BusinessLine Business Today GoodReturns Blogs Times Of India Rediff DNA ZeeNews The Hindu

Possible Nifty retracement levels

6 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
First the bad news. FIIs were net sellers of equity worth a huge Rs 127 Billion during the previous five trading sessions (Jan 22, 25, 27-29). That is the main reason for Nifty shedding 1150 points (7.8%) from its Jan 21 lifetime top (of 14753.5) to close just below its 50 day EMA.Now the good news. Despite the sharp correction, the index is trading well above its rising 200 day EMA. That means the bull market is alive and kicking.So, is this index dip a good time to buy? That would depend on an investor's risk tolerance and investment time horizon. The best time to buy is when you have money to spare. While timing the market is always difficult, it helps not to buy near market tops. Experienced investors have the patience to wait months (sometimes even years) for better buying opportunities.For those not so experienced, having some idea of index (or stock) retracement levels can help to decide about entry points. Typically, Fibonacci retracement levels of 38.2% and 50% seem ..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Dec 18, 2020): rising higher but showing some signs of fatigue

7 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs continued with their strong buying during the week. They were net buyers of equity worth Rs 118.06 Billion. DIIs tried their best to match them. They were net sellers of equity worth Rs 110.25 Billion. Sensex and Nifty both gained around 1.8% on a weekly closing basis.India's CPI-based retail inflation eased marginally to 6.93% in Nov '20 from a six and a half year high of 7.61% in Oct '20 - thanks to easing of vegetable prices. WPI-based wholesale inflation rose for the fourth consecutive month to a nine months' high of 1.55%.  In Nov '20, India's exports declined 8.74% to US $23.52 Billion while imports declined 13.32% to $33.39 Billion. The trade deficit hit a 10 months' high of $9.87 Billion. During Apr-Nov '20, exports dropped 17.76% to $173.66 Billion while imports dropped 33.55% to $215.69 Billion - leaving a trade deficit of $42 Billion.BSE Sensex index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Sensex again touched new intra-day (47026) and closing (46961) hig..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Dec 11, 2020): soaring high with no bearish clouds in sight

7 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs relentlessly continued with their buying momentum during the week. They were net buyers of equity worth a huge Rs 167.21 Billion. DIIs couldn't quite match them. They were net sellers of equity worth Rs 125.35 Billion. Sensex gained 2.2% and Nifty gained 1.9% on a weekly closing basis.Automobile sales during Nov '20 were a mixed bag - showing 9% YoY growth over Nov '19 but a 14% MoM degrowth over Oct '20. Maruti, Ford, Renault, Nissan, Skoda, VW showed degrowth. M&M, Hyundai, Kia, Tata Motors, Honda, MG showed decent growth.Registering growth for the second straight month, India's IIP (Index of Industrial Production) rose to an eight months high of 3.6% in Oct '20 on the back of recovery in manufacturing, consumer goods and power sectors.  BSE Sensex index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Sensex touched new intra-day (46310) and closing (46103) highs during the week. FIIs ignored stretched index valuation, and remained huge buyers in the Indian stock ..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Dec 04, 2020): keep rising as FIIs maintain buying momentum

7 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs continued with their strong buying momentum in a holiday-shortened trading week. They were net buyers of equity worth Rs 102.1 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity worth Rs 60.9 Billion. Both Sensex and Nifty gained more than 2% on a weekly closing basis.IHS Markit India's Manufacturing PMI slipped to a 3 months low of 56.3 in Nov '20 from a 12 year high of 58.9 in Oct '20. India's Services PMI also dipped - to 53.7 in Nov '20 from 54.1 in Oct '20. (A reading above 50 indicates expansion.) The composite (Mfg. + Serv.) PMI dropped to 56.3 in Nov '20 from 58 in Oct '20.As was widely expected, RBI's Monetary Policy Committee left interest rates unchanged and maintained an 'accomodative' stance at its last policy meeting in calendar year 2020.BSE Sensex index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Sensex closed at a new high of 45080, as FIIs persisted with their strong buying momentum. The index has gained more than 19000 points (73.5%) from its Mar '20 closing low of 2..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Nov 27, 2020): soaring to new highs on a tsunami of FII liquidity inflow

8 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
A tsunami of FII liquidity inflow boosted Sensex and Nifty to new highs past 44000 and 13000 levels respectively. During Nov '20, FIIs were net buyers of equity worth Rs 653.2 Billion - their highest ever monthly net buying. DIIs were net sellers of equity worth Rs 483.2 Billion - their highest monthly net selling ever. The situation on the economic front is improving, but remains grim. India's Q2 (Jul-Sep '20) GDP contracted by a less-than-expected 7.5% following an unprecedented decline of 23.9% in Q1 (Apr-Jun '20). GDP had expanded by 5.2% in previous Q2 (Jul-Sep '19).India's fiscal deficit during Apr-Oct '20 came in at Rs 9.5 Trillion, which is almost 120% of the FY 2020-21 annual target of Rs 7.96 Trillion. The lag in revenues continues to outpace the government's efforts at expenditure compression.BSE Sensex index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Sensex touched a new intra-day high of 44825 on Wed. Nov 25, but formed a large 'reversal day' bar ..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Nov 13, 2020): in blue-sky territories after touching lifetime highs

8 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs continued with their buying spree during the week. They were net buyers of equity worth a massive Rs 198.69 Billion - far exceeding their entire net buying during Oct '20. DIIs were net sellers of equity worth Rs 135.11 Billion. Both indices gained 4.2% to touch lifetime highs.According to RBI, India's GDP may have slipped into an unprecedented recession by contracting 8.6% during Q2 (Jul-Sep '20), following a 24% contraction during Q1 (Apr-Jun '20). (Two straight quarters of GDP contraction is a thumb-rule definition of a recession.)India's Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew at 0.2% in Sep '20 after contracting for six consecutive months. IIP had contracted by 4.6% in Sep '19. However, CPI-based retail inflation rose to 7.61% in Oct '20 - its highest level since May '14 - against 7.34% in Sep '20.BSE Sensex index chart patternDuring 'muhurat' trading on Sat. Nov 14, the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex rose to touch lifetime intra-day (43830.9) and closing ..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Oct 16, 2020): pause after sharp two weeks long rallies

9 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on Thu. and Fri. (Oct 15 and 16) but were net buyers during the first three trading days of the week. Their total net buying was worth Rs 11.86 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity during the entire week. Their total net selling was worth Rs 52.17 Billion.India's Index of Industrial Production (IIP) contracted for the 6th straight month in Aug '20 to -8% against a downward revised -10.8% in Jul '20 and -15.8% in Jun '20. The contraction may continue in Sep '20.After contracting for 6 months in a row, India's merchandise exports in Sep '20 rose by 5.27% YoY to US $27.4 Billion, while imports slipped 19.6% to $30.31 Billion. The trade deficit narrowed to $2.91 Billion against $11.67 Billion in Sep '19.BSE Sensex index chart patternAfter a sharp rally from its 200 day EMA, the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex consolidated sideways just below the 41000 level during the first three trading days.On Thu. Oct 15, the index breached the 41000 level intra-day..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Sep 25, 2020): bears making their presence felt

10 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on all five trading days of the week. Their total net selling was worth a huge Rs 104.91 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon. Sep 21, but were net buyers during the next four days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 42.49 Billion.The National Council for Applied Economic Research (NCAER) has made a revised projection that India's GDP growth will contract 12.7% in Q2 (Jul-Sep '20), 8.6% in Q3 (Oct-Dec '20) and 6.2% in Q4 (Jan-Mar '21). For FY 2020-21, GDP contraction will touch 12.6%. A thumb rule definition of recession is two straight quarters of contracting GDP.BSE Sensex index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Sensex shows that bulls have stumbled at the last hurdle - a 335 points downward 'gap' formed on Feb 28 - in their efforts to propel the index to a new high.After moving well above the 'gap' to touch an intra-day high of 40010 on Aug 31, the index had formed a large 'reversal day' bar (higher high, lower close) that marked..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Sep 04, 2020): up trend lines breached but bull markets still intact

11 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on Tue, Wed. and Thu. (Sep 1, 2 and 3), but net sellers on Mon. and Fri. Their total net selling was worth Rs 38.0 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on Mon. and Thu., but net sellers on the other three days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 10.89 Billion.IHS Markit India Manufacturing PMI rose to a 6 month high of 52 in Aug '20 from 46 in Jul '20. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. Services PMI increased to 41.8 in Aug '20 from 34.2 in Jul '20, but remained in contraction zone. The Composite (Mfg. + Serv.) PMI rose to 46 in Aug '20 from 37.2 in Jul '20 - its 5th straight month of contraction.  During Apr-Jul '20, India's fiscal deficit touched Rs 8.23 Trillion - which is already 103% of the budget estimate for FY 2020-21. Total revenue receipts was Rs 2.27 Trillion, while expenses were Rs 10.5 Trillion.BSE Sensex index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Sensex shows that bulls stumbled at the very last hurdle - the 335 po..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Aug 14, 2020): bears keep bulls on a leash

11 months ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on all five trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 21.30 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on all five trading days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 44.21 Billion.India's CPI-based retail inflation rose to 6.93% in Jul '20 from 6.23% in Jun '20. CPI remained above 6% for the fourth straight month. Food inflation was 9.62%, thanks to supply disruptions. WPI-based wholesale inflation was -0.58% in Jul '20 against -1.81% in Jun '20.After a US $790 Million trade surplus in Jun '20, India's trade deficit was US $4.83 Billion in Jul '20. Exports were down 10.21% to $23.64 Billion, while imports were down 28.4% to $28.47 Billion. Trade deficit was $13.43 Billion in Jul '19.BSE Sensex index chart patternNote the following comment from last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex: "Sensex needs to convincingly move above its Jul. 29th top of 38617 for the bullish pattern of 'higher tops, higher bottoms' to continue."Despite FII ..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Jul 24, 2020): relying too much on Reliance?

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs turned bulls, and were net buyers of equity on all five trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 77.92 Billion. DIIs were net sellers on all five trading days, but couldn't keep pace with FII buying. Their total net selling was worth Rs 53.23 Billion. Sensex gained almost 3% while Nifty gained nearly 2.7% on the back of strong buying by FIIs, who seem to have taken a particular fancy for RIL despite poor Q4 performance. A slew of international investment announcements into Jio platforms has made the company 'net debt free'. A basket of penny stocks valued under Rs 5 - typically targeted by small retail investors - has outperformed the Sensex by a country mile. That is always a worrying sign for bulls. BSE Sensex index chart pattern The following comment was made in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex: "On the upside, resistance can be expected from a 640 points downward 'gap' formed on Mar 6th."The index closed higher on Mon. Jul 20th, but..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Jul 03, 2020): bulls on the verge of regaining control

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
For the second straight month, FIIs and DIIs were both net buyers of equity, which explains the strong rallies on Sensex and Nifty charts. However, the net buying reduced considerably - to Rs 54.93 Billion (Jun '20) from Rs 139.14 Billion (May '20) for FIIs; and Rs 24.34 Billion (Jun '20) from Rs 122.93 Billion (May '20) for DIIs. India's Manufacturing PMI rose sharply to 47.2 in Jun '20 from 30.8 in May '20. Services PMI improved to 33.7 in Jun '20 from 12.6 in May '20. The Composite (Mfg. + Serv.) PMI rose to 37.8 in Jun '20 from 14.8 in May '20. All the numbers were below 50 - indicating contraction.Automobile sales were disappointing in Jun '20 on a YoY basis. Maruti, Hyundai, Toyota, M&M showed 50-60% sales decline. Two-wheeler sales declined 25-35%. CV segment remained under extreme stress. Only tractor sales showed growth.BSE Sensex index chart pattern The bulls are gradually regaining control of the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex. After complete..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Jun 12, 2020): correcting after profit booking by FIIs and DIIs

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on Mon. and Tue. (Jun 8 and 9) but they turned net sellers during the next three trading days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 17.32 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on Wed. and Fri. (Jun 10 and 12), but were net sellers on the other three days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 4.0 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's industrial production in Apr '20 shrank a record 55.4%, with manufacturing crashing 64.3%. Government did not release the IIP growth number. Government withheld the CPI inflation figure for May '20 due to lack of data owing to lockdown restrictions. However, retail food inflation rose 9.28% YoY.BSE Sensex index chart pattern Note the following comment in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex: "...technical headwinds may stall the rally soon." The 'headwinds' included the downward 'gap' formed on Mar 12th, the falling 200 day EMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 35920.The downw..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (May 22, 2020): bears remain in control

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on all five trading days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 69.2 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon. and Fri. (May 18 and 22), but net buyers on the other three trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 39.38 Billion, as per provisional figures.RBI preponed the MPC meeting to reduce repo rate by 40 bps (to 4%) in a bid to inject more liquidity into the monetary system, after the market was disappointed by PM's Rs 20 Trillion 'stimulus' announcement. Rising food inflation and looming recession can lead to stagflation.  India's crude oil imports in Apr '20 fell 12.4% YoY to 17.28 million tonnes, thanks to low demand during the corona virus lockdown. Oil product imports dropped 6.5% to 3.35 million tonnes. However, refined products exports rose 37% YoY to 6.04 million tonnes. BSE Sensex index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Sensex fell sharply on Mon. May 18 and slipped below the psychological 30000 level int..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Apr 30, 2020): breakout above rising wedge patterns

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
In a holiday-shortened week, FIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon. and Tue. (Apr 27 and 28) but net buyers on the next two days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 16.52 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on all four trading days, worth Rs 28.96 Billion, as per provisional figures.Interestingly, during Apr '20, FIIs and DIIs were both net sellers of equity - worth Rs 52.1 Billion and Rs 1.2 Billion respectively. Wonder who bought during the sharp month-long counter-trend rally! India's core sector output contracted 6.5% in Mar '20 - its worst performance in nearly 15 years - against growth of 7.2% in Feb '20. During FY 2019-20, infrastructure industries grew just 0.6% against 4.4% during FY 2018-19. Top automobile makers like Maruti, M&M, Hyundai, Toyota, MG, Royal Enfield reported nil domestic sales during Apr '20, as their operations remained suspended due to the lockdown since Mar 25th to prevent the spread of the corona virus.BSE Sensex index chart patternTh..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Apr 09, 2020): FII buying triggers counter-trend rallies

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
In a holiday-shortened week, FIIs were net buyers of equity on all three trading days - worth Rs 44.2 Billion. (The last time they were net buyers three days in a row was back in the 3rd week of Dec '19.) DIIs were net buyers of equity on Tue. Apr 7, but net sellers on Wed. and Thu. (Apr 8 and 9). Their net selling was worth Rs 18.0 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's Manufacturing Purchase Manager's Index (PMI) declined to a 4 month low of 51.8 in Mar '20 from 54.5 in Feb '20. Services PMI contracted to 49.3 in Mar '20 from 57.5 in Feb '20. The Composite (Manufacturing + Services) PMI fell to 50.6 in Mar '20 from 57.6 in Feb '20. (A figure above 50 indicates expansion.)India's Index of Industrial Production (IIP) rose to a 7 month high of 4.5% in Feb '20 against 0.2% in Feb '19 due to pickup in mining and electricity output. During Apr '19-Feb '20, cumulative IIP was only 0.9% against 4% in the Apr '18-Feb '19 period.  BSE Sensex index chart patternThe dail..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Mar 20, 2020): in strong bear grips

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on all five trading days. Their total net selling was worth a whopping Rs 209.09 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on all five days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 164.72 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's WPI-based inflation softened to 2.26% in Feb '20 from 3.1% in Jan '20 and 2.93% in Feb '19 - thanks to cheaper food and vegetables prices. On Friday, Mar 20, SEBI announced a few steps to ease market volatility by limiting short positions in F&O segment, increasing margins on non-F&O stocks and revising marketwide positions limits for stock derivative contracts. (These measures will come into effect from Mon. Mar 23.)BSE Sensex index chart patternNote the following comment from last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex:"Since 'panic bottoms' seldom hold, expect Friday's intra-day low of 29389 will be tested and breached."It came as no surprise that the index closed..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Feb 28, 2020): bears take charge

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on all five trading days of the week. Their total net selling was worth a huge Rs 113.69 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on all five days. Their total net buying was worth a massive Rs 159.86 Billion, as per provisional figures - thanks to a big bulk deal on Adani Gas on Fri. Feb 28. India's fiscal deficit for the Apr '19 to Jan '20 period touched Rs 9.86 Trillion, which was 128.5% of the revised deficit target of Rs 7.67 Trillion for FY 2019-20. Expenditure stood at Rs 22.68 Trillion (84.1%) while revenue receipts were Rs 12.82 Trillion.India's GDP growth during Q3 (Oct-Dec '19) slipped to a nearly 7 year low of 4.7% on a YoY basis due to contraction in manufacturing output. However, on a QoQ basis, there was a slight improvement from Q2 (Jul-Sep '19) figure of 4.5%.  BSE Sensex index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Sensex clearly shows bear domination during the week. After breaking down below..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Feb 14, 2020): consolidating below lifetime highs

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on Wed. and Thu. (Feb 12 and 13) but net sellers on Mon., Tue. and Fri. (Feb 10, 11 and 14). Their total net buying was worth Rs 0.11 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon. and Thu., but net buyers on the other three days of the week. Their total net selling was worth Rs 7.93 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's CPI-based retail inflation moved up to 7.59% in Jan '20 from 7.35% in Dec '19. WPI-based wholesale inflation also rose to 3.1% in Jan '20 from 2.59% in Dec '19. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) contracted 0.3% in Dec '19 against a growth of 1.8% in Nov '19. Exports fell 1.66% to US $25.97 Billion while imports slipped 0.75% to $41.14 Billion in Jan '20. The trade deficit widened to a 7 months high of $15.17 Billion. A combination of rising inflation, widening trade deficit and contracting production does not augur well for India's economic growth.BSE Sensex index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Sensex..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Jan 17, 2020): touch new highs again

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on Mon., Wed. and Fri. (Jan 13, 15 and 17), but were net sellers on Tue. and Thu. (Jan 14 and 16). Their total net buying was worth only Rs 0.64 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on all five trading days of the week. Their total net selling was worth Rs 31.0 Billion - as per provisional figures.India's exports fell by 1.8% in Dec '19 to US $27.36 Billion against $27.86 Billion in Dec '18. Imports fell by 8.8% in Dec '19 to $38.61 Billion against $42.35 Billion in Dec '18.Sugar mills in the country produced 10.9 Million tonnes of sugar till Jan 15th, nearly 26% lower than the 14.7 Million tonnes produced in the same period in the previous year. Production in Maharashtra and Karnataka was affected by rains.BSE Sensex index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Sensex breached the psychological 42000 level intra-day on Thu. and Fri. (Jan 16 and 17) - touching a new high of 42064 on Fri. - but failed to close above the 42000 level.Daily..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Jan 03, 2020): consolidating sideways after touching lifetime highs

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon., Tue. and Wed. (Dec 30, 31 and Jan 1) but net buyers on Thu. and Fri. (Jan 2 and 3). Their total net buying was worth Rs 5.0 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on Fri., but were net buyers during the other four days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 0.3 Billion - as per provisional figures.Most of the automobile manufacturers - like Hyundai, Honda, Nissan, Toyota, Tata Motors - posted negative growth in sales in Dec '19. However, Maruti and M&M showed marginal positive growth - thanks to heavy discounts and a lower base effect. Two wheeler makers like Hero Moto, Bajaj Auto, TVS Motors and Royal Enfield also posted negative sales growth.Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India during Apr-Sep '19 grew 15% to US $26 Billion against $22.7 Billion during Apr-Sep '18. Sectors which attracted maximum inflows included services, computer hardware and software, telecommunications and automobiles. BSE Sensex index chart pattern..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Dec 20, 2019): at new lifetime highs

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on all five trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 48.9 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on all five trading days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 37.5 Billion - as per provisional figures.According to a CARE Ratings report, production of consumer non-durables (i.e. FMCG products) moderated to 4% in FY 2018-19 from 10.5% growth in FY 2017-18 due to a sluggish economy and limited growth in employment. However, 14 items among the 36 taken into consideration showed increase in growth.Fitch Ratings have cut India's GDP growth forecast to 4.6% for FY 2019-20 from the previous estimate of 5.6% due to significant growth deceleration in the past few quarters - thanks to credit squeeze and deterioration in business and consumer confidence.BSE Sensex index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Sensex rose to touch new intra-day (41810) and closing (41682) highs during the week on the back of strong buying in equities by FIIs. The ..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Dec 11, 2019)

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on Mon. and Wed. (Nov 9 and 11), but were net sellers on Tue. (Nov 10). Their total net buying was worth Rs 7.0 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on all three trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 6.5 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's electricity demand fell 4.3% to 94.6 Billion units in Nov '19 against 98.84 Billion units in Nov '18. It was the fourth straight month of power demand decline, as per CEA. Power demand had declined 13.2% YoY in Oct '19 - the steepest monthly decline in more than 12 years, reflecting a deepening growth slowdown.ADB has slashed India's GDP growth forecast to 5.1% in FY 2019-20 from 6.5% that was forecast earlier. For FY 2020-21, GDP growth forecast has been cut to 6.5% from 7.2% on the back of risk aversion, credit crunch, slumping consumption and rural distress.The daily bar chart pattern of Nifty has been correcting after touching a new high of 12158.80 on Nov 28 and penetrating the upper Bollinge..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Nov 29, 2019): at lifetime highs

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity for the second month in a row during Nov '19. Their total net buying was worth Rs 129.2 Billion - their highest monthly net buying since Apr '19. DIIs were net sellers of equity during Nov '19. Their total net selling was worth Rs 79.7 Billion - their highest monthly net selling since Apr '19.India's GDP grew 4.5% during Q2 (Sep '19) against 7% during Q2 (Sep '18) - its slowest growth rate in more than 6 years - due to degrowth in manufacturing and a drop in exports. GDP grew 4.8% in H1 (Sep '19) against 7.5% in H1 (Sep '18). India's fiscal deficit during Apr-Oct '19 was Rs 7.2 Trillion, which is 102.4% of the budgeted target of Rs 7.03 Trillion for FY 2019-20. Net tax receipts during Apr-Oct '19 was Rs 6.83 Trillion while total expenditure was Rs 16.55 Trillion.BSE Sensex index chart patternAfter an upward breakout above the 39450 level on Oct 29, the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex entered a period of sideways consolidation within a 're..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Nov 15, 2019): consolidating near lifetime highs

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
In a holiday-curtailed trading week, FIIs were net buyers of equity on Mon. and Wed. (Nov 11 and 13), but were net sellers during Thu. and Fri. (Nov 14 and 15). Their total net selling was worth Rs 3.2 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon. and Wed., but were net buyers on the last two days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 5.1 Billion.The macroeconomic indicators are hinting at deeper trouble. IIP contracted 4.3% in Sep '19 to its lowest level in 8 years. CPI inflation rose 4.62% in Oct '19 - to a 16 months high. WPI inflation eased to 0.16% in Oct '19 - to a 3 years low due to a fall in prices of fuel, power and manufactured goods.Exports contracted 1.11% to US $26.38 Billion in Oct '19, while imports fell 16.31% to $37.39 Billion, leaving a lower trade deficit of $11 Billion against $18 Billion in Oct '18. Consumer spending fell for the first time in 4 decades in FY 2017-18 - driven by slack rural demand - according to a survey by NSO, which the government ha..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Nov 01, 2019): bullishness triggered by hopes of more reforms

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
For the month of Oct '19, FIIs were net buyers of equity after five straight months of net selling. Their total net buying was worth Rs 85.9 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity for the sixth month in a row. Their total net buying was worth Rs 47.6 Billion.Confluence of major festivals and big discounts failed to bring much cheer to auto makers during Oct '19. Maruti and Volkswagen showed marginal sales growth over Oct '18. Renault showed good gains. Hyundai and Toyota showed single-digit de-growth. The rest - cars, 2-wheelers, CVs - showed double-digit de-growth.IHS Markit India's Manufacturing PMI slipped to a 2-year low of 50.6 in Oct '19 from 51.4 in Sep '19. (A number above 50 indicates expansion.) GST collection in Oct '19 was Rs 954 Billion, which was 3.8% higher than Sep '19 figure of Rs 919 Billion but 5.3% lower than Rs 1.01 Trillion collected in Oct '18.As per CMIE, India's unemployment rate in Oct '19 climbed to 8.5% - the highest since Aug '16 - from..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Oct 16, 2019)

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on all three trading days this week. Their total net buying was worth Rs 20.2 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon. Oct 14, but were net buyers on the next two trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 20.8 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's CPI-based inflation in Sep '19 climbed to a 14 months high of 3.99% against 3.28% in Aug '19 and 3.70% in Sep '18 due to costlier vegetables and pulses. However, WPI-based  inflation dropped to 0.33% in Sep '19 against 1.08% in Aug '19.India's trade deficit fell to a 7 months low of US $10.86 Billion in Sep '19, as exports contracted 6.57% to US $26.03 Billion, while imports dropped to a 3 year low of US $36.89 Billion - indicating weak demand in a slowing economy.The daily bar chart pattern of Nifty has been rallying on the back of FII buying during the past four trading sessions. The index has closed above its three EMAs in bull territory.Further upside is likely, but the (..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Sep 27, 2019): consolidating after sharp short-covering rallies

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on Mon. and Thu. (Sep 23 and 26), but were net sellers on Tue., Wed. and Fri. (Sep. 24, 25 and 27). Their total net buying was worth Rs 20.4 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on Wed., but were net buyers during the other four days of the week. Their total net buying was worth Rs 8.0 Billion, as per provisional figures.As on Sep 26, countrywide rainfall figure is 107% of its long period average, as per the India Meteorological Dept. With more than 2 weeks to go before monsoon recedes, the figure could touch 110% (putting it in the 'excess' category after staying 'below normal' for five straight years).According to a recent UNCTAD report, India's GDP growth will moderate to 6% in 2019 from 7.4% in 2018 due to lower than targetted tax collections and limited public spending.BSE Sensex index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Sensex formed a 300 points upward 'gap' on Mon. Sep 23 and touched an intra-day high of 39441...
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Sep 18, 2019)

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on all three trading days this week. Their total net selling was worth Rs 25.2 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on all three trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 11.7 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's WPI-based inflation was 1.08% in Aug '19 - the same as in Jul '19 but much lower than 4.62% in Aug '18. Rise in inflation of food items was balanced by deflation in fuel and power.The Finance Ministry is considering a fourth 'booster' dose to revive a sliding economy, after the first three 'booster' doses failed to generate any significant revival in 'animal spirits'. For the past seven weeks, the daily bar chart pattern of Nifty has been consolidating sideways with a slight downward bias, touching progressively lower tops. The 'death cross' (marked by grey oval) of the 50 day EMA below the 200 day EMA at the beginning of the month had technically confirmed a bear market. Bulls are fighting ha..
                 

Nifty chart: a long-term outlook

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
After Monday's holiday, FIIs were net sellers of equity on both trading days this week. Their total net selling was worth Rs 37.5 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on both trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 25.6 Billion, as per provisional figures.The IHS Markit India Manufacturing PMI slipped to a 15 month low of 51.4 in Aug '19 from 52.5 in Jul '19, but remained above 50 indicating growth. The Services PMI also declined to 52.4 in Aug '19 from 53.8 in Jul '19. The Composite (Manufacturing + Services) PMI moved down to 52.6 in Aug '19 from 53.9 in Jul '19.GST collection in Aug '19 slipped to Rs 98.2 Billion from Rs 1.02 Trillion in Jul '19, but was 4.5% higher than Rs 93.9 Billion collected in Aug '18.The weekly line chart of Nifty has breached two up trend lines drawn from the Feb '16 low (also called Fan Lines - marked FL1 and FL2). This is a sign that the long-term up trend is getting weak, but is not yet over.As per Corrective Fan Principle, downward breach of..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Aug 23, 2019): ready for a technical bounce

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on Tue. (Aug 20), but were net sellers on the other days of the week. Their total net selling was worth Rs 33.4 Billion. DIIs were net buyers on all five trading days of the week. Their total net buying was worth Rs 43.0 Billion, as per provisional figures.Finance Minister announced a 'package' that comprised a restatement of a few budget proposals; withdrawal of (a) controversial tax surcharge on some categories of FIIs and (b) 'punishment' for not meeting CSR obligations; postponement of (a) higher registration fees for cars, (b) phasing out of BS IV vehicles and (c) introduction of EVs; removal of ban on govt. vehicle purchase and increased depreciation on vehicles purchased till Mar 2020. BSE Sensex index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Sensex broke out below a 'rising wedge' pattern on Wed. Aug 21. The possibility was mentioned in last week's post. The next day, the index dropped deeper inside the 'support zone' (betwe..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Aug 09, 2019): bulls fight back on rumours of re-look at tax proposals

one year ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity during the first four days of the week, but were net buyers on Fri. Aug 9. Their total net selling was worth Rs 47.4 Billion. DIIs were net buyers on all five days of the week. Their total net buying was worth Rs 55.9 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's Index of Industrial Production (IIP) slipped to a low of 2% in Jun '19, against 4.6% in May '19 and 7% in Jun '18. For the Apr-Jun '19 period, IIP grew 3.6% against 5.1% during Apr-Jun '18.Instead of taking swift steps to address the serious downturn in the economy, the government has chosen to divert attention by muscle-flexing in Kashmir - a strategy that paid rich dividends before the Lok Sabha elections.BSE Sensex index chart patternOversold technical indicators triggered a technical bounce on the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex. The possibility was mentioned in last week's post.After an intra-day breach of the lower (falling) trend line of a 'broadening top' pattern on Mon. A..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Jul 31, 2019)

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
Except Jul 1, FIIs have been net sellers every single day during Jul '19. Their total net selling of equity during the month was worth Rs 198.70 Billion. Except Jul 1, DIIs have been net buyers every single day during Jul '19. Their total net buying of equity during the month was worth Rs 203.90 Billion, as per provisional figures. The government's fiscal deficit during Apr-Jun '19 touched Rs 4.32 Trillion, which is 61.4% of the budget estimate of Rs 7.03 Trillion for FY 2019-20. During Apr-Jun '18, the fiscal deficit was 68.7% of the budget estimate. Revenue receipts during Apr-Jun '19 was 14.4% of the budget estimate against 15.5% during Apr-Jun '18.The sad episode of the Cafe Coffee Day founder has been a blow to the coffee sector, and brought 'ease of doing business' - or the lack of it - to the fore. Entrepreneurs take huge risks to set up businesses, and provide jobs to many, but tax terrorism can push the honest ones over the edge. The dishones..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Jul 26, 2019): bears trying to take control

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were heavy net sellers of equity during the week. Their total net selling was worth Rs 75.5 Billion. DIIs more than matched FII selling. Their total net buying was worth Rs 89.1 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's rice exports are likely to fall to the lowest level in 7 years due to weak demand from African countries and absence of government incentives.Despite the continuing slowdown in the real estate sector - thanks to various regulatory changes - the industry attracted investments of US $2.7 Billion during the first half of 2019.BSE Sensex index chart patternThe following comment appeared in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex: "A confluence of supports - from the lower edge of GAP2, the blue up trend line and the 200 day EMA - should protect Sensex downside in the near term." The confluence of supports is marked by purple oval on the chart. Sensex breached the lower edge of GAP2 and the blue uptrend line, but fo..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Jul 19, 2019): bears succeed in stalling the bull charges

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternOverbought technical indicators had led to the following comment in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500: "Some consolidation or correction is possible."The index touched a new high of 3018 on Mon. Jul 15, but succumbed to profit booking and dropped to test support from its 20 day EMA. The index formed a 'reversal day' bar (lower low, higher close) on Thu. Jul 18, just as it had done on Tue. Jul 9, but failed to rally - losing 37 points (1.2%) on a weekly closing basis.The index is trading above its three rising EMAs in a bull market. However, Friday's 'reversal day' bar (higher high, lower close) and strong volumes on last week's three down days show that bears are still alive and kicking.Daily technical indicators are looking bearish. MACD crossed below its signal line and dropped from its overbought zone. RSI and Slow stochastic are falling towards their respective 50% levels. Another test of support from t..
                 

WTI and Brent Crude Oil charts: bears trying to make life difficult for bulls

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
WTI Crude Oil chartThe following comment was made in the previous post on the daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil: "Falling volumes during the technical bounce may encourage bears to defend the 200 day EMA vigorously."Oil's price dropped below its 50 day and 20 day EMAs, but bounced up after receiving support from the 56 level. After crossing above all three EMAs into bull territory, oil's price formed a small 'reversal day' bar (higher high, lower close) and pulled back to its 200 day EMA.Daily technical indicators are in bullish zones. MACD is rising above its signal line. RSI is above its 50% level but showing slight downward momentum. Slow stochastic re-entered its overbought zone, but is slipping down. Bears are giving ground grudgingly. Oil's price has formed a bullish pattern of 'higher tops, higher bottoms' after forming a 'double bottom' reversal pattern inside the support zone between 50 and 52. A convincing price move above 67 is necessary ..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Jul 10, 2019)

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity during the first three trading days of the week. Their total net selling was worth Rs 16.8 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on all three days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 17.0 Billion, as per provisional figures.The Finance Minister defended her decision to impose higher Income Tax surcharge on incomes above Rs 20 Million and Rs 50 Million per year that will affect about 40% of FIIs who do not have a corporate structure.The Union Cabinet seeks to approve a bill that seeks to merge 13 central labour laws into a single code that would apply to all establishments employing 10 or more workers.The following comments appeared in last week's technical update on the daily bar chart pattern of Nifty: "The 165 points upward 'gap' (formed on May 20) has remained unfilled. At some point, the index is likely to fall to partly or completely fill the 'gap'." The budget on Jul 5 provided just the opportunity for bears to fill the 'gap'..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Jul 05, 2019): correcting due to budget disappointment

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on Mon. Jul 1, but turned net sellers during the next four days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 5.9 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon., but net buyers during the next four days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 7.1 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's Services PMI contracted for the first time since May '18, slipping to 49.6 in Jun '19 from 50.2 in May '19 due to stagnant sales and unfavourable taxation. (A number below 50 indicates contraction.) The Composite (Manufacturing + Services) PMI dropped to 50.8 in Jun '19 from 51.7 in May '19.According to analysts, revenue mobilisation may be the single biggest impediment in the investment and consumption oriented budget tabled by the Finance Minister in Parliament on Fri. Jul 5. It will be difficult to meet the fiscal deficit target (3.3% of GDP).BSE Sensex index chart patternA pre-budget rally in the stock market led to the formation of a bearish 'rising wedge' pattern..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Jun 28, 2019): bulls pause before attempting to move the indices higher

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternThe following remark appeared in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of SPX 500: "Expect bears to put up a fight to defend the 2954 level. But it might be a 'fight for a cause long ago forgotten'."Bears did put up a good fight, as the index closed lower during the first three trading days of the week, touching a low of 2913 on Wed. Jun 26. However, bulls fought back. The index lost just 9 points on a weekly closing basis.Daily technical indicators are in bullish zones, but only RSI is showing some upward momentum. MACD is above its rising signal line. RSI has moved up after a dip towards its 50% level. Slow stochastic has dropped sharply from its overbought zone. All three EMAs are rising, and the index is trading above them in a bull market. It is just a matter of time before bulls overcome bear resistance at the 2954 level.On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index closed we..
                 

Gold and Silver charts: rallying after upward breakouts

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
Gold chart patternThe following remark was made in the previous post on the daily bar chart pattern of Gold: "Gold's price may consolidate or correct towards 1310-1320 zone before it can resume its up move."On Jun 11, gold's price touched a low of 1319, but formed a 'reversal day' bar (lower low, higher close) that led to a strong rally. After a brief hesitation around 1345 - which happens to be the level of the 'rim' of the 'cup and handle' pattern - gold's price shot up like a rocket past 1400.Daily technical indicators are looking quite overbought. MACD has risen sharply inside its overbought zone. RSI is rising inside its overbought zone. Slow stochastic is also rising inside its overbought zone, but showing negative divergence by touching a lower top.Gold's price is trading well above its three rising EMAs in a bull market. However, the rally has been a bit too steep. Some profit booking is likely to emerge soon. The US Dollar index dropped vertically below 95.50 on..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Jun 19, 2019)

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on Tue. (Jun 18), but were net sellers on Mon. and Wed. (Jun 17 and 19). Their total net selling was worth about Rs 4 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on Wed., but were net buyers on Mon. and Tue. Their total net buying was worth Rs 13.3 Billion, as per provisional figures.According to data compiled by Bloomberg, India's non-bank finance companies (NBFCs) have a record Rs 1.1 Trillion of local currency bonds due next quarter. Refinancing the obligations may pose a challenge.India recorded FDI inflow of US $61 Billion during FY 2017-18 against $60.2 Billion in FY 2016-17, according to the Ministry of Commerce & Industry.Note the following comments from last week's technical update on the daily bar chart pattern of Nifty: "Charts don't 'like' unfilled gaps. Most gaps get filled sooner than later - though some gaps may never get filled. A part or complete filling of the May 20 'gap' will make the chart technically 'healthy', enabli..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Jun 14, 2019): profit booking emerges near lifetime highs

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on Mon., Tue. and Thu. (Jun 10, 11 and 13), but net sellers on Wed. and Fri. (Jun 12 and 14). Their total net selling exceeded Rs 8.0 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on Mon., Wed. and Fri., but net sellers on the other two days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 2.2 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's CPI based retail inflation rose to a 7 months high of 3.05% in May '19 from a revised 2.99% in Apr '19. However, WPI based wholesale inflation fell to a 22 months low of 2.45% in May '19 from 3.07% in Apr '19. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew to a six months high of 3.4% in Apr '19 against 0.4% in Mar '19, but was lower than 4.5% in Apr '18. Some experts have questioned the veracity and sustainability of the improved Apr '19 data.India's trade deficit widened to US $15.4 Billion in May '19 against $14.6 Billion in May '18. While exports grew 4% to $30 Billion, imports grew 4.3% to 45.4 Billion.BSE Sense..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Jun 07, 2019): short covering triggers pullback rallies

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternNote the following comment from last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500: "Some more correction, and a drop towards the support zone between 2700-2725 is likely."The index corrected further below its 200 day EMA on Mon. Jun 3, but received good support from the zone between 2700-2725. A 'V' shaped technical bounce propelled the index above its 20 day and 50 day EMAs back into bull territory by Thu. Jun 6.On Fri. Jun 7, the index breached the (purple) down trend line after spending 5 weeks below it, and closed with a 121 points (4.4%) weekly gain. The week's rally was accompanied by sliding volumes. A pullback towards the down trend line is a possibility. Daily technical indicators are looking bullish, and showing upward momentum. MACD has crossed above its signal line in bearish zone. RSI has moved above its 50% level after bouncing up from the edge of its oversold zone. Slow stochastic is rising sharply towards i..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (May 31, 2019): bears regaining control

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternThe following remark appeared in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500: "As long as the index trades above its 200 day EMA, bulls need not worry too much."It is time for bulls to start worrying. The index successfully tested support from its 200 day EMA on May 29 and 30, but the support was breached on Fri. May 31. The index formed a small (8 points) downward 'gap' below its 200 day EMA, and closed in bear territory for the first time in four months.  Support at the 2750 level may not hold for long, as strong volumes on recent down days indicate bears are regaining control. Daily technical indicators are in bearish zones, and showing downward momentum. MACD is falling below its signal line. RSI has dropped down to the edge of its oversold zone. Slow stochastic sliding deeper inside its oversold zone. Some more correction, and a drop towards the support zone between 2700-2725 is likely. ..
                 

Gold and Silver charts: bears remain on top

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
Gold chart patternThe following remark appeared in the previous post on the daily bar chart pattern of Gold: "Slow stochastic has entered its overbought zone, and can trigger a pullback towards the top of the 'wedge'."The expected pullback turned into a correction. Gold's price dropped back inside the 'falling wedge' (which is the 'handle' of a large 'cup and handle') pattern, and fell below its three EMAs into bear territory.After touching a low of 1269 on May 21, Gold's price bounced up to close above its 200 day EMA - keeping bullish hopes alive. Recent volume spikes on up days indicate buying interest.Daily technical indicators are looking neutral to bearish. MACD is facing resistance from its signal line in bearish zone. RSI is facing resistance from its 50% level. Slow stochastic has bounced up from the edge of its oversold zone. Gold's price may make another attempt to break out above the 'wedge'.After touching a high of 98.26 on May 23 - its highest level in..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (May 22, 2019)

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs turned net buyers of equity on Mon. and Tue. (May 20 and 21), but were net sellers today. Their total net buying was worth Rs 19.5 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on all three trading days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 17.9 Billion, as per provisional figures.According to the World Economic Situations and Prospects (WESP) 2019 Mid-Year Update released by the United Nations, strong domestic consumption and investment will continue to support India's GDP growth, which is projected at 7% in 2019 and 7.1% in 2020.The debt crisis in IL&FS translated into higher borrowing costs and reduced market access for other NBFCs, adversely impacting the growth of the NBFC sector - as per a report by Fitch Ratings.Exit polls predicting a comfortable victory for the NDA in the recent general elections encouraged FIIs to go on a buying spree. The daily bar chart pattern of Nifty formed a 165 points upward 'gap' on Mon. May 20, and closed above 11800 for the first time ever.FII b..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (May 17, 2019): pullbacks after downward breakouts from 'diamond' patterns

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on all five trading days. Their total net selling exceeded Rs 62.2 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on all five trading days, and more than matched the pace of FII selling. Their total net buying was worth Rs 67.3 Billion, as per provisional figures.In Apr 2019, India's trade deficit widened to a five months high of US $15.33 Billion, compared to $10.9 Billion in Mar '19 and $13.72 Billion in Apr '18.Merchandise export in Apr '19 grew 0.64% (a four months low) to $26.07 Billion - down sharply from $32.6 Billion in Mar '19. Imports increased 4.48% (a six months high) to $41.4 Billion - on the back of higher oil and gold imports.BSE Sensex index chart patternThe following comments were made in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex: "Sensex is just above a strong support zone, from where a technical bounce can be expected."On Mon. May 13, the index dropped down to completely fill the 125 points 'gap' formed on Mar 12. During the n..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (May 10, 2019): bears use US-China trade war as excuse to strike hard

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500 dropped below the 'rising wedge' and its 20 day EMA intra-day on Mon. May 6, but pulled back to close just inside the 'wedge' by the end of the day.Bears took control on Tue. May 7. The index dropped sharply below its 20 day EMA and closed below it, but received good support from its 50 day EMA. The next day, the index traded below its 20 day EMA but above its 50 day EMA.An intra-day fall below the 50 day EMA on Thu. May 9 was followed by a pullback and close above it. On Fri. May 10, the index formed an 'outside day' candlestick pattern (lower low, higher high), but failed to close above its falling 20 day EMA - losing 2.2% on a weekly closing basis.Daily technical indicators are looking bearish. MACD is falling below its signal line in bullish zone. RSI is trying to recover after falling below its 50% level. Slow stochastic has bounced up a bit from the edge of its oversold zone. Friday..
                 

WTI and Brent Crude Oil charts: in bull markets, but facing bear resistances

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
WTI Crude Oil chartAfter a bit of sideways consolidation near the upper edge of the 'support-resistance zone' (between 62 and 64), the daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil bounced up to touch a high of 66.60 on Apr 23 - its highest level in nearly 6 months.The 'golden cross' of the 50 day EMA above the 200 day EMA technically confirmed a return to a bull market. However, overbought technical indicators, which showed negative divergences by touching lower tops, triggered a correction.Oil's price dropped below the 'support-resistance zone' and its 20 day and 50 day EMAs, but bounced up after testing support from its 200 day EMA. Formation of a 'reversal day' bar (lower low, higher close) and a pullback inside the 'support-resistance zone' ought to encourage bulls.Daily technical indicators are looking bearish after correcting overbought conditions. MACD is falling below its signal towards neutral zone. RSI has dropped below its 50% level. Slow stochastic has falle..
                 

Gold and Silver charts: bears back on top

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
Gold chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Gold appears to have formed a bearish pattern of 'lower tops, lower bottoms' during the past two months. However, bulls need not lose heart just yet.Why? A couple of technical reasons: (1) Gold's chart indicates formation of a large 'cup and handle' pattern - with a possible upward breakout above 1350; (2) The past 2 months' trading has formed the 'handle', which itself is looking like a 'falling wedge' from which the likely breakout is upwards.There is an important caveat. Gold's price had dropped below its 200 day EMA into bear territory, and touched a low of 1266 on Apr 23 before recovering a bit. A fall below 1260 - which is at the mid-point of the 'cup' - can negate the 'cup and handle' pattern.Daily technical indicators are looking bearish. MACD is facing resistance from its falling signal line in bearish zone. RSI is below its 50% level. Slow stochastic has emerged from its oversold zone, but its upward momentum has stal..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Apr 24, 2019)

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on Mon. and Wed. (Apr 22 and 24), but net sellers on Tue. Their total net buying was worth Rs 8.1 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon. and Wed. but net buyers on Tue. (Apr 23). Their total net selling was worth Rs 5.3 Billion, as per provisional figures.A key indicator of consumer demand, viz. auto sales, has been hit by relatively tight financial conditions, as banks have been reluctant to pass along interest rate cuts. Despite a spurt in Mar '19, India's exports remain at risk due to a slowing global economy and US-China trade war.According to rating agency ICRA, the domestic micro finance industry is on the path of recovery, and is likely to see a growth of 20-22% in FY 2019-20.The daily bar chart pattern of Nifty appears to have formed a large 'rising wedge' pattern from Feb '19 onwards. Such a pattern has bearish implications. So, it came as no surprise when a downward breakout occurred on Mon. Apr 22.The index fo..
                 

WTI and Brent Crude Oil charts: rallies stall temporarily at resistance zones

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
WTI Crude Oil chartNote the following comments from the previous post on the daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil: "The zone between 62 and 64 had acted as a support zone during Apr-Aug '18. It is likely to act as a resistance zone for a while."Oil's price managed to move above the resistance zone, and closed above the 64 level on Apr 8 and 10. Sliding volumes showed lack of follow-up buying. Oil's price has drifted down inside the resistance zone (between 60-62).The impending 'golden cross' of the 50 day EMA above the 200 day EMA will technically confirm a return to a bull market. Expect oil's price to move higher after a bit of consolidation or correction.Daily technical indicators are correcting overbought conditions. MACD is about to cross below its rising signal line in overbought zone. RSI has dropped from its overbought zone. Slow stochastic has fallen to the edge of its overbought zone. On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price closed abo..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Apr 10, 2019)

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on all three trading days this week. Their total net buying was worth Rs 29.7 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon. and Tue. (Apr 8 and 9) but net buyers today. Their total net selling was worth Rs 8.5 Billion, as per provisional figures.Fall in auto sales, shortfall in direct tax collection and household savings, 7% contraction in FDI during Apr-Dec '18 are all pointing to a slow down in the Indian economy. According to the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO), rising protectionism, fluctuating commodity prices, inadequate availability of liquidity and slowdown in global trade will be major challenges faced by exporters.Note the following comment from last week's technical update on the daily bar chart pattern of Nifty: "The last ten trading sessions have formed a bearish 'rising wedge' pattern, from which a downward breakout can be expected."As expected, a breakout below the 'wedge' occurred on T..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Apr 05, 2019): brief retreats after touching new highs

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on Mon., Tue. and Fri. (Apr 1, 2 and 5) but were net sellers on Wed. and Thu. (Apr 3 and 4). Their total net buying was worth Rs 9.7 Billion during the week. DIIs were net buyers of equity on Thu. but net sellers on the other four days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 6.7 Billion, as per provisional figures.Nikkei India's Services PMI slipped to 52.0 in Mar '19 from 52.5 in Feb '19. It was the slowest growth (a number above 50 indicates growth) since Sep '18. The Composite PMI (Manufacturing + Services) fell to 52.7 in Mar '19 from 53.8 in Feb '19.After cutting repo and reverse repo rates by 25 bps (0.25%) - acknowledging a slowdown in India's growth momentum - RBI has lowered the GDP growth forecast for FY 2019-20 to 7.2% from the earlier estimate of 7.4%.BSE Sensex index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Sensex rose to touch a new lifetime high of 39270 on Wed. Apr 3 but formed a 'reversal day' bar ..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Mar 29, 2019): gradually overcoming strong bear resistances

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternThe 'V' shaped recovery rally on the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500 continues to face resistance from bears. Bulls have managed to overcome the resistance zone between 2800-2825 after five weeks of struggle.The next resistance zone between 2850-2875 is looming above. A convincing move above 2875 will clear the path for the index to touch a new high. Bears may continue to yield ground grudgingly.Daily technical indicators are in bullish zones after correcting overbought conditions, but are not showing much upward momentum. MACD is below its sliding signal line. RSI has bounced up from neutral zone. Slow stochastic is moving sideways after falling from its overbought zone. Negative divergences on all three indicators - which failed to touch new highs with the index - triggered a correction below the rising 20 day EMA.On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index closed above its three weekly EMAs in a long-ter..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Mar 22, 2019): hit pause buttons after month-long rallies

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on all four trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 71.0 Billion during the week. DIIs were net sellers on all four trading days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 45.2 Billion, as per provisional figures.According to IMF, India has been one of the fastest growing large economies in the world. Though important reforms have been implemented, more reforms are needed to sustain the growth rate.Fitch Ratings have cut India's GDP growth forecast for FY 2019-20 to 6.8% from its previous estimate of 7% due to weaker-than-expected momentum in the economy.BSE Sensex index chart patternIn a 'Holi'day-shortened trading week, the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex continued its upward climb on the back of strong buying by FIIs. The index made back-to-back attempts (on Wed. Mar 20 and Fri. Mar 22) to breakout above the upward-sloping channel, but failed.On Friday, the index touched an intra-day high of 38565 - its highest level in more than ..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Mar 15, 2019): flood of FII money washes away all resistances

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs are on a buying spree. Their total net buying was worth a massive Rs 148.2 Billion during the week. DIIs were net sellers on all five trading days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 74.0 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's WPI based inflation rose to 2.93% in Feb '19 from 2.76% in Jan '19, due to rise in food prices. WPI based inflation was 2.74% in Feb '18.India's trade deficit narrowed to US $9.6 Billion in Feb '19 from US $14.73 Billion in Jan '19. Merchandise exports grew 2.44% YoY to US $26.67 Billion while imports were down 5.41% to US $36.26 Billion.BSE Sensex index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Sensex broke out above the Fibonacci resistance zone (refer last week's post) on Mon. Mar 11, and continued to soar higher as a flood of FII inflow fuelled a sharp rally.The entire trading since the low of 33292 touched on Oct 26 '18 has formed a wide upward-sloping channel. The index faced resistance from the upper edge of the channel on..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Mar 08, 2019): pullback rallies stall at resistance levels

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternThe following comment appeared in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500: "...the index closed above its three weekly EMAs in a long-term bull market for the fifth week in a row, but has formed a long-legged doji candlestick pattern that can halt the rally."On Mon. Mar 4, the index touched an intra-day high of 2817, but formed a 'reversal day' bar by closing below the resistance zone (between 2800 and 2825). That was just the excuse bears needed to swing into action.The index corrected during the rest of the week, falling below its 20 day EMA but receiving support from its 50 day and 200 day EMAs. The 'golden cross' of the 50 day EMA above the 200 day EMA has not been a convincing one. The index lost 2.2% on a weekly closing basis.Daily technical indicators are looking bearish after correcting overbought conditions. MACD is falling below its signal line in bullish zone. RSI is seeking support from its 50% l..
                 

Gold and Silver charts: three month long rallies face sharp corrections

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
Gold chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Gold received good support from the middle Bollinger Band (20 day SMA, marked by green dotted line) and rose quickly to touch a high of 1349.80 on Feb 20.By closing above the upper Bollinger Band, the door was left wide open for bears. Gold's price corrected sharply below the lower Bollinger Band and closed below its 50 day EMA after more than three months.Daily technical indicators are showing downward momentum after correcting overbought conditions. MACD is falling below its signal line in bullish zone. RSI has dropped below its 50% level. Slow stochastic has entered its oversold zone, and can trigger a pullback towards the 50 day EMA.After a sharp fall below 96 on Feb 26, the US Dollar index is rising towards 97. That seems to have dampened bullish enthusiasm. The strong rally from the Nov '18 low has ended.On longer term weekly chart (not shown), gold’s price dropped to seek support from its 20 week EMA, and closed above its thr..
                 

WTI and Brent Crude Oil charts: overcome resistance zones but remain below 200 day EMAs

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
WTI Crude Oil chartJust when it appeared that bears were getting the upper hand, the daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil rallied smartly past its 20 day and 50 day EMAs and the 'support/resistance zone' (between 53 and 55).The bullish fervour didn't last long. The rally failed to reach its sliding 200 day EMA, and pulled back to the 'support/resistance zone' before bouncing up. Such a pullback usually provides a buying opportunity.Oil's price needs to close convincingly above the Fibonacci resistance zone between 59 and 63 (which are the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels of the fall from the Oct '18 top of 76 to the Dec '18 low of 42) before bulls can regain control of the chart.Daily technical indicators are in bullish zones but not showing much upward momentum. MACD is seeking support from its signal line in bullish zone. RSI is above its 50% level. Slow stochastic has fallen from its overbought zone. Some consolidation is likely before oil's price c..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Feb 22, 2019): sideways consolidations continue

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon. and Tue. (Feb 18 and 19) but turned net buyers on the last three days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 50.3 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on all five trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 46.5 Billion, as per provisional figures.On Fri. Feb 22, net buying by FIIs exceeded Rs 63 Billion, which turned them into net buyers month-to-date. A bulk deal in Kotak Mahindra Bank (ING sold its residual 3% holding) was the probable reason.Nifty's EPS for Q3 (Dec '18) hit an 11-quarter low of Rs 96.50. This is the first instance since Q1 (Jun '16) when the EPS slipped below Rs 100. It was also the 4th consecutive quarter of lower-than-estimated earnings for the Nifty 50 companies.BSE Sensex index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Sensex closed below the 200 day EMA on Mon. and Tue. (Feb 18 and 19) after 2 months - thanks mainly to FII selling.Just when it seemed bears were getting the upper hand, th..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Feb 15, 2019): pullback rallies gather strength

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternThe pullback rally from the Dec '18 low on the daily bar chart pattern of SPX 500 received good support from the 200 day EMA, and gathered strength as it climbed along the upper Bollinger Band.The index is trading above its three EMAs in bull territory. The 'golden cross' of the 50 day EMA above the 200 day EMA will technically confirm a bull market.Bears may try to prevent that from occurring by defending the 'resistance zone' between 2800 and 2825 - which had proved to be a strong hurdle for bulls back in Oct and Nov '18.Daily technical indicators are looking overbought. MACD is rising above its signal line in overbought zone. RSI is poised to enter its overbought zone. Slow stochastic has re-entered its overbought zone, but is showing negative divergence by touching a lower top. Some consolidation around current level is possible before the index makes an attempt to cross above the resistance zone. On longer term weekly chart (..
                 

WTI and Brent Crude Oil charts: counter-trend rallies struggling to overcome resistance zones

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
WTI Crude Oil chartThe daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil touched an intra-day high of 55.75 on Feb 4 - its highest level in nearly 3 months - but formed a 'reversal day' bar (higher high, lower close) that brought bears to the fore.Oil's price corrected below its converging 20 day and 50 day EMAs and closed below the 'Support/Resistance zone' (between 53 and 55) that is proving to be a tough hurdle for bulls.Daily technical indicators are looking bearish. MACD has crossed below its signal line after forming a 'rounding top' reversal pattern in bullish zone. RSI has slipped below its 50% level in neutral zone. Slow stochastic is falling below its 50% level.Some more correction or consolidation is likely.On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price faced strong resistance from its falling 20 week EMA and dropped to close well below its three weekly EMAs in long-term bear territory. Weekly technical indicators are looking neutral to bearish. Br..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Feb 06, 2019)

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon. (Feb 4), but net buyers on Tue. and Wed. (Feb 5 and 6). Their total net buying was worth Rs 10.0 Billion. DIIs were also net sellers of equity on Mon., but net buyers on Tue. and Wed. Their total net buying was worth Rs 6.5 Billion, as per provisional figures.After slipping to 53.2 in Dec '18, Nikkei India's Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.9 in Jan '19 - staying above the 50 mark (indicating growth) for the 18th straight month. However, Nikkei India's Services PMI declined to 52.2 in Jan '19 from 53.2 in Dec '18. The Composite PMI (Manufacturing+Services) was at 53.6 in Jan '19 - the same as in Dec '18.Passenger vehicle sales remained sluggish in Jan '19. While Honda showed 23% growth, Maruti, Hyundai, M&M sales were flat. Tata Motors, Toyota, Ford Renault, Volkswagen showed degrowth. In Commercial Vehicles, Ashok Leyland and M&M showed sales growth; Tata Motors showed degrowth.Bulls have turned the tables on bears during..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Feb 01, 2019): facing resistances from Fibonacci retracement zones

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on Tue. (Jan 29) but net buyers on the other four trading days. Their total net buying was worth a huge Rs 43.2 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on the first three trading days, but net sellers on Thu. and Fri. (Jan 31 and Feb 1). Their total net selling was worth Rs 9.6 Billion, as per provisional figures.For the month of Jan '19, FIIs were net buyers of equity worth Rs 1.3 Billion - thanks to massive buying worth Rs 30 Billion on the last day of the month. DIIs were net buyers of equity worth Rs 21.5 Billion.In a blow to government's job creation claims, an official survey conducted by NSSO during Jul '18 to Jun '17 showed India's unemployment rate was 6.1% - the highest since 1972-73. Spin doctors tried to downplay the findings by claiming the data was neither 'approved' nor 'final'.The interim budget announced on Feb 1 was expected to be populist in an election year, and it was. Benefits were a..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Jan 25, 2019): pullback rallies hit road blocks

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternNote the following comment from last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of SPX 500: "Bears can be expected to put up a stronger resistance when trading starts on Tue. Jan 22 (after the long weekend)."On cue, the index retreated on Tue. Jan 22 but received good support from its 50 day EMA. After consolidating sideways within a narrow range for the next two days, the index opened with an upward 'gap' on Fri. Jan 25, and crossed above the (purple) down trend line intra-day.However, it dropped down to close exactly on the down trend line - losing 6 points during the truncated trading week. Bulls have their work cut out to overcome twin overhead resistances from the upper Bollinger Band and the 200 day EMA. Bears are unlikely to give up control in a hurry.Daily technical indicators are in bullish zones, but not showing much upward momentum. MACD is rising above its signal line. RSI is moving sideways above its 50% level. Slow stochastic has bounce..
                 

Gold and Silver charts: bull rallies pullback after touching 6 month highs

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
Gold chart patternNote the following comments from the previous post on the daily bar chart pattern of Gold: "Formation of a 'reversal day' bar (higher high, lower close) with a surge in volumes have put a temporary halt to the rally. Some correction/consolidation can be expected after a hectic rally."Gold's price consolidated sideways within a small 'symmetrical triangle' for two weeks before a downward breakout occurred on Fri. Jan 18th. The 20 day EMA provided support - as it has done since the beginning of Dec '18. However, the support may not hold for long.Daily technical indicators are in bullish zones, but looking bearish and showing downward momentum. MACD has crossed below its signal line and is ready to drop from its overbought zone. RSI and Slow stochastic are falling towards their respective 50% levels.Gold's price may fall to the 'support/resistance zone' between 1260 and 1270 - where some support can be expected. A further fall and a test of support from the 200 day EMA c..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Jan 16, 2019)

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on Tue. (Jan 15), but net sellers on Mon. & Wed. (Jan 14 & 16). Their total net selling was worth Rs 6.6 Billion. DIIs were net buyers on all three trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 12.5 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's wholesale and retail inflation eased further in Dec '18 on the back of cooling food and fuel prices. CPI-based inflation slipped to an 18 months low of 2.19% from 2.33% in Nov '18 and 5.21% in Dec '17. WPI-based inflation was at an 8 months low of 3.8% against 4.64% in Nov '18 and 3.58% in Dec '17. A vicious battle for supremacy is raging on the daily bar chart pattern of Nifty, with no quarter given and none asked.On Mon. Jan 14, the index dropped below the 'diamond' pattern - within which it has been trading since the beginning of Nov '18 - and even slipped below its 200 day EMA into bear territory intra-day. Just when it looked like bears were going to dominate, bulls..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Jan 11, 2019): poised to breakout from 'diamond' patterns

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on Mon. and Wed. (Jan 7 and 9) but net sellers on the other three days during the week. Their total net selling was worth Rs 5.7 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon., but net buyers on the other four days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 11.3 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's IIP (Index of Industrial Production) dropped to a disappointing 17 months low of 0.5% in Nov '18 from an upwardly-revised 8.4% in Oct '18, due to a high base effect and a contraction in manufacturing growth. The previous low of 0.3% occurred in Jun '17 (a month before GST introduction).BSE Sensex index chart patternThe bearish 'rising wedge' pattern (refer last week's post) on the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex has morphed into a 'diamond' pattern, which usually has bearish implications. In other words, the likely breakout from the pattern is downwards.Since a 'diamond' - a somewhat rare pattern - ten..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Jan 04, 2019): pullback rallies facing bear resistance

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternIn a holiday shortened trading week, the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500 continued to show volatility. It closed just above 2505 on Mon. & Wed. (Dec 31 & Jan 2), dropped to close below 2450 on Thu. Jan 3, and then bounced up to close at 2532 on Fri. Jan 4 - gaining 46 points (1.8%) on a weekly closing basis.Note that the index is facing resistance from its 20 day SMA (middle Bollinger Band marked by green dotted line), and is trading well below its falling 50 day and 200 day EMAs in a bear market.Daily technical indicators have corrected oversold conditions, but remain in bearish zones. MACD has crossed above its signal line in its oversold zone. RSI and Slow stochastic are rising towards their respective 50% levels. Bears may use the pullback rally to sell.On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index closed above its 200 week EMA in long-term bull territory, but remains well below its falling 20 week and 50 w..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Dec 28, 2018): pullback after touching new lows

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternThe following comments were made in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500: "A spike in trading volumes is possibly an indication of a 'selling climax'. A technical bounce may follow." After closing below the lower Bollinger Band at 2351 on Dec 24 - a 20% correction from the (Sep 21) top of 2941 that confirms a bear market - the index recovered strongly on Boxing Day. It first touched a new low of 2347, and then recovered 121 points to close at 2468. Formation of a 'reversal day' bar (lower low, higher close) encouraged bulls to embark on a pullback rally that touched the holiday-shortened week's high of 2520 on Fri. Dec 28. The index closed with a weekly gain of 69 points (2.9%), but formed a small 'reversal day' bar (higher high, lower close) that may bring the pullback rally to an end. The index is trading well below its 200 day EMA in a bear market. Daily technical indicators are correcting ov..
                 

WTI and Brent Crude Oil charts: bottoms fall out as bear onslaught continues

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
WTI Crude Oil chartThe following comment was made in the previous post on the daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil: "Expect bears to remain in control despite the OPEC production cut because of demand slow down."Though the 'death cross' (marked by grey ellipse) had technically confirmed a bear market, bulls tried for the better part of two weeks to put a floor on oil's price at 50. Strong resistance from the plummeting 20 day EMA proved insurmountable. The temporary support at 50 was breached. Oil's price dropped sharply to close at 46.24 on Tue. Dec 18.That was a signal for bulls to turn tail and run. Oil's price dropped to its lowest level in 18 months, and closed below 43.Daily technical indicators are looking oversold and showing downward momentum. Slow stochastic is falling deeper inside its oversold zone. MACD and RSI are showing positive divergences by touching higher lows inside their respective oversold zones.Some price consolidation can be expected, as bull..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Dec 19, 2018)

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon. (Dec 17) but net buyers on Tue. & Wed. (Dec 18 & 19). Their total net buying was worth Rs 12.9 Billion. DIIs were net sellers on all three days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 7.4 Billion, as per provisional figures.Hong Kong based billionaire businessman Victor Fung has said that India has a window of opportunity in the midst of US-China trade war. The trade imbalance between China and India will get corrected as Chinese consumption of Indian goods increases.Due to demonetisation, the cost of printing currency notes escalated to Rs 79.65 Billion in FY 2016-17 from Rs 34.21 Billion in FY 2015-16, as per a written reply to the Rajya Sabha by the Finance Minister.FII buying extended the counter-trend rally on the daily bar chart pattern of Nifty. The index had consolidated inside the Oct 4 downward 'GAP' on Thu. & Fri. (Dec 13 & 14). On Mon. Dec 17, it moved above the 'GAP' once again and rose fur..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Dec 14, 2018): bulls refusing to accept bear dominance

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on Mon., Thu. & Fri. (Dec 10, 13 & 14), but net sellers on the other two days of the week. Their total net selling was worth Rs 20.7 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on Tue. & Wed. (Dec 11 & 12), but net sellers on the other three days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 28.8 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's WPI-based inflation fell to a three months low of 4.64% in Nov '18 from 5.28% in Oct '18 - mainly due to a decline in food and fuel prices. WPI was 4.02% in Nov '17.Exports grew only 0.8% to US $26.5 Billion in Nov '18, while imports grew 4.31% to US $43.17 Billion. Trade deficit widened to US $16.67 Billion. During Apr-Nov '18, trade deficit was US $128.13 Billion against US $106.37 Billion during Apr-Nov '17.BSE Sensex index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Sensex faced sharp sell-offs on Mon. Dec 10 and the early part of Tue. Dec 11, as state electi..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Dec 07, 2018): bears brook no nonsense from bulls

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternThe following comments appeared in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500: "The next hurdle for bulls is the previous (Nov 7) index top of 2815. Bears can be expected to put up some resistance there - as they had done in Oct '18."In a curtailed trading week, the index touched an intra-day high of 2800 on Mon. Dec 3. Bear resistance caused a drop to an intra-day low of 2773 before the index closed at 2790 (near its opening level) - forming a 'doji' candlestick pattern that some times mark a change of direction.The next day, the index fell sharply below its three EMAs into bear territory. After the mid-week holiday (due to President Bush's funeral), bears attacked with renewed vigour. The index touched an intra-day low of 2621, but recovered substantially to close at 2696.Bulls failed to drive home their advantage. The index touched an intra-day high of 2708 on Fri. Dec 7, but closed at 2633 - losing 127 points (4.6%) on a weekl..
                 

Gold and Silver charts: bears still on top

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
Gold chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of Gold has re-entered and closed inside the 'Support/Resistance zone' between 1230 & 1240 (refer previous post), and may make an attempt to test resistance from its falling 200 day EMA.Strong trading volumes during recent down days reveal that bears are very much on top. Expect bears to put up a fight to defend the long-term moving average and prevent gold's price from entering bull territory. Daily technical indicators are looking bullish. MACD has crossed above its '0' line to enter bullish zone. RSI is rising above its 50% level. Slow stochastic has entered its overbought zone.Some near-term upside is likely. Gold's price needs to move convincingly above its 200 day EMA and the 1280 level for bulls to regain control of the chart.On longer term weekly chart (not shown), gold’s price closed above its 20 week EMA, but below its 50 week and 200 week EMAs in long-term bear territory. Weekly technical in..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Nov 28, 2018)

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net buyers of equity on all three trading days this week. Their total net buying was worth Rs 18.3 Billion. DIIs were net sellers on Wed., but net buyers on Mon. & Tue. Their total net buying was worth Rs 0.53 Billion, as per provisional figures.The number of companies that failed to meet earnings expectations during Q2 (Sep '18) outnumbered the outperformers by 2.5 times. As many as 20 Nifty companies saw EPS downgrades against 8 with EPS upgrades of 3% or more.India Inc's foreign borrowings dipped nearly 66% to US $1.41 Billion in Oct '18 against US $4.09 Billion through ECBs and FCCBs in Oct '17.The daily bar chart pattern of Nifty had partly filled the downward 'gap' (of 89 points formed on Oct 4) by rising above its three EMAs to touch an intra-day high of 10775 on Nov 19.Bears attacked immediately. Nifty dropped below its three EMAs and touched an intra-day low of 10490 on Nov 26, but formed a 'reversal day' bar (lower low, hi..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Nov 22, 2018): bears show who's boss

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
In a holiday-shortened trading week, FIIs were net sellers of equity on Tue. & Wed. (Nov 20 & 21), but net buyers on Mon. & Thu. (Nov 19 & 22). Their total net selling was worth Rs 8.6 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on Wed. & Thu., but net sellers on Mon. & Tue. Their total net buying was worth Rs 3.0 Billion, as per provisional figures.OECD and Moody's have projected India's GDP growth to moderate to 7.3% in 2019, whereas RBI expects FY 2018-19 GDP growth at 7.4%. The recent decline in oil prices may reduce the Current Account Deficit (CAD) to 2.6% of GDP against the earlier expectation of 2.8%.With China's Belt and Road initiative facing a pushback, the UAE, Japan, France, Germany, Italy and UK are in talks with India to launch joint projects in Africa. Morocco has also expressed interest for joint projects in West Africa.BSE Sensex index chart patternNote the following comments from last week's post on the dail..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Nov 16, 2018): bears reluctantly give up some ground

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
After 7 straight months of being bears, FIIs have turned bulls in Nov '18. They were net sellers of equity on Tue. Nov 13, but net buyers on the other four days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 35 Billion. DIIs have turned bears for the first time since Mar '17. They were net buyers of equity on Tue., but net sellers on the other four days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 15.5 Billion, as per provisional figures.India's trade deficit widened to US $17.1 Billion in Oct '18 compared to US $14.6 Billion in Oct '17. Exports rose 17.9% to US $27 Billion due to low base effect. Imports rose 17.6% to US $44.1 Billion. During Apr-Oct '18, exports grew 13.3% to US $191 Billion. Imports grew 16.4% to US $302.5 Billion, leaving a trade deficit of US $111.5 Billion.BSE Sensex index chart patternThanks to FII buying, the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex rose above its 200 day and 50 day EMAs and closed above all three EMAs for the first time in more..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Nov 09, 2018): bears grudgingly give up some ground

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternThe daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500 climbed above its three EMAs back into bull territory on Wed. Nov 7. Bear selling dropped the index to seek support from its entangled 20 day and 200 day EMAs.The index bounced up to close just above 2780 with a gain of 2.1% on a weekly closing basis. However, bearish hopes have been kept alive as the index closed below its 50 day EMA.Daily technical indicators are giving conflicting signals. MACD is rising above its signal line in bearish zone. RSI is falling towards its 50% level after crossing above it. Stochastic is about to fall from its overbought zone. Expect some consolidation or correction.On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index closed just below its 20 week EMA but above its 50 week and 200 week EMAs in a long-term bull market. Weekly technical indicators are turning bullish. MACD is falling below its signal line in bullish zone, but its downw..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Nov 02, 2018): bulls fight back but bears not ready to give up control yet

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternThe following comments appeared in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500: "RSI and Slow stochastic are showing positive divergences by not falling lower with the index. A likely technical bounce may face more selling by bears."The expected technical bounce took the index briefly above the Fibonacci support/resistance zone between 2689 and 2737 (shaded area on chart) when the index closed at 2740 on Thu. Nov 1. On Fri. Nov 2, the index touched an intra-day high of 2756, but faced resistance from its falling 20 day EMA and dropped back inside the support/resistance zone - forming a 'reversal day' bar (higher high, lower close) in the process.Daily technical indicators have corrected oversold conditions but are not showing much upward momentum. MACD has crossed above its signal line in bearish zone. RSI bounced up from the edge of its oversold zone, but has stopped short of its 50% level. Stochastic crossed above ..
                 

WTI and Brent Crude Oil charts: sharp corrections find temporary support

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
WTI Crude Oil chartThe daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil started correcting after touching a 52 week high of 76.90 on Oct 3. After receiving some support from its 50 day EMA, oil's price dropped sharply below its 50 day EMA on Oct 17. Three days of sideways consolidation was followed by another sharp fall below its 200 day EMA on Oct 23. Since then, oil's price has been consolidating within a bearish 'flag' pattern. Some more consolidation/correction is likely.Daily technical indicators are looking bearish and oversold. MACD is falling below its signal line and entered its oversold zone. RSI is hovering just above its oversold zone. Slow stochastic is trying to emerge from its oversold zone.The falling 20 day EMA has crossed below the falling 50 day EMA - like it did in Jun & Aug '18 - indicating near term bearishness. However, oil's price is trading just above its 200 day EMA, keeping bullish hopes alive. On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price bounce..
                 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Oct 24, 2018)

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
FIIs were net sellers of equity on all three trading days this week. Their total net selling was worth Rs 29 Billion. DIIs were net buyers on all three days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 22.9 Billion, as per provisional figures.The net direct tax collection in India grew by 15.7% to Rs 4.89 Trillion YoY during the period Apr - Oct 3rd week, 2018 - meeting 42.5% of the full fiscal year target of Rs 11.5 Trillion.Tight monetary conditions for NBFCs may soon begin to hit the economy as funds for consumption and investment are slowly getting squeezed. Sale of motorcycles, tractors, plywood and cement have slowed in the past few weeks.The daily bar chart pattern of Nifty touched an intra-day low of 10102 on Tue. Oct 23 - its lowest level since Mar 28 '18. All gains made during Apr-Aug '18 got wiped out during Sep-Oct '18. The index is trading well below its three falling EMAs in bear territory. Daily technical indicators are in bearish zones, and are not..
                 

Sensex, Nifty charts (Oct 19, 2018): Fibonacci support levels holding for now

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
In a holiday-curtailed trading week, FIIs were net sellers of equity on Tue. & Fri. (Oct 16 & 19) but net buyers on Mon. & Wed. (Oct 15 & 17). Their total net selling was worth Rs 15.8 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on Mon. & Tue. but net sellers on Wed. & Fri. Their total net buying was worth Rs 10.1 Billion, as per provisional figures.Passenger vehicle sales have declined for three consecutive months due to floods in Kerala and higher ownership costs leading to postponement of purchases.As per RBI, India's foreign exchange reserves fell by US $5.1 Billion from $399.6 Billion in the week ending Oct 5 to $394.5 Billion in the week ending Oct 12. It was the highest weekly fall in 7 years.BSE Sensex index chart patternThe following remark was made in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex: "A pullback to the zone between 35370 and 35736, followed by a corrective move towards 32372 (lower edge of the support zone..
                 

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Oct 12, 2018): bears force bulls on the ropes

2 years ago  
Business / Blogs/ Subhankar Blog  
S&P 500 index chart patternPossibility of some more correction was mentioned in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500. Yet, the vicious bear attack on Wed. & Thu. (Oct 10 & 11) seemed to catch bulls unawares.The index fell vertically to close below its 200 day EMA for the first time in 6 months. By touching an intra-day low of 2710 on Oct 11, the index dropped into the support zone between 2737 and 2689 (which are the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels respectively of the 408 points rally from the Feb 9 low of 2533 to the Sep 21 top of 2941).Volume spikes on Wed. & Thu. may be the sign of a 'selling climax'. On Fri. Oct 12, the index bounced up to close above its 200 day EMA in bull territory. In the process, it formed an 'inside day' as well as a 'hammer' candlestick pattern. Bulls appear to be ready for a fight back.Daily technical indicators are looking oversold. MACD and Slow stochastic are falling deeper inside their respective over..