.According to ICRA, Indian basmati rice exports may touch an all-time high of Rs 300 Billion in FY 2018-19, on the back of strong demand from Iran and firming up of prices. The previous highest export figure was Rs 293 Billion in FY 2013-14.A consortium of Tata Group, GIC (Singapore's sovereign wealth fund) and SSG Capital Management will invest Rs 80 Billion to buy a stake in GMR Airports Ltd, which is a unit of GMR Infrastructure Ltd. GMR operates airports at Hyderabad, Delhi, Cebu (Philippines), and is building airports at Goa and Crete (Greece). Note the following comments from the previous technical update on the daily bar chart pattern of Nifty: "The index is just 400 ..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Mar 15, 2019): trying to overcome resistance levels

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500 shows that bulls are trying their best to break free from bear domination. The index bounced up after receiving support from its 50 day EMA, and made another attempt to climb above the resistance zone (between 2800 and 2825).After a brief setback on Thu. Mar 14, the index rose to touch an intra-day high of 2831 - its highest level in 5 months - but failed to sustain above the resistance zone. The index closed above its three EMAs in a bull market, gaining 2.9% on a weekly closing basis. Friday's volume spike may be a sign of a 'buying climax'.Daily technical indicators are looking bullish. MACD is ready to cross above its falling signal line in bullish zone. RSI is rising towards its overbought zone. Slow stochastic is inside its overbought zone. All three indicators are showing negative divergences by failing to touch new highs with the index. Some consolidation or correction may fo..
                 

WTI and Brent Crude Oil charts: consolidating below resistance levels

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
WTI Crude Oil chartNote the following comment from the previous post on the daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil: "Some consolidation is likely before oil's price can attempt to move higher."Resistance from the 58 level was tested intra-day on Mar 1, but oil's price formed a 'reversal day' bar (higher high, lower close) that triggered a sideways consolidation with a slight downward bias.The 50 day EMA provided support. Oil's price closed above its 20 day and 50 day EMAs, but below its 200 day EMA in bear territory. Output cuts led by OPEC and good demand may enable oil's price to move above its 200 day EMA into bull territory. Daily technical indicators are in bullish zones but not showing much upward momentum. MACD is moving sideways below its signal line in bullish zone. RSI is treading water above its 50% level. Slow stochastic has fallen from its overbought zone. Some more consolidation is possible.On longer term weekly chart (not shown),..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Mar 06, 2019)

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were were net buyers of equity on the two trading days this week. Their total net buying was worth Rs 18.8 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on Tue. (Mar 5), but net sellers today. Their total net selling was worth Rs 3 Billion, as per provisional figures.Nikkei India's Services Purchase Manger's Index (PMI) rose to 52.5 in Feb '19 from 52.2 in Jan '19. (A figure above 50 indicates growth.) The Composite PMI (Manufacturing + Services) rose to 53.8 in Feb '19 from 53.6 in Jan '19. According to data compiled by Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), the unemployment rate in India rose to 7.2% in Feb '19 from 5.9% in Feb '18. It was the highest unemployment rate since Sep '16.The daily bar chart pattern of Nifty shows that bulls came back re-energised after the long weekend. Bullish sentiments had already received a boost last Friday (Mar 1) when the shot-down Indian pilot was returned unharmed by our not-so-friendly neighbour.War hyster..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Mar 01, 2019): bulls and bears locked in a stalemate

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on all five trading days. Their total net buying was worth a huge Rs 76.4 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on Wed. and Fri. (Feb 27 and Mar 1), but net sellers on the other three trading days. Their total net selling was worth an equally huge Rs 75.2 Billion, as per provisional figures.On Thu. Feb 28 (F&O expiry day), net selling by DIIs exceeded Rs 52 Billion, which turned them into net sellers (Rs 5.7 Billion) for the month. FII net buying during Feb '19 exceeded Rs 135 Billion, which was their highest net buying in a month since Mar '17. Despite heavy FII buying, Sensex (-1%) and Nifty (-0.3%) closed lower for the month.Nikkei India's Manufacturing Purchase Manager's Index (PMI) rose to a 14 month high of 54.3 in Feb '19 from 53.9 in Jan '19, due to increase in sales that fuelled growth of output and employment. (A figure above 50 indicates expansion.)Auto sales figures in Feb '19 were a mixed bag. Maruti (..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Feb 22, 2019): pullback rallies facing overhead resistances

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternThe following comments were made in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500: "The 'golden cross' of the 50 day EMA above the 200 day EMA will technically confirm a bull market. Bears may try to prevent that from occurring by defending the 'resistance zone' between 2800 and 2825.."In a holiday-shortened trading week, the index consolidated sideways with a slight upward bias and gained 0.6% on a weekly closing basis. However, bears defended the 'resistance zone' well and prevented the 'golden cross' for the time being.Daily technical indicators are looking overbought. MACD is rising above its signal line in overbought zone. RSI is facing resistance from the edge of its overbought zone. Slow stochastic is moving sideways inside its overbought zone, but is showing negative divergence by touching a lower top. Some more consolidation can be expected before the index makes an attempt to cross above the resistance z..
                 

Gold and Silver charts: rallies ready to resume after another pause

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
Gold chart patternOverbought weekly technical indicators led to the following concluding comment in the previous post on the daily bar chart pattern of Gold: "A pullback towards 1300 is a possibility."The expected pullback touched an intra-day low of 1304.70 on Thu. Feb 14, but bounced up after receiving support from the rising 20 day EMA. Gold's price is trading above its three rising EMAs in a bull market.Daily technical indicators have corrected overbought conditions, but remain in bullish zones. MACD is below its signal line but its downward momentum has stalled. RSI is moving up towards its overbought zone. Slow stochastic has stopped falling but is not showing any upward momentum yet.After a sharp rise, the US Dollar index is sliding down a bit. That ought to encourage bulls to push gold's price higher.On longer term weekly chart (not shown), gold’s price closed above its three weekly EMAs in long-term bull territory for the eighth week in a row. The impending 'golden cross'..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Feb 13, 2019)

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on all three trading days this week. Their total net selling was worth Rs 12.7 Billion. DIIs, who were also net sellers of equity on Mon. and Tue. (Feb 11 and 12), were net buyers today. Their total net buying was worth Rs 3.6 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's CPI-based retail inflation eased to a 19 months low of 2.05% in Jan '19 from a revised 2.11% in Dec '18, and was much lower than 5.07% in Jan '18. Negative food inflation was the main reason for the low inflation number.IIP (factory output) showed a 2.4% growth in Dec '18 from 0.3% in Nov '18. IIP was 8.4% in Oct '18. For the Apr-Dec '18 period, IIP growth was 4.6% over Apr-Dec '17.The following remark was made in last week's technical update on the daily bar chart pattern of Nifty: "A convincing close above 11090 - which is the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level of the 1756 points correction from the Aug '18 top of 11760 to the Oct '18 low of 10004 - will put bull..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Feb 08, 2019): false breakouts above Fibonacci resistance zones

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon. (Feb 4) but net buyers on the other four trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 22.6 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on Tue., Wed. and Thu. (Feb 5, 6 and 7) but net sellers on Mon. and Fri. Their total net selling was worth Rs 116 Million, as per provisional figures.Sluggish returns, market volatility and political uncertainty are affecting inflows into equity mutual funds in India. Inflows in Jan '19 dropped to Rs 61.6 Billion from Rs 66.1 Billion in Dec '18 and Rs 84.1 Billion in Nov '18.As many as 363 infrastructure projects, each worth Rs 1.5 Billion or more, have incurred cost over-runs of over Rs 3.42 Trillion due to delays in land acquisitions, forest clearance and supply of equipment. BSE Sensex index chart patternThe following comments were made in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex: "All four technical indicators are showing negative divergences by touchin..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Feb 01, 2019): pullback rallies gain ground

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of SPX 500 shows a dash for glory by bulls that got halted inside the Fibonacci resistance zone between 2640 and 2710 (which are the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels respectively of the correction from the Oct 3 top of 2940 to the Dec 26 low of 2347).In a 'V' shaped counter-trend rally from its Dec 26 low, the index had broken out above its 50 day EMA on Jan 17. For the next 6 trading sessions, it consolidated sideways - receiving good support from its 50 day EMA.On Thu. Jan 31, the index closed above its 200 day EMA in bull territory after 2 months, but bears were not yet ready to give up control. The index gained ~1.6% for the week, but failed to close above the resistance zone.Daily technical indicators are looking bullish and overbought. MACD is rising above its signal line in overbought zone. RSI is above its 50% level, but its upward momentum has weakened. Slow stochastic is rising inside its overbought zon..
                 

WTI and Brent Crude Oil charts: resistance zones cap counter- trend rallies

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
WTI Crude Oil chartThe daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil manged to move above its 50 day EMA, but retreated after facing strong resistance from the 'support/resistance zone' between 53 and 55.Oil's price bounced up a bit after getting support from its 20 day EMA, but is trading well below its falling 200 day EMA in a bear market.Daily technical indicators are turning bearish. MACD is above its signal line in bullish zone, but may be forming a 'rounding top' reversal pattern. RSI is seeking support from its 50% level. Slow stochastic has corrected down from its overbought zone.US sanctions may curb oil exports from Venezuela, but with China's economy slowing down and ample global supply, a sustained rally in oil's price is unlikely.On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price closed below its three weekly EMAs in long-term bear territory. Weekly technical indicators are in bearish zones and not showing much upward momentum. The 50 week EMA has just cro..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Jan 23, 2019)

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on all three trading days this week. Their total net selling was worth Rs 11.5 Billion. DIIs were net sellers on Tue. Jan 22, but net buyers on Mon. & Wed. (Jan 21 & 23). Their total net buying was worth Rs 10.2 Billion, as per provisional figures.In a bid to win a $20-billion Indian Air Force (IAF) order for 114 combat planes, Swedish manufacturer Saab has offered to build 96 Gripen fighter jets in India. The order seeks commitment from vendors about their willingness to supply sensitive technologies as well as carry out bulk of their manufacturing in India.According to D&B Economy Forecast, concerns about the government curtailing its investment due to significant shortfall in tax collections against the target, are expected to keep India's industrial activity subdued in the near term.The following remark appeared in last week's technical update on the daily bar chart pattern of Nifty: "A convincing index close abov..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Jan 18, 2019): unconvincing upward breakouts from 'diamond' patterns

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on Tue. and Thu. (Jan 15 and 17) but net sellers on the other three trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 0.54 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on Thu. and Fri., but net buyers during the first three days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 5.2 Billion, as per provisional figures.As per data available till Sep '18, the total debt of the Indian government has increased by more than 49% to Rs 82 Trillion during NDA's 4.5 year stint - from Rs 54.9 Trillion in Jun '14.Volatility in crude oil prices has hit synthetic textile manufacturers hard, with frequent change in buying behaviour observed for both raw material and finished product segments.BSE Sensex index chart patternIn last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex, the following four possible outcomes of a breakout from the 'diamond' pattern was mentioned: a downward breakout, an upward breakout, a 'false' upward/do..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Jan 11, 2019): pullback rallies run out of steam

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternAfter five straight sessions of higher closes, the pullback rally on the daily bar chart pattern of SPX 500 failed to overcome resistance from the 'support/resistance' level of 2600 and closed slightly lower. The index closed above its 20 day EMA with a weekly gain of 2.5%, but is trading below its 50 day and 200 day EMAs in a bear market.The sharp 'V' shaped rally from the Dec '18 low is typical of bear market rallies. The sliding volumes during the rally is an indication that the rally has probably run its course.Daily technical indicators are looking bullish. MACD is rising above its signal line in bearish zone. RSI is moving sideways just above its 50% level. Slow stochastic is well inside its overbought zone, and can trigger a correction.On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index closed well above its 200 week EMA in long-term bull territory, but remains below its falling 20 week and 50 week EMAs. Weekly technical ind..
                 

Gold and Silver charts: back in bull territories after several months

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
Gold chart patternThe following comments were made in the previous post on the daily bar chart pattern of Gold: "Expect gold's price to consolidate around current level for some time before it makes an attempt to cross above the next 'support/resistance zone' between 1260 & 1270."The consolidation lasted barely three days. Gold's price dropped below 1250 intra-day during Dec 18-20 but received good support from its 200 day EMA. After easily crossing above the 'support/resistance zone' between 1260-1270, gold's price rose almost vertically - thanks to a falling US Dollar index - to touch an intra-day high of 1300 on Jan 4 '19.Formation of a 'reversal day' bar (higher high, lower close) with a surge in volumes have put a temporary halt to the rally. Some correction/consolidation can be expected after a hectic rally.Daily technical indicators are looking bullish and overbought. MACD is at the edge of its overbought zone. RSI has slipped down from its overbought zon..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Jan 02, 2019)

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity during the three trading days this week. Their total net selling was worth Rs 10.0 Billion. DIIs were net buyers on Mon. & Tue. (Dec 31 & Jan 1) but net sellers on Wed. Their total net buying was worth Rs 2.4 Billion, as per provisional figures.YoY auto sales in Dec '18 were muted. Toyota, Bajaj Auto showed double-digit sales growth; Honda, Hyundai, M&M had low single-digit growth; Maruti, Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland, Isuzu, Royal Enfield showed negative growth.Nikkei India's Manufacturing PMI declined to 53.2 in Dec '18 from 54 in Nov '18, as growth in new orders and output moderated. (A figure >50 indicates expansion.) Job creation was the slowest in 4 months.The daily bar chart pattern of Nifty shows that bulls made a valiant attempt to sustain the counter-trend rally from the Oct 26 low of 10005. After touching a higher low of 10534.50 on Dec 26 and bouncing up from the lower Bollinger Band, the index ..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Dec 26, 2018)

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon. (Dec 24) but net buyers on Wed. (Dec 26) after the X'mas break. Their total net selling was worth Rs 5.0 Billion. DIIs were net buyers on Mon. but net sellers on Wed. Their total net buying was worth Rs 0.5 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's low retail inflation is mainly due to food inflation falling to its lowest level since 2014. That directly relates to rural distress, because farmers are not getting adequately remunerated. No wonder they are angry, and voted against the ruling NDA in the recent state elections.The daily bar chart pattern of Nifty shows a smart pullback from the lower Bollinger Band today, after Monday's sharp fall below the three EMAs into bear territory.The index moved above its 200 day EMA and closed at its 50 day EMA - forming a 'reversal day' bar (lower low, higher close) - but stayed below its 20 day SMA (blue dotted line), which is the 'middle band' that sort of acts as the mid-po..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Dec 21, 2018): bears stamp their authority once again

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon. & Thu. (Dec 17 & 20), but net buyers on the other three days of the week. Their total net buying was worth Rs 10.4 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on Thu. (Dec 20), but net sellers on the other four days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 11.4 Billion, as per provisional figures.Equity mutual fund schemes registered a lower net inflow of Rs 84.14 Billion in Nov '18, compared to Rs 126.22 Billion in Oct '18 and Rs 111.72 Billion in Sep '18, mainly due to a volatile market. During the Apr-Nov '18 period, total inflow into equities have exceeded Rs 822 Billion. S. Naren, who manages Rs 3.1 Trillion as CIO of ICICI Pru AMC, says investors need to brace for a run of constrained returns that will last until the US Fed makes a policy U-turn. For 2019, Naren doesn't see investments in Indian equities fetching more than 'mid-teen' percentage gains. BSE Sensex index chart p..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Dec 14, 2018): bears tighten their strangleholds

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternThe following remarks were made in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500: "The strong index volatility during the past two months is an indication of a transition from a bull to a bear market...The impending 'death cross' of the 50 day EMA below the 200 day EMA will technically confirm a bear market."What had appeared inevitable has happened - despite a valiant effort by bulls. The 'death cross' of the 50 day EMA below the 200 day EMA (marked by light grey ellipse) has technically confirmed that the index has fallen into a bear market.The index had dropped below the lower Bollinger Band to an intra-day low of 2583 on Mon. Dec 10 - only to bounce up and close 5 points higher than Friday's close, forming a 'reversal day' bar (lower low, higher close).That triggered a brief pullback rally. The index touched an intra-day high of 2685 on Wed. Dec 12, but again faced resistance from the falling 20 day SMA (blue dotted line). Bears tight..
                 

WTI and Brent Crude Oil charts: sharp corrections find floors for now

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
WTI Crude Oil chartThe daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil had slipped below the 50 level intra-day on Nov 29 & 30, but managed to close above 50 on both days. On Dec 6, oil's price successfully tested support from the 50 level.Announcement of a 1.2 million barrels/day production cut by OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers from Jan '19 appears to have put a floor on oil's price at 50. However, three attempts to rally above 54 faced strong resistance from the falling 20 day EMA.'Death cross' of the 50 day EMA below the 200 day EMA (marked by gray circle) has technically confirmed a bear market. Expect bears to remain in control despite the OPEC production cut because of demand slow down.Daily technical indicators are in bearish zones after correcting oversold conditions. MACD has crossed above its signal line inside its oversold zone. RSI and Slow stochastic have emerged from their respective oversold zones, but are not showing any upward momentum.On longer term weekly chart (not sh..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Dec 05, 2018)

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on Mon. (Dec 3) but net sellers on Tue. & Wed. (Dec 4 & 5). Their total net selling was worth Rs 1.2 Billion. DIIs were net sellers on all three trading days this week. Their total net selling was worth Rs 21.2 Billion, as per provisional figures.Nikkei India's Manufacturing PMI rose to an 11 months high of 54.0 in Nov '18 from 53.1 in Oct '18. It was the 16th straight month of expansion (>50). Nikkei India's Services PMI also rose to 53.7 in Nov '18 from 52.2 in Oct '18. The Composite (Mfg. + Services) PMI rose to 54.5 in Nov '18 from 53.0 in Oct '18.RBI announced an expected status quo on interest rates at its policy meeting today, but kept its calibrated tightening stance intact. However, SLR will be gradually decreased from 19.5% to 18% @25 bps (0.25%) per quarter for the next 6 quarters to increase liquidity for lending in banks.The following comments appeared in last week's technical update on the daily bar c..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Nov 30, 2018): bears face the wrath of bulls

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on Fri. (Nov 30), but net buyers on the first four days of the week. Their total net buying was worth Rs 23.3 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on Wed. (Nov 28), but net buyers on the other four days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 25.2 Billion, as per provisional figures.For the month of Nov '18, FIIs were net buyers of equity worth Rs 49.3 Billion. DIIs were also net buyers of equity worth Rs 13.1 Billion. Both were net buyers in the same month for the first time since Mar '18. With FIIs and DIIs in buying mood, Sensex and Nifty rose to completely fill the downward 'gaps' formed on Oct 4. India's GDP growth slipped to a lower than expected 7.1% during Q2 (Jul-Sep '18) from 8.2% during Q1 (Apr-Jun '18) and 7.7% during Q4 (Oct-Dec '17). For the half year (Apr-Sep '18), GDP growth was 7.6%.Government's fiscal deficit during Apr-Oct '18 was Rs 6.48 Trillion, which was 103.9% of the full yea..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Nov 23, 2018): bears giving bulls a tough time

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternIn a trading week shortened by Thanksgiving holiday, the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500 conceded further ground to bears. The index lost more than 100 points (3.8%) on a weekly closing basis.Though the index closed well below its three EMAs in bear territory, technical confirmation of a bear market ('death cross' of the 50 day EMA below the 200 day EMA) is still awaited.Note that Friday's curtailed trading formed a 'gravestone doji' candlestick pattern, which can lead to a pullback towards the plummeting 20 day EMA. Daily technical indicators are looking bearish. MACD is falling below its signal line in bearish zone. RSI is sliding down below its 50% level. Slow stochastic has dropped inside its oversold zone, and is showing negative divergence by touching a lower bottom. Expect some consolidation before the bears strike again. On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index closed below its 20 week and 50 wee..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Nov 16, 2018): bears trying to assert their authority

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500 shows how bears pounced on weakened bulls. The index dropped below its three EMAs into bear territory, and touched a low of 2671 on Thu. Nov 15 before bouncing up to close at 2736.The index lost 1.6% on a weekly closing basis. Its repeated failures to regain bull territory may be a warning of a deeper correction. The falling 50 day EMA is only 20 points above the 200 day EMA. The 'death cross', which technically confirms a bear market, may follow soon. Daily technical indicators are still giving conflicting signals. MACD has dropped to seek support from its rising signal line in bearish zone. RSI has fallen below its 50% level after crossing above it. Stochastic has dropped from its overbought zone and is just above its 50% level. Some more correction or consolidation is likely.On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index closed below its 20 week EMA but just above it..
                 

WTI and Brent Crude Oil charts: bears go on a rampage

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
WTI Crude Oil chartThe following remarks were made in the previous post on the daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil: "...oil's price has been consolidating within a bearish 'flag' pattern. Some more consolidation/correction is likely."The consolidation within the 'flag' (shaded on chart) didn't last long. A downward breakout on Oct 30 led to a sharp correction and a close below the 60 level for the first time in 8 months.Daily technical indicators are looking bearish and oversold. MACD is falling below its signal line in oversold zone. RSI is well inside its oversold zone. Slow stochastic has remained inside its oversold zone for a month.The 20 day EMA has crossed below the 200 day EMA and is falling sharply. The 'death cross' of the 50 day EMA below the 200 day EMA seems imminent. That will technically confirm a bear market. Saudi Arabia has signalled a production cut from Dec '18. Expect a near-term floor to the plummeting price of oil.On longer term weekly chart (not shown)..
                 

Gold and Silver charts: bulls unable to make any headway against strong bear resistance

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
Gold chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Gold was expected to consolidate sideways in a range between 1220 and 1240. It pretty much did that - remaining below its sliding 200 day EMA in bear territory. Gold's price faced selling pressure when it tried to move above 1240. When it dropped below its 20 day and 50 day EMAs to close at 1212 on Oct 31 - thanks to a spike in the US Dollar index to 97 - it found buying support.Daily technical indicators are in bullish zones but only Slow stochastic is showing upward momentum. MACD has merged with its signal line. RSI bounced up from its 50% level but has started to move down. Slow stochastic is rising above its 50% level. Expect some more sideways consolidation - may be with a slight upward bias.On longer term weekly chart (not shown), gold’s price closed just above its 20 week EMA, but below its 50 week and 200 week EMAs in long-term bear territory. Weekly technical indicators are giving mixed signals. MACD is risi..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Oct 31, 2018)

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on all three trading days this week. Their total net selling was worth Rs 40.2 Billion. DIIs were net buyers on all three days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 50.5 Billion, as per provisional figures.Traditional bellwethers of rural consumption – two-wheeler and tractor sales – have moderated to 5% YoY in Q3 from 16-25% in Q2. Higher fuel prices are also starting to hurt urban demand – September witnessed a 3.6% YoY contraction in passenger vehicle sales. Core sector (coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery, fertiliser, steel, cement, electricity) growth slowed down to a 4 months low of 4.3% in Sep '18 against 4.7% in Sep '17.The daily bar chart pattern of Nifty touched an intra-day low of 10005 on Fri. Oct 26 - its lowest level in 7 months - but all three technical indicators touched slightly higher lows. The positive divergences triggered a sharp counter-trend rally that is facing resistance from the fal..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Oct 26, 2018): Fibonacci support zones in danger of getting breached

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs intensified their net selling of equity shares during the week. Their total net selling was worth Rs 57.5 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on all five trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 45.1 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's fiscal deficit touched 95.3% of full year budget estimate during Apr-Sep '18, compared with 91% during Apr-Sep '17. Spending touched 53.4% against 53.5% last year, but receipts were 39% against 40.6% of full year budget estimate last year.Liquidity position of India's financial markets have worsened with cash deficit widening to Rs 1.4 Trillion this week against a small surplus in the first week of Oct '18. RBI's efforts to improve the situation through bond purchases haven't helped much.BSE Sensex index chart patternThe following comment was made in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex: "A drop inside the Fibonacci support zone (between 33934 and 32372) is on the cards."Th..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Oct 19, 2018): bulls fighting to fend off marauding bears

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternThe following comments were made about the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500 in last week's post: "...it formed an 'inside day' as well as a 'hammer' candlestick pattern. Bulls appear to be ready for a fight back."The index dropped below its 200 day EMA on Mon. Oct 15, but managed to close above the support zone between 2737 and 2689 (the significance of these levels were mentioned in last week's post). It bounced up to touch an intra-day high of 2817 on Wed. Oct 17, but formed a bearish 'hanging man' candlestick pattern.Bears used the opportunity to follow a 'sell on rise' strategy. The index dropped to seek support from its 200 day EMA, and closed flat for the week. (At the time of writing this post, the index is desperately trying to stay above its 200 day EMA - but for how much longer?)Daily technical indicators are looking quite bearish. MACD is falling deeper inside its oversold zone. RSI and Slow stochastic emerged fro..
                 

WTI and Brent Crude Oil charts: correcting after touching 52 week highs

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
WTI Crude Oil chartThe following remark was made in the previous post on the daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil: "Daily technical indicators are looking quite overbought, and can trigger a correction."Oil's price rose to touch a 52 week high of 76.90 on Oct 3, but started correcting from the next day and dropped to seek support from its 50 day EMA. The subsequent pullback is facing resistance from its 20 day EMA.Daily technical indicators are showing downward momentum after correcting overbought conditions. MACD is falling below its signal line in bullish zone. RSI has slipped below its 50% level. Slow stochastic has dropped inside its oversold zone, and can trigger a rally.Oil's price is trading above its 50 day and 200 day EMAs in a bull market. Expect some consolidation before the starting the next leg of the rally.On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price closed above its three weekly EMAs in long-term bull territory. Weekly technical indicators showed negativ..
                 

NIFTY breaks up trend from March 2016

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
Julius de Kempenaer is the creator of Relative Rotational Graphs (RRG), a unique method to visualise relative strength of stocks and sectors. He is the founder and director of RRG Research, Amsterdam. Read more about him here.In a recent post featured on the stockcharts.com site, Kempenaer discusses the decisive break of the up trend on the long-term weekly chart of Nifty, and identifies some of the sectoral indices (based on his RRG) where investors can hide, or expect some outperformance on the down side.Remember that a trend - whether up or down - is expected to remain in force till it is decisively broken. Last week's downward break of the up trend is a clear indication that another bear phase (within a longer-term bull market) has started.For those who are unfamiliar with - or have never heard of - RRG, Kempenaer has clearly explained the concept with notes on his RRG charts.Shown below is the long-term weekly Nifty chart (from Kempenaer's post):Read more at:https://stockcharts.co..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Oct 05, 2018): bears throw a few wicked punches

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternThe following comments were made in the previous post on the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500: "Despite trading near a lifetime high, the index is facing difficulty in shaking the bears off...A correction towards the lower Bollinger Band remains a possibility."The index touched the upper Bollinger Band twice - on Mon. (Oct 1) and Wed. (Oct 3) - but corrected sharply below its 20 day SMA (dotted line) to the lower Bollinger Band by Fri. (Oct 5). The index bounced up a bit after receiving good support from its 50 day EMA, but lost about 1% on a weekly closing basis.The previous occasion when the index dropped to touch the lower Bollinger Band was more than 3 months ago (in end-Jun '18). The index had then consolidated sideways before resuming its up trend. Will the pattern repeat this time? The fact that the index took just a week to wipe out all gains made during the previous three weeks is hinting at a bear resurgence. Daily technical indi..
                 

WTI and Brent Crude Oil charts: at new highs as bulls regain control

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
WTI Crude Oil chartThe daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil received twin support from its 20 day and 50 day EMAs and rose to touch a 52 week high of 75.91 on Oct 2, but formed a small 'reversal day' bar (higher high, lower close).All three EMAs are rising, and oil's price is trading above them in a bull market. Trump's exhortation to OPEC to hike production and put a lid on oil's price appears to have fallen on deaf ears.Daily technical indicators are looking quite overbought, and can trigger a correction. Note the 'double bottom' reversal pattern on Slow stochastic that preceded the recent rally.On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price closed above its three weekly EMAs in long-term bull territory. Weekly technical indicators are looking bullish and showing upward momentum.Brent Crude Oil chartThe daily bar chart pattern of Brent Crude Oil received good support from its 20 day EMA and soared to a 52 week high of 85.45 on Oct 1, before closing ..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Sep 26, 2018)

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on all three trading days this week. Their total net selling was worth Rs 25.6 Billion. DIIs were net buyers on all three days. Their total net buying was worth a whopping Rs 53.7 Billion, as per provisional figures.The government has approved a Rs 55 Billion package for the sugar industry that includes a two-fold increase in production assistance to cane growers, and transport subsidy to sugar mills for exporting up to 5 million tonnes of surplus domestic stock of sugar.India's fiscal deficit for the period Apr-Aug '18 touched 94.7% of the estimate for the full year. However, it was slightly lower than the 96.1% figure during the same period in the previous year.The daily bar chart pattern of Nifty has corrected sharply below its 20 day and 50 day EMAs, but appears to have found some support from the 'Support/Resistance zone 1' (between 10800 and 10900).Though the index is trading above its 200 day EMA in bull territory, a fall ..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Sep 21, 2018): bears threatening to change the market trend

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
Bears (i.e. FIIs) had the upper hand in another holiday-shortened trading week. FIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon., Tue., and Wed. (Sep 17-19), but net buyers on Fri. Sep 21. Their total net selling was worth Rs 26.7 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon. but net buyers on Tue., Wed. and Fri. Their total net buying was worth Rs 17.8 Billion, as per provisional figures.The failure of IL&FS to repay a loan from SIDBI, and RBI's refusal to grant an extension to Yes Bank's MD triggered panic selling in the stocks of banks, NBFCs and Housing finance companies on Fri. Sep 21. DHFL and Yes Bank bore the brunt of the bear attack. BSE Sensex index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Sensex corrected during the first three trading days of the week, falling below its 20 day and 50 day EMAs but remaining within the downward-sloping channel.Friday's panic selling dropped the index well below the channel to an intra-day low of 35993,..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Sep 14, 2018): undergoing bull market corrections

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
In a holiday-shortened trading week, FIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon., Tue., and Wed. (Sep 10-12), but net buyers on Fri. Sep 14. Their total net selling was worth Rs 22.9 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon. but net buyers on Tue., Wed. and Fri. Their total net buying was worth Rs 11.2 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's CPI inflation dropped to a 10 months low of 3.69% in Aug '18 against 4.17% in Jul '18 - thanks to lower food prices. WPI inflation eased to 4.53% in Aug '18 from 5.09% in Jul '18. The IIP number was a healthy 6.6% in Jul '18 - lower than the downwardly revised 6.8% in Jun '18 - on the back of good performance by the manufacturing sector and higher offtake of capital goods and consumer durables.India's exports grew by 19.2% to US $27.8 Billion in Aug '18. Imports grew 25.4% to US $45.2 Billion, leaving a trade deficit of US $17.4 Billion. In Jul '18, trade deficit had soared to a five years hi..
                 

Gold and Silver charts: technical pullback rallies flatter to deceive

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
Gold chart patternOversold technical indicators triggered a pullback rally on the daily bar chart pattern of Gold. After crossing above its 20 day EMA and 'Support/Resistance zone 3 (1200-1210)', gold's price touched a high of 1217 on Aug 28 but formed a 'reversal day' bar (higher high, lower close).That seems to have brought the pullback rally to an end. Gold's price dropped below its 20 day EMA and closed inside 'Support/Resistance zone 3'. (After a dip below 94.50 on Aug 28, the US Dollar index has moved up above 95 - cooling bullish fervour.) Daily technical indicators are turning bearish. MACD is above its signal line in bearish zone, but its upward momentum has stalled. RSI has moved down after facing resistance from its 50% level. Slow stochastic has turned down after facing resistance from the edge of its overbought zone.Gold's price is trading below its three EMAs in a bear market that was technically confirmed by the 'death cross' of the 50 day EMA below the 200 day EMA ..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Aug 29, 2018)

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on Mon. Aug 27 but net sellers on Tue. & Wed. (Aug 28 & 29). Their total net selling was worth Rs 13.2 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on Mon. & Wed. but net sellers on Tue. Their total net buying was worth Rs 20.3 Billion, as per provisional figures.As per RBI, Rs 15.31 Trillion of high-value notes (~99.4%) out of Rs 15.41 Trillion in circulation on Nov 8 '16 (the day Modi announced demonetisation) has been returned to the system. Demonetisation was a spectacular flop that hurt the rural economy the most.A Moody's report has highlighted risks of India breaching the 3.3% fiscal deficit target for FY 2018-19 as higher oil prices will add to short-term fiscal pressures.The daily bar chart pattern of Nifty touched a new high of 11760 on Tue. Aug 28, but lost more than 80 points today as the market appeared to be spooked by the Rupee falling to a record low of 70.51 to the US Dollar.Technical headwinds may have als..